After a couple of profitable days at the French Open, Andy Schooler returns with his best bets for Thursday’s action at Roland Garros.
Tennis betting tips: French Open, Thursday June 3
1pt James Duckworth to beat Ricardas Berankis at 2/1 (general)
1.5pt Marco Cecchinato to beat Alex de Minaur at 4/5 (general)
1pt Astra Sharma to beat Ons Jabeur at 7/2 (bet365)
James Duckworth v Ricardas Berankis
Berankis helped followers of this column land a winner in his first-round match but he’s surely too short to win this contest.
He was the underdog in round one against a low-on-confidence Ugo Humbert, whose game style would have suited him, as I explained the other day.
This time, though, he comes in as the favourite against a player bubbling with confidence after an impressive win over claycourt specialist Salvatore Caruso.
The Lithuanian has only won 11 of his 36 tour-level matches on clay – admittedly three of the wins have come this season – and only twice has he managed back-to-back victories. One of those ‘streaks’ came in a Davis Cup tie against Morocco when neither opponent had a ranking inside the top 400.
In short, I can’t see how he’s justified as being a 4/9 shot.
Like Berankis, it’s fair to say Duckworth doesn’t have a great track record on this surface. I’m sure both men would like to be playing on something else, but the Australian made good use of his first serve on Tuesday, conjuring up 15 aces and winning 78% of points behind it.
The second serve was more of an issue, an area Duckworth will look to improve on, but he should get chances on the return - Berankis faced 19 break points against him during his victory over Humbert.
Essentially this is a bet on price – I can’t have Duckworth as a 2/1 chance to win this match, so will bet accordingly.
Alex de Minaur v Marco Cecchinato
Cecchinato has shown an uptick in form in recent weeks and I’m happy to back him in what is almost a pick ‘em against De Minaur.
He was runner-up in Parma last week, where he beat decent clay sorts in Jaume Munar and Aljaz Bedene, among others. He also defeated Frances Tiafoe and Roberto Carballes Baena in Madrid.
He started this event with a first-round victory over Yasutaka Uchiyama, and the surprise 2018 Roland Garros semi-finalist should certainly cause problems for De Minaur, who is far from a natural on this surface.
He’s gone only 4-4 on the European clay so far this season, and while his run-all-day attitude will keep him in plenty of points, he too often comes up against a player whose movement and shot placement is too good on this surface – essentially someone who just does his thing a bit better.
Their two previous clay matches have both been won by the Italian, including here last season when Cecchinato won in straight sets.
Conditions then were cooler, and while the temperature will be nowhere near as low on Thursday, expected rain may well dull what have been speedy conditions so far this year, which should work to Cecchinato’s advantage.
Astra Sharma v Ons Jabeur
Jabeur has been a great improver over the past couple of years and likes to play on clay, but she looks too short for this contest.
The primary reason is that these two played only six weeks ago, with Sharma running out the victor in the final of the MUSC Health Open in Charleston.
Admittedly, the green clay of South Carolina plays a bit differently to the red dirt of Roland Garros, but I still don’t see how that justifies the price of 7/2 about another Sharma win.
She lost serve only once in her first-round win over qualifier Irina Bala, and will now face a player whose preparation has been injury-hit. Prior to her opening victory in Paris, Jabeur had not played since Madrid due to a thigh problem.
Again, this is a price play with Sharma looking too big in the match betting. A handicap play would not look too shabby either.
Posted at 1845 BST on 02/06/2021
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