After two near-misses last week, Andy Schooler picks out 50/1, 66/1 and 125/1 shots for this week's Paris Masters.
Heading into the weekend I was very much hopeful of adding further profits to the recent good run but both Juan Martin del Potro and Venus Williams were beaten in their respective finals.
There was no disgrace in 7/1 pick Del Potro losing to Roger Federer in Basel but to do so from a set up and then a break up in the final set was particularly frustrating.
With that result coming on the back of 9/1 shot Williams’ first defeat in eight career meetings with Caroline Wozniacki, it made for an awful Sunday in Chez Schooler.
While my record will simply show a loss, I know some of you at least traded out for a profit – Del Potro would have gone odds-on during the final, while clearly Venus was significantly shorter come finals day. And that’s before mentioning that Vienna picks Jan-Lennard Struff and Richard Gasquet both saw their odds tumble before losing as favourites in the quarter-finals.
Any way, enough of my sob-story and on to this week’s action – the Paris Masters looks another good opportunity to take on the big names and, hopefully, find a big-priced winner.
Paris Rolex Masters, indoor hard, Paris, France
With Roger Federer opting to rest up ahead of the forthcoming ATP Finals following his latest Basel title, Rafael Nadal is the only one of the ‘Big Four’ competing this week and he looks a very opposable favourite at around 6/4.
This is one of three Masters 1000 tournaments Nadal has never won and with pacy conditions expected indoors in Bercy, this isn’t the ideal venue for the world number one.
Nadal will likely gain the one win he needs this week to secure the year-end top ranking but asking him to go all the way is asking a lot, especially with London on the horizon, not to mention the fact that he skipped Basel citing a knee injury. The problem joint was somewhat worryingly taped up the last time we saw him in action at fortnight ago in Shanghai.
At a tournament which has provided plenty of surprise finalists over the years – no doubt a product of its closeness to the season-ending ATP Finals - I can’t touch Nadal at his current price and am more than happy to look around for bigger-priced alternatives.
First up, let’s consider the type of player we’re looking for here.
In 2016 the court speed was raised significantly and the event duly produced a semi-final line-up of Andy Murray, Milos Raonic, John Isner and Marin Cilic.
That’s more of an old-school indoor semi-final line-up. Plenty of big servers playing first-strike tennis.
With two spots in those ATP Finals still up for grabs, it also worth considering players who have much to gain this week.
Americans John Isner and Sam Querrey tick both boxes.
While it’s unlikely, Isner could still reach London, while Querrey has a very realistic chance. Both have the big serve which will do some damage if, as qualifying suggests, the courts play similar to 12 months ago.
It’s fair to say both men’s form has faded since the summer but then neither has been met with such favourable conditions for a while. And, most importantly, we’ve not been offered big prices about either man like this week.
Isner has a reputation for failing to produce his best tennis outside North America but he made the final here last year and wasn’t too far away from beating then-man-of-the-moment Murray.
He arrives after a decent-enough Asian swing, one which saw him play well in Beijing only to come up against Nadal in the quarter-finals. He duly lost a tight one. In Shanghai, he made the last 16.
Last week, Isner took the somewhat strange decision to head to Vienna where the slow courts were never going to suit and he lost early to Philipp Kohlschreiber. I’m prepared to write that off and take a chance on the 32-year-old at odds of 66/1 (Paddy Power).
Querrey’s year has been a career-best, highlighted by his run to the Wimbledon semis.
We saw what he serve can do in SW19 and I’m sure he’ll be aiming for a return to London. In order to do so, he’ll need a good run here and he’s been placed in a nice section of the draw to make that eminently possible.
Pablo Carreno Busta is the other seed in his section but the Spaniard has struggled since his US Open semi-final run.
Nadal is a possible quarter-final opponent but the last eight is around the time we’ve often seen the big guns throw in a disappointing performance here and a loss for the top seed against Querrey’s big serve in slick conditions would not be the greatest surprise in the world.
Like Isner, Querrey made the last 16 of the last Masters event in Shanghai and lost early in Vienna (although he won’t have too many days when he converts just two of 14 break points) but given the considerable change of conditions expected – plus a widely-available price of 50/1 - I’m tempted in.
Finally, I’m also going for an outsider in the bottom half of the draw where Marin Cilic is the man priced up to make the final.
That’s fair enough and I can see the Croat having his backers – he’s played some excellent tennis this year, has the aggressive game to thrive here and made the semis 12 months ago.
However, he wasn’t at his best last week in Basel, narrowly avoiding a quarter-final upset before losing to Del Potro, and you wonder if he’ll really want to go all the way this week with London looming.
I’m going to take him on with another of last week’s picks, namely Jan-Lennard Struff, who is offered at 125/1 by 10Bet and SportPesa.
He qualified impressively over the weekend, posting more good serving numbers, and is a likely first foe for Cilic.
Struff has beaten both Tsonga and Kevin Anderson indoors in recent weeks and if he keeps serving as he has been doing then he should pose some problems in Paris.
He lost his only previous meeting with Cilic but did take the first set of that contest and certainly has potential in this part of the draw, especially for those who like to back to lay.
Where to watch: Sky Sports.
Recommended bets
0.5pt e.w. Sam Querrey at 50/1
0.5pt e.w. Jan-Lennard Struff at 125/1
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Posted at 2315 GMT on 29/10/17.