Sam Stosur can profit from a wide-open French Open women's draw says our Andy Schooler, who also has a 125/1 shot in his preview.
Recommended bets: French Open, women
1pt e.w. Sam Stosur to win the title at 40/1
1pt Daria Gavrilova to win the second quarter at 20/1
0.5pt e.w Marketa Vondrousova to win the title at 125/1
0.5pt Alison van Uytvanck to win the fourth quarter at 100/1
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Francesca Schiavone won the 2010 French Open at a triple-figure price and I wouldn’t be that surprised to see something similar unfold at Roland Garros over the next fortnight.
With the pregnant Serena Williams absent and Maria Sharapova failing to secure the wild card she needed to play, this is the most wide-open women’s Grand Slam for years.
Williams and Sharapova have won four of the last five titles here and with those two missing, there are just three former champions in the field – and two of those meet in round one.
The favourite is a drifting 11/2 shot who at time of writing isn’t even sure she’ll play and with injury doubts surrounding several other leading contenders, there looks to be every chance of an outsider emerging from the draw.
Of course, picking that person is somewhat harder than opposing the favourites but I’m here to try.
Some won’t agree with the tactic and will be happy to take a chance on one of the many leading names who have arriving in Paris under an injury cloud.
However, certainly at this point I’d be very reluctant to do that.
A scan through the head of the market quickly provides reasons to look elsewhere.
Let’s start with Simona Halep, the bookies’ favourite. Yes, she’s probably shown the best form in the claycourt season, winning in Madrid and finishing runner-up in Rome but the final of the latter event was played at a cost, the Romanian twisting her ankle.
Speaking in Paris on Friday, Halep admitted she didn’t want to hide the fact she was saddened by the injury setback and although she said she was now more likely to play than not, she would not commit to playing her first-round match until after a scan on Saturday. That’s hardly inspiring confidence.
Next on the list is Elina Svitolina, the player who beat Halep in Rome. It was her fourth WTA title of the year and she now leads the ‘Race to Singapore’ having earned more ranking points than any other player so far in 2017.
However, scratch beneath the surface and her claycourt form is not as impressive as it may at first seem. Victory in Istanbul came without meeting a top-50 player, while wins over both Garbine Muguruza and Halep in Rome came with both players nursing injuries.
Svitolina has been to the second week of a Slam just once in 18 previous attempts and her form guarantees her plenty of attention in Paris – something she’s not really used to. She may deal with the pressure well but her price is plenty short enough so I won’t pay to find out.
It’s a similar scenario for the great French hope Kiki Mladenovic, backed in after final runs in Stuttgart and Madrid. She’ll face huge scrutiny now and the slower conditions likely to be on show won’t aid her big-serving game, which even she admits is better suited to the faster surfaces. Plenty of French players before her have found the pressure too much to handle in Paris so again I can leave her out.
After a pretty miserable 2017, defending champion Muguruza finally found some form in Rome but then was forced out with a neck problem which is a concern, while both Angelique Kerber and Karolina Pliskova, the top two seeds, have shown little on clay to suggest they will contend here and you suspect both can’t wait to get onto the grass.
That leaves just one player under 33/1 and that’s Svetlana Kuznetsova, who I can make an argument for – indeed readers of our ante-post column What Happens Next? will know I did just that a few weeks ago when she was at that price of 33/1.
The problem is she’s now just 12/1 after showing some decent form while her rivals’ hopes took a turn for the worse.
The 2009 champion has been a pretty consistent performer in this Slam with three quarter-finals reached since that success. Last season it took eventual champ Muguruza to beat her.
She has a decent enough draw but she’s also almost 32 now and hasn’t been in a Grand Slam semi-final since her success here eight years ago. Again, at 33/1 that might've been a risk worth taking, but at 12/1 Kuznetsova can be left alone.
So let’s look for outsiders who have the potential to take advantage of what appears to be a good set of circumstances for long-shot backers.
I’m going to highlight one player from each quarter, starting with Sam Stosur in the top section.
She’s been a favourite of mine at the French Open over the years, ever since I backed her each-way at a tasty price in 2010. She was the beaten finalist on that occasion.
The Australian with a cracking kick serve has also been to three semi-finals in Paris – in 2009, 2012 and 2016. In '09 and '16 she lost to the eventual champion, while in 2014 and 2015 her Paris hopes were ended by Sharapova. In short, it usually takes a very good player to stop her here.
Petra Kvitova, who hasn’t played in almost seven months, and an out-of-sorts Kerber are her scheduled seeded opponents before the quarter-finals where Kuznetsova or Kiki Bertens – another with potential to go well at a decent price – could await.
That’s a good draw in my opinion and Stosur's form is also returning at the right time – she will play in the final in Strasbourg on Saturday after an impressive week in which she's yet to lose a set. That includes a win over Carla Suarez Navarro, another who I also considered for the shortlist, and follows on from an impressive display against a fully-fit Halep in Madrid where she lost out 6-4 in the deciding set.
All in all, 40/1 looks more than fair.
On to the second quarter where Muguruza sits and I like the chances of another Aussie, 24th seed Daria Gavrilova.
She’s also in the aforementioned Strasbourg final but I’m not simply picking players who have won a few matches in recent days.
Before Strasbourg, Dasha made the last eight in Rome where she defeated Kuznetova before losing to Bertens.
Other notable scalps in the past 12 months include Kerber, Madison Keys and Suarez Navarro.
She’s already gone well at a Grand Slam this year, reaching the last 16 Down Under and there’s certainly potential for her to go deep again. Gavrilova is 100/1 for the title but 20/1 about her winning a quarter which also includes Mladenovic, Dominika Cibulkova and Venus Williams is perhaps the way to go.
The two favourites, Svitolina and Halep, occupy the third quarter where a largely unknown qualifier may just be worth some small change.
Czech teenager Marketa Vondrousova has just stormed through qualifying, losing just seven games in three matches, and she looks on the fast track to the top.
She’s now won a remarkable 50 matches so far in 2017 and while the majority of those have come on the ITF Pro Circuit, she’s shown an ability to compete with some established WTA stars.
For example, she beat Barbora Strycova en route to a maiden WTA title in Biel, again as a qualifier.
Now on an eight-match winning run, she comes in brimming with confidence.
“I think I'm playing great,” she said after reaching the main draw.
“In a key situation, I'm a bit confident and I'm serving well, so I think it's good for me. I just grew up on clay, so I'm used to it.”
Also left-handed – often an advantage – Vondrousova is on offer at 125/1. The likelihood is this is just a tad early for her but given the wide-open nature of the draw I can’t resist a bet to minimum stakes.
I’m also going to have a punt in the fourth quarter which looks the weakest of the four.
Pliskova and Briton Johanna Konta are the top seeds in this section but neither has been impressing on the clay. They have a chance here, such is the lack of quality around them, but I also feel they can be taken on.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is one many will turn to but at a considerably bigger price, qualifier Alison van Uytvanck is my long-shot selection.
The Belgian didn’t lose a set in her three qualifiers and is clearly relishing her return to the venue where she made the quarter-finals on her previous visit in 2015.
She was forced to miss the event 12 months ago due to injury but is sure to take confidence from her previous experience here.
100/1 to win what is a soft quarter is just too big so I’ll take a small slice of the price.
Posted at 1200 BST on 27/05/17.