Andy Schooler’s top pick landed on day one of the Australian and his 7/2 shot lost from match point up. Here are his selections for Monday’s action in Melbourne.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1.5pts Dominic Stricker to beat James Duckworth at 6/5 (General)
1pt Denis Shapovalov to beat Roberto Bautista Agut 3-0 at 9/4 (bet365)
1pt Caroline Garcia to beat Naomi Osaka at 7/2 (General)
James Duckworth v Dominic Stricker
With Stricker a slight underdog here, I think the market is the wrong way round.
He may not have started the season well but I’ve mentioned on these pages before about his ability to raise his game on the big stage.
Despite having never been ranked higher than 88th, Stricker has beaten the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas, Casper Ruud and Hubert Hurkacz in the past, while he’s been to the last 16 of the US Open.
Aussie Duckworth can’t match those feats. He’s just 10-34 in Grand Slam main-draw matches, with his record at his home Grand Slam particularly poor.
He’s 4-11 all-time at Melbourne Park and has won just one of his last nine at the venue – that against a lucky loser in 2021.
Stricker has weapons to hurt the home hope, notably a big first serve, and he looks worth a bet at odds-against.
Denis Shapovalov v Roberto Bautista Agut
One head-to-head record which caught the eye in the first-round match-ups was this one.
Shapovalov is up 3-0, two of those wins coming last season, and he’s won each encounter in straight sets.
Looking into the details of those matches and you find the Spaniard has really struggled to hold serve, doing so only 56% of the time. That contrasts wildly with Shapovalov’s hold rate of 85%.
Notably, RBA struggled on his own serve in his season-opener in Hong Kong where he lost to compatriot Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Shapovalov hasn’t started the season great either, it has to be said, but I think I know who will be coming into this contest in a better frame of mind.
At 9/4 for a straight-sets success, Shapovalov is worth a poke.
CLICK HERE to bet on Shapovalov v Agut with Sky Bet
Naomi Osaka v Caroline Garcia
For me, Osaka is one of those players being constantly priced up on her past achievements these days but it’s a long time since she was a genuine Grand Slam contender.
The two-time Melbourne champion is still capable of the odd top-level performance – she held match point against eventual champion Iga Swiatek at last year’s French Open – but I’ve no interest in backing the Japanese at short prices.
Yes, she did make the recent Auckland final but she also quite that match due to an abdominal strain which is hardly a good thing to happen on the eve of a major.
The reason Garcia is out at 7/2 is she’s not played since September when she ended her season due to a shoulder problem, at which point she also admitted struggling mentally with the demands of the tour.
However, she appears refreshed by the break, speaking positively about her return. "I don’t want winning a Grand Slam or returning to the top five to be my goal anymore,” she said. "I want those achievements to be the outcome - the result of being happy, working hard, and continuously improving as a player and a person."
Such a mindset could well help her overcome a player who has her own mental demons – and I doubt Osaka’s recent break-up with the father of her daughter will have helped on that front.
These two met three times in 2024 with Garcia winning twice, including on these very courts.
Despite the obvious potential for rust, I think her price is simply too big and worth backing to small stakes.
CLICK HERE to bet on Osaka v Garcia with Sky Bet
Preview posted 1004 GMT on 12/01/2025
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.