Our tennis man Andy Schooler has 40/1 and 50/1 shots for this week’s ATP Masters 1000 tournament, the National Bank Open, in Toronto.
Tennis betting tips: National Bank Open
1pt e.w. John Isner at 50/1 (Bet365 1/2 1-2)
1pt e.w. Roberto Bautista Agut at 40/1 (BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes 1/2 1-2)
National Bank Open
- Toronto, Canada (outdoor hard)
I’ve often reeled out the stats surrounding the ‘Big Four’ and the ATP’s Masters 1000 events. Surely one more time won’t hurt?
Seventy-four of the last 94 such tournaments have gone to one of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray – a 79% hit-rate.
At this Canadian Masters event, it’s an even higher 88% (14 out of 16).
However, only one of the famous quartet will be in Toronto this year – and Nadal was a long way off his brilliant best when losing his second match in Washington last week to Lloyd Harris.
Nadal won the event the last time it was staged in Toronto in 2018, while he’s also the defending champion of the split-venue tournament, having won it in Montreal two years ago.
The difference this year is that the old DecoTurf hardcourts have been ripped up and replaced by Laykold to mirror the changes brought in at last season’s US Open.
In New York, the court speed increased, although the two stadium courts played significantly slower. That was far from ideal but at a more open venue, you expect a better equilibrium.
Toronto was already one of the faster venues so the differences might not be as obvious as they were at Flushing Meadows last year, still it should play fairly quick.
That’s not ideal for Nadal, who only returned to action in Washington after eight weeks off.
He could face Harris again in his first match here, while the big-serving Reilly Opelka is the other option.
Both are players capable of denying him rhythm on this surface, as is potential third-round foe Nick Kyrgios, who always seems to raise his game for the big matches.
I’m happy to swerve Nadal, even at Coral and Ladbrokes’ standout 9/2.
Of the favourites, Daniil Medvedev looks a better bet at 7/2.
The Russian enjoyed the North American hardcourt season in 2019 where he won 20 of his 23 matches so perhaps this is the event in which he’ll click back into gear.
He’s been far from poor this season but it’s also fair to say he hasn’t lived up to the expectations set when he sparkled at the year-ending ATP Cup last November.
Pablo Carreno Busta ended his Olympic dream at the quarter-final stage in Tokyo, stretching his run without an outdoor hardcourt title to almost two years.
A tricky draw is also rather off-putting – Alexander Bublik or Dan Evans up first, followed, potentially, by Washington finalist Jannik Sinner.
I can therefore leave Medvedev alone on this occasion and I’ll say the same about Stefanos Tsitsipas – winner of just three of his last seven matches – and Andrey Rublev, whose strong start to the campaign is beginning to flatten out.
Since beating Nadal on route to the Monte Carlo final, the Russian has made it past the quarter-finals at only one of his seven tournaments.
Isner too good to pass up
So having picked holes in those at the top of the market, it’s back to my favoured plan of seeking out some each-way value.
I’ll start with JOHN ISNER, a player whose big serve is well suited to fast conditions.
He regularly delivers at this time of year and has already hit the target during the current hardcourt swing having claimed the title in Atlanta last weekend.
His decision to skip Washington should leave him well rested and ready to go here.
Admittedly, his record in Canada is nothing like his one in Atlanta, although he has been to the semis in Toronto before.
But with those new courts in play, I’m happy to back him at 50/1.
Isner has a good draw having landed in a section containing seeds Cristian Garin and Rublev.
Garin does little of note off the clay, while I’ve already talked about Rublev’s dip in form – the run mentioned included a defeat to Isner in the fast conditions of Madrid.
If he comes through that part of the draw, home hope Denis Shapovalov could lie in wait at the quarter-final stage. The pair have never met before and it would likely be a serve-dominated battle.
In short, I think there’s some juice in Isner’s price and the American is worth a try to small stakes.
Could RBA pull off a shock?
On the other side of the draw, conditions could suit Aslan Karatsev but the Russian is in a really testing section with Olympic silver medallist Karen Khachanov or Los Cabos champion Cameron Norrie first up.
Tsitsipas could follow – if the Greek gets past Ugo Humbert or Lorenzo Sonego.
Any of those players are capable of progressing to the last 16. Some will be happy to back Karatsev at 33/1 – I was also tempted by Khachanov at 45/1 given how he played in Tokyo – but it’s too much of a minefield for me.
Instead, I’ll turn to ROBERTO BAUTISTA AGUT, who looks to be in a much kinder section with Diego Schwartzman the seed he’s due to meet at the last eight.
I’ve mentioned RBA’s disappointing results on clay this season in recent columns but his record on hardcourts in 2021 is a strong one.
He was runner-up in Montpellier and Doha - where he delivered each-way profits to Sporting Life readers - and also reached the semis in Miami, where they also play on a Laykold surface.
That helps ease concerns that it may be a tad quick for the Spaniard this week.
A return to the hardcourts looks to be just what he needs right now and he should get a chance to play his way in.
He’ll face a qualifier or Vasek Pospisil first up, the Canadian having struggled for wins since returning to the tour in Halle after almost three months out.
Schwartzman or Mackenzie McDonald could follow. The latter is due to contest the Washington final at the time of writing. He’s clearly in form but after a big physical and mental effort last week, expecting more may be asking too much, especially in a much stronger field.
RBA would face the winner of Nadal’s section in the quarter-finals.
In a tournament that looks very open, Bautista Agut makes the coupon at 40/1.
Published at 1700 BST on 08/08/21
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