ATP Tour tennis tips: Great Ocean Road Open & Murray River Open

Tennis betting tips: Great Ocean Road Open & Murray River Open

0.5pt e.w. Jordan Thompson in Great Ocean Road Open at 50/1

0.5pt e.w. Tennys Sandgren in Great Ocean Road Open at 66/1

0.5pt e.w. Dan Evans in Murray River Open at 33/1

1pt win Grigor Dimitrov in Murray River Open at 15/2

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Great Ocean Road Open

• Melbourne, Australia (outdoor hard)

It’s been a long road but tennis is about to be played in Australia – and there will be plenty of fans in to watch it too.

What the quality will be like remains to be seen though.

Most players in this week’s fields will be playing their first matches of the season – and the lead into the 2021 campaign has been somewhat different to the norm.

Every player had to board a chartered flight to get to Australia and upon arrival they had to immediately quarantine in a hotel. Most were still able to practise and train in a gym, being allowed out of their room for five hours a day. Still, that’s hardly the normal preparation they’d have.

An unlucky number, whose flights contained someone who subsequently tested positive for COVID-19, had to endure the ‘hard’ quarantine of 14 days inside their hotel room. They got to hit a ball against their mattress and train on a fitness bike but that was about it.

This week’s tournaments were put back 24 hours to help this group but clearly, even after a few days back outside, they will be disadvantaged.

Dominic Thiem described the split between the two groups as a “complete inequality of opportunity”, while Andy Murray’s strength and conditioning coach, Matt Little, said the strict quarantine situation was a “disaster” for those involved.

He told Metro: “They’ll get most things from a tennis and tactical perspective back quickly but it’s the body’s exposure to this explosive work after a two-week period of enforced rest that’s actually really quite dangerous for them.”

Injuries can be expected this week – and that will be a real concern for players given the lucrative Australian Open starts on February 8.

The lead-in situation clearly has to be taken into account by punters, who will be punching in the dark to some extent.

This particular tournament is technically the replacement for the event which was scheduled to take place in Adelaide. It has the higher prize fund of the two mentioned in this preview but actually has what looks a slightly weaker field.

The marquee matches will be played on the Margaret Court Arena with the rest staged on the outside courts at Melbourne Park, the long-time venue of the Australian Open. So at least there is some ‘course form’ to go on, although remember the Australian Open did change its hardcourts to a Greenset surface for its 2020 edition.

That should be taken into account, as should players’ ability to start fast after a lengthy break – most haven’t played since October/November, although a handful did play in the opening ATP events of the year in Antalya and Delray Beach prior to flying Down Under.

Clearly there is potential for upset this week and so I’m not really interested in backing those towards the head of the market.

A recent case can be made for favourite Jannik Sinner but the bookies are very wary of this rising star these days, hence his price of just 4/1. I like the fact that Sinner has been practising for much of the past fortnight with Rafael Nadal. That experience will benefit him hugely and he looks to have a decent couple of matches to get him up and running in Melbourne.

In the top half of the draw, Hubert Hurkacz will also have his backers at 6/1. The Pole was the winner of that tournament in Delray Beach and so already has his 2021 campaign very much up and running.

Alexander Bublik is a potential big hurdle for Hurkacz to overcome – the pair could meet in the quarter-finals. The Kazakh made the final in Antalya to back up a strong autumn campaign. Those matches were largely indoors but the way he played outside in Turkey should have given him plenty of confidence for the Aussie swing.

He’s worth considering at 33/1 but in this half of the draw I’m going to take a punt on JORDAN THOMPSON at 50s.

As an Australian, Thompson hasn’t been subject to the same quarantine restrictions as his peers. He did have to isolate in a hotel when he did move around the country but that was much longer ago.

He spent time training with Nick Kyrgios in Canberra and has spoken positively about how that went. That extra freedom will have given him a much more relaxed approach over recent weeks and that may just reap rewards here.

The 11th seed’s draw looks a decent one. Fifth seed Nikoloz Basilashvili is in his section but the Georgian endured a miserable 2020 and would have slipped well down the rankings had the protection system not been introduced.

Top seed David Goffin could follow in the last eight but the Belgian has been below his best level for some time now and doesn’t have a particularly strong record in Australia – he’s made only one quarter-final at the Australian Open with five of his seven appearances resulting in first-week defeats.

It’s a long shot but in an odd week, Thompson has potential.

The bottom half also looks open if you are prepared to take on Sinner, which I am given the price. Karen Khachanov is actually the player seeded to make the final but, like Goffin, it’s been some time since we saw the best of the Russian.

Perhaps Miomir Kecmanovic can pull things together at 25/1. I put him up in my first preview of the year where I showed he has often started a season strongly, However, he disappointed in Antalya, losing from a set up in pretty spectacular fashion.

The name I like the look of given his record during the swing Down Under is TENNYS SANDGREN.

He made the quarter-finals of the Australian Open on these Greenset courts last year when he really should have beaten Roger Federer but blew seven match points. That backed up another last-eight appearance in 2018, while in 2019 he won the Auckland title in the week before the Australian Open.

The outspoken American also appears to have a point to prove. He was the man who tested positive following his flight to Melbourne, although the test result was later attributed to the fact he had contracted COVID-19 a couple of months before.

His social media comments suggest he’s not keen on being made a scapegoat and so I expect he’ll be determined to go well this week.

The big problem, of course, is that he’s been one of the hard quarantiners and I’ve already written about the problems that brings. Perhaps that should rule him out of my staking plan but in an open part of the draw, I can’t resist a few beans at 66/1.

Click here for Andy Schooler’s preview of the ATP Cup, also taking place this week.

Murray River Open

• Melbourne, Australia (outdoor hard)

With the top eight seeds all coming from the world’s top 33, this looks the stronger of the two fields this week.

It certainly has appeal in terms of star names with the top seed being three-time Grand Slam champion Stan Wawrinka.

Grigor Dimitrov is also included, as is former US Open champion Marin Cilic, while the antics of home hope Nick Kyrgios – be they good or bad - will always draw interest.

Wawrinka is tempting at 10/1. He has often started a season well, winning the Australian Open tune-up in India on four occasions, while his record here in Melbourne is strong.

As well as his 2014 title triumph, he’s also made two semi-finals and last year reached the quarter-finals on the newly-installed Greenset courts. He has a decent-looking draw from which he may be able to ease himself into the tournament.

Richard Gasquet and Taylor Fritz are his scheduled seeded foes before the semis and neither will overly concern the powerful ball-striker.

Kyrgios could follow and I can easily make a case for the firebrand Aussie, too. The Australian has not had the same amount of disruption in terms of quarantine and, according to practice partner Jordan Thompson, has been playing well in recent weeks.

He sounds happy in himself – and that’s when he always plays his best. That’s often been the case when he’s on home soil with Kyrgios previously a winner in Brisbane, while he’s also been the quarter-finals of the Australian Open.

Yet we all know there are problems involved with backing Kyrgios. Let’s just say he’s prone to the odd meltdown.

The other issue in backing him this week is you do so knowing he hasn’t hit a competitive ball in 11 months. Yes, many of his rivals have also spent a long time off the court but not that long.

Given he’s only a 6/1 shot, Kyrgios is too short for me.

A 33/1 shot in his quarter of the draw may offer better value, namely DAN EVANS.

The Briton made his first ATP Tour final in the week before the 2017 Australian Open (in Sydney) before going onto reach the last 16 in Melbourne, while he also played well in last season’s opening event of the year, the ATP Cup, beating two top-20 players in Alex de Minaur and David Goffin.

After ending his 2020 season with semi-final appearances in Antwerp and Vienna, he was playing some pretty competitive tennis just before Christmas at the Battle of the Brits event, winning all bar one of his matches comfortably, the loss coming in tight fashion against Andy Murray.

Training with the likes of Murray and Cameron Norrie that week will have undoubtedly helped Evans’ preparation for the new season and given his record for playing well at this time of the year in this part of the world, Evans looks worth backing to small stakes at 33/1.

In the bottom half of the draw, GRIGOR DIMITROV is another who likes it Down Under. The Bulgarian, seeded second this week, has twice made the final in Brisbane on his seasonal debut, winning that title in 2017. He has also been a finalist in Sydney the week before an Australian Open.

In Melbourne, he’s also performed well, coming so close to beating Rafael Nadal in the 2017 semis. Dimitrov has also made two other quarter-finals at Melbourne Park. Like Evans, he showed some good form towards the end of last term and there looks a decent chance he can start 2021 well.

Again, just a small play is advised given this week’s circumstances but Dimitrov makes the coupon at 15/2.

Published at 1548 GMT on 31/01/21