Andy Schooler offers his verdict on this week’s action including the Mexican Open in Acapulco which includes selections at 13/2, 35/1 and 40/1.
Tennis betting tips: Dubai Duty Free Championships & Abierto Mexicano Telcel
0.5pt e.w. John Isner to win the Abierto Mexicano Telcel at 40/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt e.w. Kevin Anderson to win the Abierto Mexicano Telcel at 35/1 (NON-RUNNER)
1pt Cameron Norrie to win the third quarter of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt e.w. Dan Evans to win the Dubai Duty Free Championships at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, bet365)
0.5pt e.w. Filip Krajinovic to win the Dubai Duty Free Championships at 50/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Abierto Mexicano Telcel
- Acapulco, Mexico (outdoor hard)
Seven of the world’s top 20 have gathered in Acapulco for what looks a tricky tournament to unravel.
They play on what tends to be a pretty slow hardcourt – Solflex the exact type – and previous winners have been split into two distinct camps.
The big servers have enjoyed their stay, winning three of the last four editions with Nick Kyrgios, Juan Martin del Potro and Sam Querrey blasting their way to the trophy in recent years.
But last year Rafael Nadal triumphed and David Ferrer is another who has won with his groundstrokes from the baseline.
The situation is replicated at Mexico’s other ATP event, one which also uses the Solflex surface, Los Cabos.
There the winners have been Diego Schwartzman and Fabio Fognini – both happy on slow hardcourts – plus Querrey and Ivo Karolovic from the serving camp.
I’m subsequently looking for someone from each bracket.
Despite the strength of the draw, there are two clear favourites – Stefanos Tsitspias and Alex Zverev.
Of the two, I prefer Zverev, who has performed well here in the past, reaching the final in 2019 and the semis the previous year.
Zverev played well in Australia, pushing Novak Djokovic hard in the last eight. His quarter looks pretty soft, although his first-round clash with wonderkid Carlos Alcaraz may get interesting if the young Spaniard brings his A-game – as he did when beating David Goffin in Melbourne last month.
Another concern would be how he is mentally after a week which saw his ex-girlfriend give birth to his son.
I’d want to be more convinced abut Zverev to be backing him at 7/2.
Neither am I massively keen on top seed Tsitsipas at 4/1.
He arrives here from the much different conditions (fast indoor hard) of Marseille where he was beaten in his second match.
He has a tough draw which could involve having to beat Benoit Paire, John Isner and Felix Auger-Aliassime just to reach the semis, where he is seeded to meet Diego Schwartzman.
Basically, I’m happy to look elsewhere and in the top half I’m prepared to take a chance on two from the big-serving camp.
Having skipped the Australian swing and its accompanying quarantine period in order to stay at home with his young family, JOHN ISNER has been waiting for this vent for a while.
He should be well prepared, although of course the lack of match practice has to be a concern – he’s not played since Delray Beach in January where he lost to eventual runner-up Seb Korda.
Still, Isner has made the semi-finals on each of his last two visits to Acapulco and his huge delivery and none-too-shabby forehand will cut through the court here.
He’s performed well on slow hardcourts of Indian Wells in the past – admittedly he gets a bit more help there from the dry desert air – but I think the giant American looks a bit big at 40/1 in conditions which should suit.
Provided he sees off Salvatore Caruso first up – and the Italian doesn’t have a great record against big servers - Isner is likely to face Tsitsipas in round two and their matches have been riddled with tie-breaks in the past. Their head-to-head stands at 2-2. Their most recent clash was very tight, the Greek winning in two tie-breaks at last season’s New York Masters event.
If he does get to the last eight, Isner will be into his stride and that could be the key this week given the standing start he’s coming from.
I’m also going to take a chance on KEVIN ANDERSON, another player with a big delivery who has gone well at this event in the past.
He’s twice made the Acapulco final, most recently in 2018.
Injuries have struck too often since then though – that’s the worry which will put some people off.
Yet there were some good signs from the South African in Australia earlier in the year where the serve worked pretty well. He only lost to good players in Karen Khachanov and Matteo Berrettini so I’m happy to take the risk at 35/1, albeit to small stakes.
He’s 3-1 up on opening opponent Frances Tiafoe, who has to adjust from the claycourts of South America, and 2-1 ahead against Diego Schwartzman, the third seed whom he could meet in round two. That record includes winning their only hardcourt meeting.
Anderson’s head-to-head with seeded quarter-final opponent Grigor Dimitrov isn’t so good (2-6) but he did win their most recent clash and virtually every match has been close in that series.
Dimitrov is a player I did consider. He again started the year well in Melbourne with only a back spasm arguably denying him a place in the last four of the Australian Open.
He has a strong record there and Acapulco is another venue where he’s consistently performed, winning the first time it was staged on hardcourts in 2014 and making the semis last year.
I’ve decided against backing him at 12/1 but there’s every chance he does go deep again.
For my final pick I’ll move into the bottom half where CAMERON NORRIE may surprise a few.
The Briton has really enjoyed his trips to Mexico in recent years, reaching the semi-finals in Acapulco in 2019 and the same stage in Los Cabos in 2018.
Norrie has already been to the semi-finals on a hardcourt this season, opening the season that way in Delray Beach. He then beat compatriot Dan Evans en route to the third round of the Australian Open where he gave Rafael Nadal a decent test.
There were also some decent signs in Rotterdam last week where Norrie came through qualifying in convincing fashion before losing to Khachanov in the second round of the main draw.
I expect he’ll be glad to be back outdoors and a decent draw can help him go well.
He’ll start against a qualifier with his first seeded foe due to be Fabio Fognini. The Italian is notoriously up and down and although he’s a former champion here, don’t be surprised to see him flop early.
Milos Raonic would be a tougher test in the quarter-finals but the Canadian faces Tommy Paul in round one – that’s a tricky encounter in what will be his first outing since the Australian Open.
Norrie is 50/1 each way which I wouldn’t put anyone off but perhaps a better bet is to take Sky Bet’s 13/2 about him winning his quarter.
He’s been to the semis seven times at Tour level but only won one of those matches. With Zverev most likely waiting in the last four this time, that’s the way I’ll go in a bid to make a profit.
Dubai Duty Free Championships
- Dubai, UAE (outdoor hard)
The second of back-to-back events in the Middle East gets under way on Sunday with another strong field having assembled in Dubai.
Many of those in attendance have arrived from nearby Doha but with this being a 46-field there looks to be greater strength in depth with few in the ‘also-rans’ bracket.
Despite the late withdrawals of Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka, six of the world’s top 20 do play, led by US Open champion Dominic Thiem.
As I suggested in last week’s profitable preview, Thiem wasn’t in the best of nick following several weeks off. He’ll be better for the run (excuse the racing parlance - it is the Cheltenham Festival this week) but the Austrian is probably worth taking on again at 9/2.
I suspect conditions here may be a bit quick for Thiem.
They play on DecoTurf II, the surface of the US Open until it was dug up and replaced last year.
This has been a happy hunting ground for Federer over the years with the conditions undoubtedly helping.
The courts are at their quickest in the day session and it tends to slow down a tad in the cooler evening. That said, temperatures will still likely be above 20C later in the day.
Favourite Andrey Rublev is one capable of making the most of the conditions but his second serve was taken apart by Roberto Bautista Agut in Doha on Friday – a worrying sign for anyone looking to back him this week at around 100/30.
Rublev is the second seed with other top names in the bottom half of the draw including Doha runner-up Bautista Agut and his fellow Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta.
RBA delivered for us last week, placing at 16/1, but asking him to make back-to-back finals may be too much, even given the fact he’s a former champion here.
The 32-year-old did play well last week before running into an inspired Nikoloz Basilashvili, beating both Thiem and Rublev en route to the final.
However, only last month we saw how he struggled to back up – after leaving Montpellier as runner-up, he lost in the first round in Rotterdam with a disappointing display. He’s never played two finals in as many weeks so I can overlook him on this occasion.
As for Carreno Busta, he’s playing for the first time since picking up an injury at the Australian Open over a month ago and is another who may find it a bit fast.
So if not the main seeds, who in this section?
Well, bet365’s 150/1 about Basilashvili will look big if he continues playing like he did last week, although you’d have to think that his success probably took a lot out of him emotionally after such a barren run prior to the tournament.
I also think Jordan Thompson is too big at 250/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair) here. He played well on the Australian hardcourts before becoming another injury victim – he’ll certainly be a tricky opponent for Rublev if they meet in the Russian’s first match of the event but perhaps backing him for the upset there is the better option.
Some will take Jannik Sinner, although he’s pretty short at 9/1, especially given he was well beaten by Daniil Medvedev in Marseille last week. He also has the indoor-to-outdoor transition to make.
Instead I’m going to back Briton DAN EVANS at 33/1.
He made the semis here last season, beating Rublev along the way, and is certainly a player who looks suited to the conditions.
Happy to come forward when the chance arises, Evans has the volleying skills to kill points when his opponent is given less time by the ball coming through the court.
He showed that in Melbourne last month when he won the Murray River Open, when picked out by this column at 33/1.
Since his efforts Down Under he’s spent plenty of time practising with Roger Federer here in Dubai before returning to the match court last week in Doha where he beat the in-form Jeremy Chardy before losing 7-5 in the final set to Federer.
The draw has been kinder this week. While Aslan Karatsev or Egor Gerasimov first up is far from easy, Wawrinka’s withdrawal has already taken a higher seed out of his path. Evans is now seeded to meet Bautista Agut in the quarter-finals, although Sinner is another potential foe at that stage.
Rublev could follow, although Evans has won their last two matches, including that quarter-final victory here just over 12 months ago.
In short, Evans looks a decent price.
I’ll also try an each-way shot in the top half, namely FILIP KRAJINOVIC.
The Serb, who took eventual runner-up Medvedev to five sets at the Australian Open, returned to the tour last week in Doha but lost in the first round to the in-form David Goffin.
I can forgive him that result and the faster conditions here offer him a greater chance.
Admittedly Krajinovic usually gains his best result on a slick indoor court but he’s had some good results on faster outdoor hardcourts too.
Melbourne played quick this year, while at last season’s Masters event in New York, it’s very much worth remembering how his serve took Thiem apart – the Austrian winning only two points on the Serb’s serve in a 6-2 6-1 defeat.
The pair could meet in round three here.
That would be the big hurdle to overcome with Goffin and Denis Shapovalov the other men he’d need to beat if the seedings were to play out.
Still, I don’t think that’s a particularly bad draw – Goffin and Shapovalov both lost to the big-serving Taylor Fritz in Doha last week and Krajinovic has a not-dissimilar game which can cause most opponents problems.
He’s chalked up at 50/1 which looks generous.
Published at 1710 GMT on 14/03/21
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