Fresh from a 20/1 winner in Antwerp last week, Andy Schooler returns with his best bets for the ATP tournaments in Vienna and Nur-Sultan.
Recommended bets:
1pt e.w. Andrey Rublev to win the Erste Bank Open at 12/1
0.5pts e.w. Pablo Carreno Busta to win the Erste Bank Open at 50/1
1pt e.w. Alexander Bublik to win the Astana Open at 12/1
0.5pts e.w. Mikhail Kukushkin to win the Astana Open at 28/1
Erste Bank Open
- Vienna, Austria (indoor hard)
Having lost ‘properly’ for the first time in 2020 in the French Open final, Novak Djokovic returns to action this week having taken the somewhat surprising decision to play in Vienna.
It’s been 13 years since he last appeared at this tournament. He won the title in 2007, although it was then played on a different type of indoor hardcourt – these days they are on Rebound Ace, as they have been since 2015.
The Serb arrives with plenty still to achieve in what was been another excellent year, even though it will end with just one of the three Grand Slam titles won.
He knows a deep run this week will secure the year-end world number one ranking for a sixth time, thus equalling Pete Sampras’ record.
Looking further forward, this is his sole warm-up for next month’s ATP Finals in London so he will certainly want matches under his belt in indoor conditions.
As with most events he enters, Djokovic starts a firm favourite, 11/10 being the best price about him claiming another trophy and, as I usually say when Djokovic is in the field, if he plays well, he’ll win.
Doubtless there will be plenty happy to back him, although those thinking of doing so should note the statistic that he has won just one of his last six indoor tournaments.
All six of those have been either those ATP Finals or the Paris Masters, ie high quality events, but although he technically steps down to 500-level here (the figure relates to the number of ranking points awarded to the winner), do not think he’s got it easy this week.
With the pandemic having forced the cancellation of the Swiss Indoors, which usually takes place this week in Basel, many more leading players have headed to Austria with the field containing six of the world’s top 10. The last direct acceptance was Hubert Hurkacz, ranked 31st.
Djokovic’s route to the final includes a tricky first-round match against compatriot Filip Krajinovic, a proven indoor performer and a player who beat the top seed at one of the summer’s exhibition events.
Borna Coric, a recent finalist in St Petersburg, could follow with Djokovic’s scheduled seeded opponents in the latter rounds being Diego Schwartzman, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Dominic Thiem.
Djokovic may be the most likely champion but at 11/10 I’ll happily take a more attractive option by seeking out a value play in the bottom half.
Home hope Thiem is the man seeded to reach the final from this section.
He had struggled in his homeland until last season when he won both here and in Kitzbuhel.
With such concerns now a thing of the past, the US Open champion certainly warrants respect.
However, this is his first foray indoors this year and there must be a chance he gets caught cold by a player already bedded into such conditions.
Likely second-round foe Stan Wawrinka is one such player who has been playing indoors recently and while Kei Nishikori doesn’t have the form to suggest he’ll beat Thiem in round one, he does hold a 3-2 lead on their head-to-head.
I think Thiem can be taken on and I’ll say the same about two other seeds in this half, Daniil Medvedev and Gael Monfils.
Medvedev has won just two of his last 10 indoor matches and faces Alex de Minaur in the first round.
The Antwerp finalist is worth considering at 45/1, while Medvedev’s likely second-round foe Felix Auger-Aliassime is another in-form and will have his backers at 35/1.
However, it is another big price I’ll take in this third quarter, namely PABLO CARRENO BUSTA at 50/1.
The Spaniard has been in fine form since the tour resumed in August, reaching the semi-finals of the US Open and the last eight at the French Open.
He moved indoors last week and lost in the first round in Antwerp to Ugo Humbert, but I pointed out how that was a tricky opener in my preview of that event here. PCB didn’t play badly but Humbert edged it 6-4 in the third and went on to justify our faith with the 20/1 shot going on to reach the final.
Carreno Busta can play indoors and conditions shouldn’t be too quick for him here – he won on a fairly slow indoor hardcourt in Moscow in 2016.
More recently, PCB made the semis in Rotterdam this year and at the back end of last season he was in the last four in Stockholm.
In Vienna 12 months ago, injury got the better of him as he was forced to quit his quarter-final with Thiem.
He’s the man facing Monfils first up but the Frenchman has looked a long way from his best of late and despite a decent record at this event, it’s hard to look past the fact he’s yet to win a match since lockdown ended.
Dennis Novak or Kevin Anderson in round two is far from the worst draw either.
Overall, I can see enough in Carreno Busta to warrant backing him to small stakes at 50/1 – it’s worth noting some firms have place terms of a third of the odds for a final spot rather than the usual half. I’ll take 50s with a firm who’ll pay a half, rather than 66s with one offering a third.
I’m also prepared to add ANDREY RUBLEV to the coupon in the bottom half at 12/1 given his impressive form.
He was the winner indoors in St Petersburg earlier this month, his victory over Coric in the final making it 14 wins from his last 15 matches.
Rublev, seeded fifth, will likely need to beat a higher-ranked player this week – something he didn’t have to do in St Petersburg – but he has been improving his record against the elite.
This year he’s 6-3 against top-20 opponents and 3-3 against the top 10.
The Russian could face Thiem in the last eight and he did win their last encounter. It was on clay but that’s no mean feat given the Austrian’s love of that surface.
Rublev has a much weaker record against Medvedev but I doubt he’ll still be around come the semi-final stage so I’m happy to chance the form player at 12/1, again taking half the odds in the each-way terms.
Astana Open
- Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan (indoor hard)
The last of the hastily-arranged one-off ATP events takes place in Nur-Sultan, the capital of Kazakhstan, this week.
With just six top-50 players in attendance, it’s not the best line-up you’ll see and the layers don’t really seem to have much of an idea about the likely winner – it’s 11/1 the field.
To be fair to them, it does look a tricky puzzle to solve but I’m happy to base my bets on my initial thoughts – that home players will go well.
I’m a big believer that when competitors are in familiar surroundings they perform well and that will only really be the case for the Kazakhs this week.
Kazakhstan has never before staged an ATP-level event but the home contingent have often played in Nur-Sultan in the past, notably in the Davis Cup.
The Kazakhs have punched well above their weight in the team competition for many years now, reaching the quarter-finals on five occasions in the past decade and almost upsetting Switzerland in the year they won the famous trophy (2014).
Much of their success has come in home ties - they’ve won their last seven and 12 of the last 13 - with opponents arriving in unknown territory and struggling to adapt.
For example, this week players will find temperatures outside as low as -8C.
Inside, the court will be made a Greenset one – the company chosen to provide the surface for their recent Davis Cup ties.
Unfortunately, the two Kazakhs most likely to launch a title bid – ALEXANDER BUBLIK and MIKHAIL KUKUSHKIN – are both in the top half of the draw.
I’ll still back them both, but will choose Bublik to carry a bigger portion of the betting bank.
Bublik made the semis indoors in Marseille earlier this season where his strong serve won him plenty of free points. He also banged down the aces in the speedy Chengdu conditions last year en route to the final.
It might not be as quick this week but Bublik will still be a threat.
He was in good form on the clay, reaching the last eight in Hamburg and defeating Gael Monfils at the French Open, and while he was well beaten when moving indoors in St Petersburg, there’s no-one of Milos Raonic’s class here this week.
A fairly soft opening couple of rounds should allow him to play himself into this event so he gets the nod at 12/1.
As for Kukushkin, he’s been rock on which Kazakhstan have built their Davis Cup success, racking up a 26-15 record in singles. He’s often delivered on home soil, although sadly he won’t have fan support this time, with the event being played behind closed doors.
I picked him out a couple of weeks ago in St Petersburg where he lost a tight encounter in he first round but that followed good wins over Cristian Garin (US Open) and Fabio Fognini (French Open) so there have been signs he can put a good run together.
If it is to arrive, it will surely come indoors where his only previous ATP title came (in St Petersburg). He has also been a runner-up at the Moscow event, while last season he made the final in Marseille.
He should beat Federico Delbonis in his opening match and if he does he’ll face top seed Benoit Paire, or Mr Unreliable as many will regard the man who recently tested positive for COVID-19.
With Jordan Thompson the other seed in this quarter, Kukushkin has a good chance to go deep and I’ll back him at 28/1.
In the bottom half, I’ll have another try with EGOR GERASIMOV at 33/1.
He let no-one down with his performance against Felix Auger-Aliassime in Cologne last week, agonisingly losing 7-6 in the decider.
It was the match he needed to win to really get in amongst it as a big outsider and he almost pulled it off. Had he progressed, he would have had every chance of making the final at 80/1.
The Belarusian posted some good serving numbers across his two matches in Germany and if he can put the disappointment of his narrow loss to one side, he should be able to contend here.
This time, a key match will come in round one with last week’s Antwerp quarter-finalist Lloyd Harris his opening foe.
The big-serving South African is favourite with one firm but that looks an over-reaction and I’ll happily give Gerasimov another go at the price.
Posted at 1600 BST on 25/10/20
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