Scott Ferguson is backing Dominic Thiem to beat Rafael Nadal in the Australian Open, where the women's quarter-finals also come under the microscope.
Recommended bets
0.5pt Thiem to beat Nadal at 9/4
2pts Halep and Muguruza to win at 1.14/1
Rafael Nadal v Dominic Thiem
It's first versus fifth in the world rankings as Rafael Nadal faces Dominic Thiem in the last of the men's quarter-finals. This will be the 14th time they have met on the tour with the Spaniard holding a commanding 9-4 lead.
The gap appears to be closing though as old father time ticks on. In their past five clashes, it's 2-2 on clay (8-4 overall) with the other match going to Nadal in a deciding tiebreak at the US Open in 2018.
Nadal was his typical self against Nick Kyrgios in the round of 16 - plenty of winners, very few errors and relentless pressure on the lanky Australian, who lacked the return game to trouble him regularly.
Thiem might not have the pin-point cannon serve but he does have the return game capable of pressuring any opponent. To match Nadal from the baseline provides opportunities in every game rather than having everything based around the serve and expecting to play regular tiebreakers.
At 9/4, this is as short as the Austrian has been in this matchup since Monte Carlo 2016, which was amid a two-year period when Nadal got no further than the quarters in any of the Grand Slams due to ongoing knee problems.
Both players are now fighting fit but it might just be time for Thiem to take the next step. There's no need to dive in deep but I'm happy to take an interest in cheering the upset.
Women's quarter-finals
With Ash Barty and Sofia Kenin locked in for the top half semi-final, it’s time for the bottom half to finish the round.
Simona Halep has been navigating her way through the draw without much stress while others have slipped up around her. She is yet to drop a set in four matches so far, but has faced only one seed. We know Halep’s game well - run, run, run, wear the opponent down then go in for the kill. Very few players are capable of hitting through her, requiring a special blend of accuracy, patience and power, a trio of attributes almost nobody can maintain evenly for a whole match.
Anett Kontaveit is breaking new ground in Melbourne, appearing in her first major quarter-final. The Estonian battled past Iga Swiatek in three long sets in the last round, falling asleep at the wheel leading 5-1 in the final set before waking up in time to close it out 7-5. She plays an aggressive game but dialled it down a little in round four, giving her opponent more chances to make the errors.
She’ll be in for a very long day if she repeats that tactic against Halep and will have to get back on the front foot.
In two previous meetings, Halep has won in straight sets, one each on clay and hardcourt. Halep has enough weapons and the consistency to see this one through and is confidently expected to do so.
Garbine Muguruza is in her best form for many moons, looking more like the two-time Grand Slam title winner than the world number 32.
She holds a 4-1 record against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and the loss was a retirement with a back injury. The Russian has been in the form of her career this week but the reason why she peaked at 13 back in 2011 and hasn’t improved on that is her lack of consistency.
She reversed a lopsided head-to-head to win against Karolina Pliskova but I can’t see her repeating that upheaval, and it should pay to double the two favourites here at bigger than even-money.
Preview posted 1550 GMT on 28/01/2019
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