Our tennis man, Andy Schooler, previews the Australian Open men’s singles. Is Novak Djokovic a sure thing for a 10th title in Melbourne?
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open
1pt e.w. Stefanos Tsitsipas for the title at 16/1 (BoyleSports, Unibet 1/2, 1-2)
2pts Taylor Fritz to win the fourth quarter at 11/4 (Betfred)
0.5pt Holger Rune to win the third quarter at 9/1 (BoyleSports)
Australian Open
- Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia (outdoor hard)
Man deported from the country returns 12 months on and becomes all-conquering hero (amid a few boos).
That’s the script. Written by Netflix, maybe?
According the bookies, it’s now more likely to happen than not – Novak Djokovic is odds-on across the board to win a record-extending 10th Australian Open title over the next fortnight.
The man who opted not to be vaccinated against Covid is back in Melbourne, a place he loves having won here on eight of his last 11 visits.
That figure of 11 doesn’t include last year’s trip which saw him detained at the airport, banged up in immigration accommodation, practise for a couple of days before being told to go home.
I’d suggest that experience will give Djokovic added motivation which, given he’s already a mental giant, isn’t good news for his rivals.
The question is whether physically he’s in the right place for what is always a gruelling challenge given the temperatures in Victoria at this time of year.
Djokovic has been a real money-earner for his backers here in the past but anyone ready to get with him again should be very aware that he’s coming in nursing a hamstring issue.
That first emerged during his semi-final win over Daniil Medvedev in Adelaide last week and was clearly still a problem for him in training in Melbourne when he stopped a practice session with Medvedev.
While Djokovic will doubtless have been taking precautions with such a big event looming, it’s hardly confidence-filling news.
It should also be remembered that Djokovic came within a point of losing to Sebastian Korda in the Adelaide final and while he finished 2022 with victory at the ATP Finals, don’t forget that Holger Rune beat him in the Paris Masters final a couple of weeks prior. The Dane is in Djokovic’s quarter here.
It seems almost wrong to question Djokovic much (for the record, I still believe he’s the best player in the world) but I also have slight concerns about the fact he’s not played best-of-five matches in these sort of sweltering conditions for a long time – remember he didn’t compete at last year’s US Open either.
This is considerably different to scooping up titles indoors in Europe in the autumn.
Of course, I won’t really be surprised if Djokovic emerges as champion again but can I back him as an odds-on shot? No.
If not Djokovic, then who?
So, what are the alternatives?
Carlos Alcaraz won the most recent Grand Slam, September’s US Open, but he’s not here due to injury – and could lose his world number one spot as a result.
Top seed and defending champion Rafael Nadal gets another shot at glory and will be a tempting price for some – he’s as big as 20/1.
However, injuries hit hard after a strong start to 2022 and Nadal didn’t play much tennis at all in the second half of the year.
At the start of this new campaign he played and lost twice (to Cam Norrie and Alex de Minaur) at the United Cup team event and while he looked fitter and didn’t play badly, you got the impression he needs more matches under his belt.
The seeding system and nature of the Slams theoretically gives him that chance – Nadal would love a few simple matches in the opening week to knock his game into shape ahead of bigger tasks.
But Thursday’s draw threw up a problem.
Nadal was handed one of the toughest first-round tasks, drawing Briton Jack Draper, who is one of the rising stars of the tour and looks to be going places. Readers of my season preview will know how keen I am on the 21-year-old.
Clearly Nadal will still start favourite for that match and if he does come through it then calmer waters lie ahead for a couple of rounds before potential tests against Hubert Hurkacz and Medvedev before the semis.
Still, backing Nadal was risky prior to the draw; now I simply can’t bring myself to get with him.
Neither am I keen on Medvedev, the second favourite with the bookies.
He’s been to the last two finals in Melbourne but it’s hard to argue he hasn’t gone downhill since squandering a two-set lead in last year’s title match.
Just two minor titles have been won since and his record at the Slams and Masters 1000 tournaments is underwhelming – away from Melbourne, Medvedev had two last-16 exits in the former and just one semi-final in the latter.
Djokovic beat him comfortably at the season-opening event in Adelaide and even if the Serb falls before their slated quarter-final clash, I’m not convinced Medvedev is going all the way here.
I’ll put a line through Nick Kyrgios too.
He appeared to finally manage a period of consistency during 2022, reaching his first Grand Slam final at Wimbledon, winning the 500 title in Washington before suffering a narrow loss in the US Open quarter-finals.
But while you could argue the mental side of Kyrgios’ game is in better shape (and frankly I feel he could still combust at any given moment), physical issues remain.
The Australian pulled out of both of his scheduled warm-up events so has played just twice since that US Open loss in early September – and, yes, you guessed it, those two matches were followed by an injury withdrawal in Tokyo.
Any way, enough negativity.
Let’s look at those who do make some appeal and I’ll start with STEFANOS TSITSIPAS.
The Greek has long enjoyed his trips Down Under, famously beating Roger Federer in what proved to be a real breakthrough win in 2019.
He went onto make the semis that year and has since played in two more, making the last four in both 2021 and 2022.
And it’s not as if the semis are proving a huge barrier to overcome – Tsitsipas has played in a Grand Slam final, losing from two sets up to Djokovic in the 2021 decider at Roland Garros.
OK, he still needs to make clear the biggest hurdle but the 24-year-old does keep putting himself in good positions – he made three Masters finals last season, winning one and finishing runner-up on the hardcourts of Cincinnati.
It plays fairly quick there and will do so here too with the Greenset surface, coupled with light Dunlop balls, having sped things up since it was laid ahead of the 2020 tournament.
Tsitsipas certainly started the year well on the Greenset, going 4-0 at the United Cup as he went close to dragging the Greece team to the final, beating Matteo Berrettini and Borna Coric in the process.
The draw looks fairly decent with Tsitsipas in the second quarter.
Djokovic is in the other half, while there’s no Nadal or Medvedev in this section.
Jannik Sinner and Felix Auger-Aliassime both are but Tsitsipas leads those two 4-1 and 5-3 respectively on the head-to-head.
Cam Norrie (1-1) is another who could go well in this part of the draw and I could understand people wanting to back the Briton at 66s given the way he’s started 2023 – he went 3-0 at the United Cup before surging into the latter stages in Auckland.
However, preference is for the man with greater experience at the business end of the major events and I’ll back Tsitsipas at 16/1.
Taylor made for this test
In the other half, TAYLOR FRITZ is another who has started the season well and while placing too much emphasis on that would be dangerous – after all this event comes just three weeks into the season – there’s no doubt the American will be happy with how he’s picked up where he left off in 2022.
In many ways, last year was a breakthrough season for Fritz, with a first Masters 1000 title (on hardcourts in Indian Wells) followed by qualification for the ATP Finals.
As last man in, it wouldn’t have been hard to find plenty who expected him to struggle but in elite company he reached the semi-finals and only lost in two tie-breaks to eventual champion Djokovic.
The serve has been key to his success and it was notable that he went unbroken in four of his five matches at the recent United Cup, those four all being won; three were against top-20 players.
But it was arguably his return stats which helped Fritz climb into the top 10 last season – few at the start of the season would have expected him to be in the top 20 for percentage of return games won. In the end, he finished 18th, up from 37th in previous year. In 2022 he broke in once every four games, as opposed to one in every five in 2021.
His game should be well suited to the conditions and while a 9-6 record in Melbourne is hardly pulling up trees, it’s worth noting that his last four losses have come at the hands of messrs Tsitsipas (in five sets last year), Djokovic (eventual champion in 2021), Dominic Thiem (runner-up in 2020) and Roger Federer.
A top-eight seeding this year means an easier draw with Miomir Kecmanovic and a rusty Alex Zverev due to be faced before a quarter-final with Casper Ruud or Matteo Berrettini, a player he beat at the United Cup.
Those who followed my ante-post advice will already have Fritz onside at 50/1. He’s into a best price of 20/1 now and having landed in Djokovic’s half it’s not looking the bet it was last month.
So, it’s to the quarter betting I’m turning here with Fritz looking backable to win the fourth quarter.
Finally, I’ll have a small play on HOLGER RUNE to win the Djokovic quarter at 9/1.
The Dane finished 2022 on fire, claiming a surprise victory at the Paris Masters, a run which included five wins over top-10 players – the first time that had been achieved at a regular ATP Tour event.
He also won in Stockholm and finished runner-up in both Basel and Sofia back in the autumn.
Replicating that indoor success outside two months later is obviously not an easy task and Rune did lose his opening match of the year in Adelaide last week.
Yet his team have been bullish about his practice sessions this week – he notably headed to Melbourne rather than risk the rain-hit event in Auckland – and it would be no surprise to see him click back into the groove.
With Kyrgios, Andrey Rublev and Djokovic all potentially in his path to the semis, he’ll need to find that A-game but what we saw at the end of the season was a player strong in both defence and attack and one who holds little fear.
Even if Djokovic’s fitness holds up, Rune will be able to draw on the experience of toppling the Serb in their Paris final in November and so I’m tempted enough to have a dabble.
Click the image for women's outright preview
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- 2023 tips: Women's Grand Slams
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Posted at 1050 GMT on 13/01/23
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