Andy Schooler successfully tipped up Jannik Sinner to win the 2024 Australian Open at 13/2. Find out who he’s backing for victory in this year’s tournament…
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open
1pt e.w. Daniil Medvedev at 18/1 (Unibet, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet)
1pt Tommy Paul to win the fourth quarter at 10/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Jiri Lehecka to win the third quarter at 25/1 (General)
Australian Open – Men’s Singles
- Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia (outdoor hard)
This time last year, I remember writing this preview thinking Jannik Sinner was very much overpriced.
He’d enjoyed an excellent second half of 2023, regularly beating the bets players in the game, and he subsequently delivered, winning at decent odds of 13/2.
In the 12 months since, he’s clearly become the world’s best player, adding the US Open to his Grand Slam collection and he’ll go off no bigger than 11/8 to retain his title.
The Italian may well win again but that’s not a price for me.
He’s yet to play this season and I’ve always been wary of upsets at this opening Grand Slam given its early position in the calendar – it begins in just the third week of the campaign.
However, perhaps most significant is the fact his drugs case is about to be reopened, something which will be a constant theme for the media throughout this tournament, with certain individuals – I’m definitely talking about you, Nick Kyrgios – only too happy to stir the pot.
Sinner escaped a ban for failing two tests last March but the World Anti-Doping Authority has appealed that decision and the Court of Arbitration for Sport is expected to hear the case next month.
Some will feel this matters little but I’d suggest it could well be weighing heavily on his mind and it certainly feels a far-from-ideal scenario for Sinner, going into one of the biggest tournaments of the year.
Next in the betting is Carlos Alcaraz, the reigning French Open and Wimbledon champion who will be looking to become the youngest man ever to complete the career Grand Slam over the next fortnight.
Again, we all know Alcaraz has the ability to do that but I find his record in Australia a little off-putting.
He’s pretty inexperienced Down Under, playing only 13 matches and losing four of those. His best result at the Australian Open was last year’s quarter-final run which ended at the hands of Alex Zverev.
Given this, it was a little surprising that Alcaraz didn’t opt to play in any of the warm-up events.
Thursday’s draw saw him placed in the same quarter as 10-time champion Novak Djokovic, too, and so I’m less than enthused by odds of 4/1.
Of course, Djokovic will certainly have his backers at 11/2 given his record-breaking feats here – his 10 victories have come in his last 16 visits, quite a strike-rate.
But of late the former world number one has rarely shown the sort of tennis which led to him dominating this event for so many years.
Yes, the Serb did achieve his biggest goal in 2024, winning Olympic gold.
But that was Djokovic’s only title last season. Take it away and frankly it was a disappointing campaign.
A kind draw helped Djokovic reach the Wimbledon final but once there he was crushed by Alcaraz. A similar thing happened here 12 months ago where he was dominated by Sinner in their semi-final.
Then there were the shock defeats to the likes of Luca Nardi, Alejandro Tabilo, Tomas Machac and Alexei Popyrin. This season has also begun poorly with a loss to Reilly Opelka in Brisbane.
Those sort of results just didn’t happen when he was at his peak.
OK, maybe we’ll see Djokovic reproduce that laser focus which helped him claim the gold medal in Paris – he should certainly feel at home here given the success he’s enjoyed at Melbourne Park – but I don’t think it’s particularly likely.
A tough draw adds to his challenge – to get to that potential quarter-final with Alcaraz, Djokovic may well have to win a rematch with Machac and beat Grigor Dimitrov, another player with a strong record Down Under.
A last-four meeting with Zverev and a final clash with Sinner are also slated if the seedings play out.
So, if I’m not keen on the market leaders, who is the bet in Melbourne in 2025?
Well, I’m drawn to odds of 18/1 about DANIIL MEDVEDEV.
Yes, I know the Russian failed to win a title in 2024 and he admits himself that he fell off the pace being set by Sinner and Alcaraz, going 1-8 against the pair.
However, the off-season always brings something of a reset and now Medvedev returns to a (relatively) happy hunting ground – he’s made the final in three of the last four years.
I use the word relatively for good reason as Medvedev lost on all three occasions and in the last two, he’s been beaten from two sets up – first against Rafael Nadal in 2022 and then, last year, by Sinner.
The 2021 US Open champion could be forgiven for thinking he’s destined never to win this title but he certainly wasn’t giving off that impression on media day during which he cut a very positive figure.
Rather cryptically, he announced: “I think we're going to see a lot of interesting things from me, and I'm looking forward to it.”
Maybe we’ll see a bit of a change on serve – his numbers on that shot went down last season. If he can find solutions there, then there’s no reason he can’t close the gap on his rivals.
Medvedev recently became a father to a second child and declared: “I feel in a great place. Very happy.”
Not everyone believes in the ‘nappy factor’ but that mental positivity regarding his family situation may well prove a driving force.
He also played down a relatively late arrival in Australia, having opted not to play any warm-up events.
Having pointed out that was also the case before last season’s final run, he added: “I feel great (about that) because it gives me extra time to practise.”
Conditions here suit the Medvedev game – Melbourne Park has tended to play faster than average since GreenSet courts were laid in 2020 – and that’s reflected in his results.
Temperatures aren’t forecast to go too crazy either, which will help.
The draw could have been a lot harsher on Medvedev, who will open against wild card Kasidit Samrej.
Rising star Learner Tien is potentially awkward in round two and others will point out the threat of Popyrin and Andrey Rublev in the following rounds.
However, Medvedev Is 3-1 up on Popyrin (2-0 on outdoor hard) and leads compatriot Rublev 7-2, the last three all in straight sets.
Taylor Fritz looks the biggest threat in the quarter – the pair could meet in the last eight – but against Medvedev is up in the head-to-head on outdoor hardcourts (1-0).
The American has started the season well, helping the USA win the United Cup (a 3/1 winner for this column), and he looks like he’s ready to continue the momentum gained in the second half of 2024 when he reached the US Open final.
I wouldn’t put people off backing Fritz but I’ve already highlighted his chances in my ante-post Grand Slam preview, which was published last month, and certainly if you are already on at 40/1, there seems little point in getting involved again now at 30s.
For me, given his record in Melbourne, Medvedev looks to offer some each-way value at 18/1 in places, with 14s and upwards perfectly fair.
Another option for those who need it is to split stakes between the win and 'reach the final' markets, with 8/1 generally available about the latter – if betting with firms offering 14/1, this is the way to go.
Quarter masters hard to find
The quarter markets often throw up something of interest at the Slams, with most firms pricing them up.
I must admit that nothing immediately stood out but, given how I’ve downplayed the chances of Djokovic and Alcaraz, I can’t resist a small play on opposing them in quarter three.
I’ll do that by backing JIRI LEHECKA at 25/1.
The Czech started the season by winning the Brisbane title, albeit he was helped by a couple of injuries to his opponents.
Still, confidence should be at a real high, Lehecka having already built on a strong 2024 campaign.
He went 7-7 against top-20 players last season which helps explain how he’s seeded for this event.
One of his big breakthroughs came in Melbourne two years ago when he enjoyed a surprise run to the quarter-finals. Indeed, his best results have tended to come on hardcourts and the pace of the Melbourne Park surface should make his big forehand an even more potent weapon.
Lehecka could face Djokovic in the last 16 and would take heart from the fact he pushed the Serb to a deciding set at last year’s United Cup.
This section also contains plenty of players arriving under injury clouds – Dimitrov, Machac and Thanasi Kokkinakis with all withdrawn from matches in the first two weeks of the year – and so if there is to be an upset in this quarter then Lehecka looks well placed to provide it.
Finally, I’m ready to oppose Zverev in the bottom quarter.
He was another to pick up an injury problem at the United Cup – a bicep strain isn’t a great problem to have – and looks very short at around evens to make the semis, as he did last year.
I’m not among those who have written off Zverev’s chances of winning Slam (many have) but this doesn’t look a good time to be backing him, especially given he’s landed in a tricky section.
The mercurial Kyrgios is a potential third-round foe. Arthur Fils, Casper Ruud and Adelaide finalist Felix Auger-Aliassime are others in the section, all of whom have the potential for a deep run.
However, I’m going to take a punt on TOMMY PAUL.
He made the last four here two years ago so knows how to play Down Under and he’s just warmed up by making the semis in Adelaide.
A competitive clash with Auger-Aliassime was lost in a final set but I doubt he’ll be too disappointed at getting to Melbourne a day earlier than might have been the case.
The American should have the chance to play his way into this tournament. Tabilo is the first seed he’s due to face and while Kei Nishikori could cause problems, I’m very sceptical about his body holding up in best-of-five-set tennis these days.
Ruud could await in the last 16 – a player I considered – but it’s probably faster than ideal for the Norwegian here.
For me, Paul is the man to back if you are looking to take on Zverev.
Posted at 1530 GMT on 10/01/25
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