Australian Open day eight tips: Scott Ferguson's best bets from Melbourne
Rafael Nadal can get the better of fierce rival Nick Kyrgios in their grudge match according to Scott Ferguson, who has three selections for day eight.
Recommended bets
1pt Nadal to beat Kyrgios and both players to win a set at 11/8
Rafael Nadal vs Nick Kyrgios
Three rounds into the Australian Open and Rafael Nadal is yet to drop a set. Naturally this is a step up in competitiveness but in the last two rounds against Federico Delbonis and Pablo Carreno-Busta, he has not faced a break point. Against Carreno-Busta in particular, he gave him nothing to work with, winning 78% of points on second serve. When his serve is so finely tuned, there is precious little for anyone bar the very best to work with.
Nick Kyrgios appears to be playing with an extra responsibility this summer, leading the way in fundraising for the devastating Australian bushfires. That alone has boosted his troublesome image and perhaps is the first sign of him maturing into a less chaotic individual.
He took a longer route than today's opponent to win through the third round. He had his chances to win in straight sets but ended up going the distance againt Karen Khachanov in a four-and-a-half-hour serving fest. While it's not going to feel quite as demanding as two baseliners running flat out for that long, it obviously doesn't help the energy levels. In 28 service games, he was broken only once from four break points, spread across three games.
Holding one's nerve in tiebreakers is critical for Kyrgios in particular as his options to generate break points aren't as strong. In their last two encounters, each match has ended in two tiebreakers (out of four sets at Wimbledon, three in Acapulco), but intriguingly not in the first set, suggesting both players need a little time to get into their serving groove. A tiebreak in the first set is priced at 7/2 which is tempting, but I couldn't pull the trigger.
Kyrgios' serving is doing a wonderful job for the fundraising campaign, 75 aces at $200 each after three rounds here. Often touted as the best serve on the men's tour, he can rely on it in the big matches, and the head-to-head stands at 3-4 overall. Filter out two matches on clay and he leads 3-2. Given the scenario, I could have been swayed into backing Kyrgios if he'd done it slightly easier in the previous round. But with Nadal a little fresher and serving as well as he can, I fancy we will see a contest, but with the Spaniard triumphing in the end.
Best bet: Nadal to beat Kyrgios and both players to win a set at 11/8
Daniil Medvedev vs Stan Wawrinka
The Daniil Medvedev train rolls on with straight sets wins in his last two rounds, snuffing out opponents swiftly and not letting them back into the contest. It gets tougher now against a multiple Grand Slam title winner but one not at the top of his game.
Stan Wawrinka was gifted a win over John Isner in round three after the tall American retired with a foot injury, but against a healthy opponent he’d have been in trouble. Earlier in the week he spent two days in bed with a virus and while he might be over the worst of it, it’s still draining on the energy and stamina levels of a player who plays such a heavy game.
In their previous clashes, both in the majors, Medvedev has prevailed 3-1. Combining his continued improvement and Wawrinka’s health concerns, another straight sets win for the Russian is a distinct possibility.
Best bet: Medvedev to beat Wawrinka 3-0 at 6/4
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova v Angelique Kerber
The Russian 30th seed overcame a 0-6 record against Karolina Pliskova last round with an impressive display of power and resilience. Pliskova threatened more than once to turn the match around and to win in a pair of tiebreaks was truly gritty.
Against Angelique Kerber, the head-to-head is evenly poised at six apiece with a great chance of going into the positive. Kerber relied more on the waywardness of Camila Giorgi than her own craft. The German suffered a back and hamstring injury in Adelaide and isn’t in the shape that got her to world number one.
I fancy Pavlyuchenkova to continue on her big-hitting ways and progress through to the quarter-finals.
Best bet: Pavlyuchenkova to beat Kerber at 4/5
Preview posted at 1625 GMT on 26/01/2020
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