Australian Open first round tips: Four upsets worth backing
Our man at Melbourne Park, Tim Clement, tips up four upsets worth backing in the first round of the Australian Open.
Recommended bets:
1pt Kai Kanepi to beat Simona Halep in straight sets at 5/1
1pt Alison Van Uytvanck to beat Caroline Wozniacki at 23/5
1pt Tomas Berdych to beat Kyle Edmund 3-0 at 5/2
1pt Reilly Opelka to win the 1st set 7-6 against John Isner at 31/10
There are several big names looking susceptible in the first round of the Australian Open, with Andy Murray far from the only top player enduring struggles.
After another cruelly short off-season, several stars of the ATP and WTA tours have had to patch themselves back together prematurely to compete in the season's first Grand Slam.
The bookmakers certainly expect Murray to struggle in what could be the final match of his career, making him a 7/2 outsider against Roberto Bautista Agut.
However, there are several other players still considered strong favourites for their openers despite arriving out of shape.
Here are four upsets I fancy.
Kaia Kanepi to beat Simona Halep in straight-sets - 5/1 with Ladbrokes
Simona Halep may be the 2018 finalist and world number one, but she looks extremely vulnerable here.
Since taking extra time to recover from a back injury, the Romanian lost the only match of her abbreviated comeback in straight-sets, and was a first-round loser here in both 2016 and 2017.
She has been handed a nightmare opener in veteran Kaia Kanepi, who triumphed 6-2 6-4 in their US Open first round meeting last year.
Will there be a repeat? The odds are too generous not to back it.
Alison Van Uytvanck to beat Caroline Wozniacki - 23/5 with Unibet
The woman who beat Halep in last year’s final, Caroline Wozniacki, looks equally susceptible.
Wozniacki revealed after her WTA Finals group stage exit that she was struggling with rheumatoid arthritis, seeing her spend a prolonged period away from the game.
Her return in Auckland ended with a round-of-16 loss to 18-year-old world number 106 Bianca Andreescu, providing plenty of hope for world number 54 Alison Van Uytvanck.
Tomas Berdych to beat Kyle Edmund 3-0 - 5/2 with Sky Bet
Two players in very different places in terms of their respective comebacks, barely-fit Kyle Edmund comes up against a resurgent Tomas Berdych.
World number 14 Edmund admits that the Australian Open represents a stepping stone in his return, having slumped to a straight-sets defeat to world 163 Yasutaka Uchiyama at the Brisbane International.
Uchiyama went on to lose in the next round and fail to make it through Australian Open qualifying, so it is an unfortunate timing to be transferring British expectations on to the 24-year-old.
The unseeded Berdych, in contrast, looked in good shape in reaching the final in Doha, beating players ranked 34, 28, 55 and 20 in the world en route.
Having completed his comeback from a back problem, the powerful Swede’s weapons will expose any weakness in Edmund’s movement.
Reilly Opelka to win the 1st set 7-6 against John Isner - 31/10 with Sportingbet
If you’re struggling to sleep on Sunday night, I’d advise flicking this match on and you’ll out like a light.
I certainly won’t be rushing to Court 8 to catch this ace-fest, with two Americans, standing at 6’10” and 6’11” respectively, pressing the fast forward button towards inevitable tie-breaks.
It is 4/6 that their first set goes the distance and, in that role-of-a-dice position, Reilly Opelka presents great value at 31/10 with Sportingbet to take it in a tie-break.
He did so in their only previous meeting in 2016 at Delray Beach, while John Isner arrives undercooked after losing his only tour-level match of 2019 6-7 6-7.
Isner also struggles to deliver his best Down Under, remarkably holding a lower win percentage at the Australian Open than at the French Open.