Australian Open day one tips: Best bets from Melbourne
Scott Ferguson's best bets for the opening day - and night - of the Australian Open.
Recommended bets:
1pt Jan-Lennard Struff +9.5 games (v Djokovic) at 11/10
1pt Wang to defeat Riske at 7/4
2pts Cabrera to beat Li at 6/5
1pt treble Peng, Zhang & Zheng all to win at 3.23/1
Jan-Lennard Struff v Novak Djokovic
The featured night match on Rod Laver Arena pits the defending champion Novak Djokovic against 37th ranked Jan-Lennard Struff. In theory this is as tough a match as the top seed can face in the early rounds (ignoring any players returning after an enforced absence), but even the most one-eyed German tennis fan is unlikely to give Struff much of a chance of victory here.
The last time Djokovic dropped a set in the first round in Melbourne was 2006, when he was a fresh-faced 18-year-old ranked number 76. Just three players have extended him to a tiebreak in that time, but on the flipside, only three players were utterly thrashed (winning five games or less) in the process.
Both players came through the ATP Cup so they already have plenty of matches under their belt, with Djokovic putting his feet up last week to freshen up for his quest for eight Norman Brooks Challenge Cups. In a two-week tournament, there's no need to be fully wound up for the first round. It's like having a Cheltenham Gold Cup contender in peak condition in October.
Struff is a solid player with a heavy serve. It's almost certain he will eventually be broken in each set, but firepower wins a lot of free games and this gives him an advantage in a rather generous games handicap market. 9.5 headstart is a hefty buffer and at odds-against, it represents enough value to warrant a bet on a featured TV match.
Alison Riske v Yafan Wang
Alison Riske might be regarded as a dangerous floater at Wimbledon but elsewhere at the majors she has a terrible record. She has won a total of 10 main draw matches in 22 Grand Slam events not called Wimbledon, only passing the first round five times.
Part of her struggles might emanate from anxiety which she has revealed she suffers from and she returns here to a venue she has always struggled at. Her seasonal debut in Brisbane yielded wins over Karolina Muchova and Barbora Strycova, before a loss to Karolina Pliskova where she served 11 double faults.
Yafan Wang claimed some big scalps on hardcourt last season including Sofia Kenin, Donna Vekic and Elina Svitolina, players all currently ranked in the top 20. Her start to 2020 only stands at 1-2 but one of those losses was to Elena Rybakina who went onto reach the final in Shenzhen, followed by a title in Hobart.
Riske deserves to be favourite on name alone and 17 first round losses in the majors and a negative head-to-head record (1-2) are against her. The American's only victory, the first in the series was on her preferred grass in 2016 while more recently the Chinese player has beaten her twice on hardcourt.
I rate this one much closer than the odds compilers so there's value to be had in the outsider.
Ann Li v Lizette Cabrera
In terms of profile, this Court Three clash ranks about as low as it gets, but that means little when it comes to finding a punting opportunity.
American Ann Li came through qualifying to reach her first Grand Slam main draw. Her victims Ana Bogdan, Yanina Wickmayer and Mayar Sherif are all handy players but hardly ones sending shivers down the spine of opponents. The teenager with a ranking of142 also qualified in Auckland before a Roud One loss to Christina McHale so she plenty of matches under her belt already this year.
Local Lizette Cabrera finished 2019 in tremendous form, winning 14 matches on the bounce to claim two $60k ITF events, plus a runner-up trophy and a wildcard into the home Slam.
That freedom not to have to worry about qualifying enabled her to play in Brisbane and Hobart, taking in five matches, including a win over a top 50 player in Caroline Garcia and losing a nailbiter 7/6 6/7 5/7 to the player with the most wins so far this year, Elena Rybakina.
Cabrera holds a slight edge in ranking, has stronger form behind her and will have massive crowd support. That for me tips the balance in her favour.
Day One treble
Nao Hibino v SHUAI PENG
Sloane Stephens v SHUAI ZHANG
SAISAI ZHENG v Anna Kalinskaya
Team China is the theme behind today's treble. Shuai Peng is a former top 15 player who has been plagued by injuries over the past couple of years, resulting in ranking just outside the top 100 for now.
After regaining fitness, she ended 2019 in fine form with a title, a final and a semi-final appearance in a series of three W100 series events in Asia, a run of 13-2 on hardcourts (with both losses by retirement). She started the new year off with a win and a loss at WTA Shenzhen, losing to the eventual winner Alexandrova. She holds a 2-0 record over Hibino, the most recent win last October.
Sloane Stephens has been in awful form since Wimbledon and looks unlikely to stop the rot anytime soon. Her year has started with successive R1 losses to players ranked outside the top 100. In Adelaide, she lost in straight sets to Arina Rodionova who was promptly thrashed 6/0 6/0 in the next round by Marketa Vondrousova, in her second match back from six months off the circuit.
She faces Shuai Zhang who has won 11 of her last 13 matches, including a run to the final in Hobart this past week, only losing to red-hot Elena Rybakina. The head-to-head stands at 3-2 in favour of Stephens but that really is about the only thing going for her in this clash.
Saisai Zheng is another player brushed aside by Rybakina this year, losing first round in Shenzhen but she hung around there to reach the doubles final, gaining a little more match practice.
That success meant she missed her opportunity to play in the Adelaide event. In the latter half of 2019, she did claim some quality scalps such as Madison Keys, Alison Riske, Aryna Sabalenka and Danielle Collins - all seeded here.
Her record in Melbourne is modest to say the least, but each time she has been beaten by a player higher in the rankings.
Her Russian opponent, Anna Kalinskaya, has fought well to progress through qualifying, however each of those rivals is currently outside the top 150 and she will need to step up even further here.
Preview posted at 1145 GMT on 19/01/2020
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