Australian Open day seven tips: Scott Ferguson's best bets from Melbourne
Roger Federer can lean on his serve en route to the second week of the Australian Open according to Scott Ferguson, who has three selections for day seven.
Recommended bets
1pt Federer -6.5 aces v Fucsovics at 10/11
1pt Federer to win & both players to win a set at 6/4
2pts Raonic -3.5 games vs Cilic at 6/4
Marton Fucsovics v Roger Federer
The conspiracy theorists will be out in force as Federer once again gets the prime evening slot. After a marathon third round win over John Millman, the Swiss maestro receives the maximum permitted time to recover for this clash with Fucsovics. Would any other player get such VIP treatment seemingly every time? Ask a few Djokovic fans on Twitter and there's only one answer: no.
Fucsovics has hit the ground running in 2020, winning seven matches already including three strong victories over highly-rated younger players at Melbourne Park. After seeing off 13th seed Denis Shapovalov in four sets in the first round, he has dispatched Jannik Sinner and Tommy Paul without dropping another set.
His compact, forceful baseline play works on all surfaces, absorbing pressure and frustrating those who want to hit winner after winner - a style not unlike the aforementioned Millman. After enduring a horror run throughout most of 2019, he is back to peak fitness and has matched his best-ever Grand Slam result, reaching the fourth round here as he did in 2018.
There's little more to say about Federer. To be able to do what he does so well aged 38 is simply remarkable.
How does he respond after the Millman match? I expect him to look for cheaper points and stretch that little bit more on serve - making the aces handicap worthy of investigation. The Hungarian's serve is decent but the most aces he has served in any round so far is six; Federer is more likely to get into the teens.
Fucsovics' entourage will have taken a good look at how Millman managed to push Federer to the absolute limit, and in his current form, he might just be able to take that to claiming a set. In each their two clashes to date, he's managed to get to a tiebreak, so he's not far away.
Milos Raonic v Marin Cilic
Two years ago this would have been a top-10 clash but both big-serving giants have succumbed to injuries recently, sliding down the rankings and into the 30s.
Raonic has been in imperious form since returning from a series of injuries, most recently back and hip. Against Stefanos Tsitsipas on Friday, winner of the recent ATP Tour Finals, he did not concede a single break point in 17 service games.
On his first serve, less than 40% of returns came back, dropping a mere seven points out of 63. It wasn't purely off the serve though, with a winners:unforced errors ratio of 55:32. That form has been fairly consistent through the three rounds. In nine sets he has broken serve 12 times, converting 46% of break points, conceding just three break points of his own, and saving all of them.
A finalist in 2018, Cilic is doing his best to return to his glory days. A nagging knee injury has been his nemesis for the past year and a half but he feels confident his off-season rehabilitation work has it in the best shape for some time. As an unseeded player, he's copped the tougher draw, and had to endure five long sets against both Benoit Paire and Roberto Bautista-Agut.
Coincidentally, in the opening round, he beat Corentin Moutet, who had beaten Raonic a fortnight earlier in Doha in the Canadian's seasonal debut. Collateral form therefore gives him the edge.
The head-to-head stands at 2-1 in favour of Cilic but I'm prepared to dismiss that, as I am the tenuous Moutet form line. Their most recent match was on clay which favours Cilic and the other two were back in 2011 and 2013 - in other words, they're ancient history.
I'm not so keen on taking 4/7 about Raonic, though that does fairly reflect his chances. Instead, I'll have faith in him to win via service breaks rather than only tiebreakers and back the Canadian on the games handicap conceding 3.5.
Preview posted at 1525 GMT on 25/01/2020
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