Free tennis tips: Rafael Nadal v Daniil Medvedev, Australian open final previews & best bets
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open final
1pt Daniil Medvedev to beat Rafael Nadal 3-1 at 33/10 (Unibet)
1.5pts Daniil Medvedev over 13.5 aces at 4/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Each player over 5 double faults at 15/4 (William Hill)
Rafael Nadal v Daniil Medvedev (0830 GMT, Sunday)
The ‘Chase for 21’ continues in Sunday’s Australian Open final with Rafael Nadal this time the man seeking to set a new record for Grand Slam singles titles.
Roger Federer took his shot at 21 at Wimbledon 2019, missing by a single point, before Novak Djokovic tried and failed at last year’s US Open.
Nadal enters this match with a 3-1 lead in the head-to-head over Daniil Medvedev (2-0 on outdoor hard) but he’ll start as a firm outsider – a measure of the Russian’s improvement since his five-set loss to the Spaniard in the 2019 US Open final.
Nadal has surely exceeded even his own expectations on his latest trip to Australia.
Upon arrival, he hadn’t played competitive tennis since early August due to a foot injury – one he has admitted in Melbourne saw him consider retirement.
But he swept to a warm-up title prior to this current run, one which has seen his serve broken only five times in six matches.
He was certainly way too good for Matteo Berrettini in the semi-finals when he preyed on the Italian’s backhand side.
However, the left-hander will certainly need a new gameplan for this contest.
Medvedev’s backhand is a strength and so Nadal’s crosscourt forehand – another potent weapon – will need to be used wisely and not consistently.
Expect the off-forehand to be used whenever possible – a shot that will need to fire for Nadal to succeed.
Stand by pre-tournament selection
Medvedev’s superb defensive play has again been on show in recent matches and it will be difficult even for a player with weapons like Nadal to hit through the Russian.
Our pre-tournament title pick has not been at his brilliant best at this tournament - he’s dropped at least one set in four of the six rounds – but he’s shown that vital ability to raise his level at key moments and dig in when necessary to acquire the desired results.
I’m sticking with Medvedev to come through, although going in again at 1/2 doesn’t make great sense if you are already on at 7/4.
While certainly impressed with the level of play Nadal has been able to bring after such a long time out, I think his comeback is taking another significant step up here and it may be a little too early for him against a player over Medvedev’s class.
Rather than back Medvedev in the win market, taking 3-1 in the set-betting market is perhaps of more interest at this stage.
As already pointed out, the second seed hasn’t been rolling through opponents and Nadal’s form is strong.
Medvedev does seem likely to get more joy out of Nadal’s serve than most, while that defensive side of the game should extend the rallies and I can see him winning more of the longer ones, such is his ability these days.
However, Nadal won’t wilt and so THE 3-1 SCORELINE at 33/10 looks worth a try.
Russian to serve it up to Nadal
There are also some interesting options in the serve markets.
OVER 13.5 MEDVEDEV ACES (4/5, bet365) on what is a fairly fast court appeals.
He’s landed this in two of the four previous meetings serving 21 in three sets during their 2019 ATP Finals clash, and hit 13 in the most recent clash (again a three-set affair).
With this match expected to go beyond three sets - not just by me but the layers too - there should be chances for the Russian to gain plenty of free points on his own delivery.
Also, a punt on the 15/4 being offered by William Hill about EACH PLAYER SERVING OVER FIVE DOUBLE FAULTS is tempting.
While that bet is yet to land in the head-to-head, both men have struggled (relatively) on this front during the tournament so far.
Each has hit six or more in three of their six matches so far and, again, we could be going long here, increasing the chance of double faults.
Published at 0910 GMT on 29/01/22
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.