Andy Schooler landed outright winners at 5/2 and 4/1 last week – here’s his look at this week’s ATP Tour events in Belgrade and Parma.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Aljaz Bedene in Emilia-Romagna Open at 16/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/2 1,2)
1pt e.w. Jan-Lennard Struff in Emilia-Romagna Open at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/2 1,2)
0.5pt e.w. Arthur Rinderknech in Belgrade Open at 50/1 (Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes 1/3 1,2)
Belgrade Open
- Belgrade, Serbia (outdoor clay)
Novak Djokovic makes a rare appearance in a week before a Grand Slam in Belgrade this week.
Emotion has doubtless played part in his decision to change up his schedule with this being his homeland.
Whether it backfires in terms of the forthcoming French Open remains to be seen but what we do know is that when the world number one does play the week before a Slam, he usually goes full pelt – not something which can be said of every player.
He played and won Eastbourne when searching for form in 2017, while last year he was champion in Cincinnati the week before the US Open, although on that occasion it wasn’t really a case of opting to play – it was more forced upon him given it was the first week of the post-lockdown season.
He’ll arguably have added motivation to win here given last month’s visit to the same venue (for the Serbia Open) ended in semi-final defeat to Aslan Karatsev.
Djokovic clearly wasn’t happy with his form following that loss, which came quick on the heels of defeat to Dan Evans in Monte Carlo, but a bit of a break seemed to work well as he looked much better in Rome where he won a high-quality contest with Stefanos Tsitsipas, battled to victory over Lorenzo Sonego and then pushed Rafael Nadal to a deciding set in the final.
In a field which contains just one other top-30 player – Gael Monfils, who hasn’t played much of late and has barely won a match in a year – it’s no surprise to see him going off a red-hot favourite at around 1/3.
With a first-round bye, he’ll only need to win four matches and probably will.
However, the usual pre-Slam warning is required – any slight niggle can bring a withdrawal in a week such as this.
It’s therefore fair to say I’ve no interest in backing Djokovic at such a price.
Nikoloz Basilashvili is arguably the biggest threat to the favourite. The pair could meet in the semis where the Georgian’s hitting would have the potential to take time away from Djokovic.
However, the most sensible plan betting plan appears to be to try to find the finalist from the other half.
It’s easy to take Monfils on, indeed the layers already have with both Federico Delbonis and Filip Krajinovic shorter prices than the world number 14.
Krajinovic, another home hope, made the quarter-finals here last month before losing to eventual champion Matteo Berrettini.
He has a good draw in a weak-looking third quarter where the man seeded to reach the last four is Adrian Mannarino, who is 0-5 on European clay this season.
Delbonis is the form man though.
Since making the quarter-finals here last month, the Argentine has beaten Pablo Carreno Busta, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Frances Tiafoe, David Goffin and Felix Auger-Aliassime during strong runs at the Masters events in Madrid (L16) and Rome (QF).
He’s also previously shown his keenness to go deep in the week before a Slam having reached the Nice final days before Roland Garros in 2014.
The problem here is the fact that firms are offering only a third of the odds for a place in their each-way terms given Djokovic’s position as a hot favourite.
Any returns for Delbonis reaching the final would therefore be pretty slim.
Instead it might be worth taking a punt on 50/1 shot ARTHUR RINDERKNECH.
The Frenchman made the most of his lucky-loser spot in Lyon’s main draw last week, going on to beat Jannik Sinner and reach the quarter-finals where he suffered a narrow loss to the in-form Cameron Norrie.
It’s easy to suggest that was simply a one-off but there have been signs in recent times to suggest the 25-year-old’s ability to compete at this level.
He made the last eight in Marseille earlier this season, where admittedly his big serve was aided by slick conditions.
However, there have also been some decent results since moving onto the clay.
Rinderknech reached the last 16 here as a qualifier last month, losing only in a third set to Miomir Kecmanovic. He then made the semis of a Challenger in Ostrava before his run in Lyon.
He’ll doubtless be a player looking to continue his strong momentum this week with little concern for what lies ahead.
Perhaps he could be the man to unseat Delbonis should they meet in the quarter-finals – Delbonis was undone by Reilly Opelka’s huge serve in Rome recently.
It’s a long shot, granted, but in a field that’s far from great and in a week when not everyone will be busting a gut to go all the way, 50/1 looks worth some small change.
Emilia-Romagna Open
- Parma, Italy (outdoor clay)
The postponement of Roland Garros by a week has led to this event being added to the ATP Tour schedule with Parma a new stop-off for most.
The President Tennis Club – not the venue used by the WTA’s Emilia-Romagna Open this past week – has actually staged second-tier Challenger tournaments in the past two years.
The 2020 version was won by Frances Tiafoe and the American is in the field this week.
However, his form hasn’t been great on the clay, while he was last seen withdrawing from Rome due to injury.
He’s in the same half of the draw as Albert Ramos-Vinolas, a friend of this column after winning in Estoril earlier this month.
The Spaniard is the man with all the form but he’s also withdrawn from both Rome and Lyon in the past two weeks citing a leg injury which troubled him in Portugal.
He’ll have his backers at 6/1 and if fit could well win, but that’s not a price I’m prepared to take risks with especially with the French Open now just a week away. Remember, he was a top price of 20s in Estoril.
I prefer to take a chance on ALJAZ BEDENE, who has shown glimpses of what he’s capable of on clay.
This is his favourite surface and the one-time Briton has made a final in the run-up to Roland Garros in the past – Budapest in 2017.
He’s been to quarter-finals in Cagliari and Lyon in recent weeks and also produced a strong performance in Belgrade where he only lost 7-6 in the third to Karatsev, who is enjoying quite some season.
The Slovenian’s best results have always come when he’s got his first serve working well and it was noteworthy that last week in Lyon he was above 80 per cent for first-serve points won in all three matches.
At 16/1, he looks a decent each-way prospect this week.
Admittedly the top half seems more likely to produce the winner.
Top seed Lorenzo Sonego was last seen reaching the semis of the Masters 1000 tournament in Rome. He’s subsequently chalked up as the 3/1 favourite here.
But also in the first quarter is his fellow Italian Lorenzo Musetti, who was a set up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Lyon semi-finals on Saturday before losing in three.
That’s two of the top three in the betting in the same quarter. Only one can make the semis so this looks a tricky call.
It might be worth looking at JAN-LENNARD STRUFF in the weaker second quarter.
The German made a significant breakthrough in Munich earlier this month, reaching his first ATP Tour final following a string of last-four losses.
He went on to fully test Andrey Rublev in Rome, losing only 6-4 in the decider.
His heavy, flat hitting make him a dangerous opponent in slow conditions and this week’s weather forecast has plenty of rain in it.
With a first-round bye and a decent-looking draw – Tommy Paul is the other seed in this quarter – Struff looks to have a nice path to the last four so it could be worth getting him on the coupon at 12/1.
Published at 1830 BST on 22/05/21
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