Our Andy Schooler has 25/1 and 50/1 tips for this week's action on the ATP World Tour.
Fresh from a record-breaking 50th claycourt title – and 10th in Monte Carlo – Rafael Nadal is back in action in Barcelona this week.
That makes for a short-priced favourite – look out for firms offering only a third of the odds in their each-way terms – but, in contrast, this week’s other ATP World Tour event in Hungary looks wide open.
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Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell
World number one Andy Murray may have taken a wild card into the Barcelona Open but there’s little doubt who the star turn in Catalonia will be this week.
Rafael Nadal arrives here having just won a 10th Monte Carlo Masters title, in the process becoming the first man to win the same ATP tournament 10 times.
An 11/4 winner for my colleague Tim Clement in Monaco, Nadal will now look to make it 10 titles in Barcelona and it’s no surprise to see him considerably shorter this week – he’s odds-on across the board at time of writing.
I couldn’t really put people off backing him, with possibly David Goffin his chief rival in the bottom half of the draw now that Kei Nishikori – twice the champion and once the runner-up here in the last three years – has withdrawn due to a wrist injury.
The in-form Goffin got a rough line call when leading Nadal early in their semi-final in Monte Carlo. Had it gone his way, who knows? He may well get a chance to even the score this week and if anyone is looking to take Nadal on in that section, it should be with the Belgian.
Personally, I’m prepared to leave that half alone and instead head to Murray’s part of the draw.
He’s opposable right now with the Scot’s form considerably down on that which took him to top spot in the rankings in the second half of last year.
Like Novak Djokovic, it’s far from disastrous but the dip is there and leaves him vulnerable, as we saw in Monte Carlo last week where after being tested by Gilles Muller in his opening match he then lost to Albert Ramos in his second – from 4-0 up in the final set. Incidentally, Ramos, who went on to reach the final, is a potential last-eight foe for Murray this week.
An elbow problem clearly hasn’t helped and the fact Murray is even playing here this week (having requested a wild card) shows how keen he is to simply try to get some matches under his belt with the French Open now just a month away.
Clay is his least favoured surface, which wasn’t hard to see last week, and in four previous visits here, he’s never been past the quarter-finals. Basically, I’m looking for alternatives.
Ramos is one, as is the mercurial Dominic Thiem, but the man I like the look of is Pablo Carreno Busta, who has some impressive claycourt form so far this season, holding a 10-3 win-loss record.
He’s already made one final on the surface at this 500 level – in Rio – while he also made the semis during the South American swing in both Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires.
He built on that sequence to reach his first Masters 1000 semi-final in Indian Wells and last week came close to beating Djokovic in Monte Carlo – he held two break points at 4-4 in the decider before losing it 6-4.
Seeded seventh in what is very much a home event (he lives in Barcelona), Carreno Busta’s odds of 25/1 (BetVictor) look a tad generous.
He could have to beat Thiem in the quarter-finals – the Austrian did beat him in that Rio final – but that was a close contest and you never really know on any given day what Thiem will produce.
Thiem is 10/1 this week and while I do think he’s got something big in him on clay on the right week, that’s too short for me and I’ll happily back the Spaniard instead.
Another worth considering for those who like the odd huge price is Kyle Edmund at 200/1.
Edmund played some highly-impressive stuff against Nadal in Monte Carlo giving him his toughest test of the week, and if he can build on that he can go well in what isn’t the toughest section.
He may be British but Edmund is very much at home on this surface and he could be the man to take out Thiem, should they meet in round two.
First Edmund will have to avenge a recent Davis Cup loss to Jeremy Chardy. That came indoors but he looked much better with the sun on his back last week. The brave could have a good price on their coupon come the second part of the week.
Gazprom Hungarian Open
Just one member of the world’s top 20 will be in attendance at the first staging of the Hungarian Open in Budapest.
This venue takes over on the ATP circuit from Bucharest and so there’s no course form to go on – it’s not even been a Challenger Tour event in the past.
That top-20 player is Lucas Pouille and after his run to the semi-finals in Monte Carlo last week, it’s hardly a shock to see the Frenchman at the top of the market.
His efforts in Monaco will likely have taken plenty out of him, though, particularly mentally – he had some very close matches and it was his best result at Masters level.
Having been injured for an early part of the season, Pouille’s physical fitness might not be up to 100 per cent either so a second full week of tennis may be beyond him. I’m happy to pass him over.
Some will consider Gilles Simon a strong alternative after he pushed Djokovic hard in Monte Carlo. It was a performance which could kickstart his season and he has won in this week before when in the tournament was played in Romania.
However, the anti-argument is it was one match which followed a pretty dismal run and he’s always troubled the Serb. His price is short after that high-profile effort and he’s also overlooked.
I’d rather back someone in what looks a pretty weak bottom half, one led by Ivo Karlovic, whose big serve is never at its best on clay.
He has had some success on the surface but I’m happy to swerve the Croat with a couple of other making appeal.
Damir Dzumhur looks one who could go well at a big price.
The Bosnian likes this surface with some of his best ATP results having come on it.
He made the semis in Casablanca at this time of year two seasons ago and last season the last eight in both Istanbul and Umag.
This season his form has been pretty decent. He reached the quarter-finals in Memphis before losing to eventual champion Ryan Harrison and repeated that run in Dubai where he enjoyed the best result of his career by defeating world number three Stan Wawrinka.
My worry is he was rather disappointing on his return to clay in Monte Carlo, suffering a heavy defeat to Robin Haase in round one having only got into the draw as a lucky loser.
You could argue that a lengthy match in the final qualifying round when he was beaten 7-5 in the third by Guillermo Garcia-Lopez took a lot out of him and if so then 50/1 could be for you.
However, I’m instead going to take a chance on someone whose confidence can rarely have been higher, namely Briton Aljaz Bedene (pictured).
Having come through qualifying, he’s now won 12 consecutive matches on clay.
Admittedly none has been at main ATP level but he was very convincing in winning back-to-back Challenger titles (only one set dropped over the two weeks) with one final win coming against a member of the world’s top 40, Benoit Paire, who managed just four games.
First up for Bedene will be Federico Delbonis. The Argentine is handy on clay but was last seen picking up an injury in Marrakech and won’t be relishing facing the Briton, who has beaten him on this surface in the past.
Karlovic could follow before a possible meeting with Diego Schwartzman, another to impress in Monte Carlo.
However, it is worth noting he also lost in the first round in Marrakech before that and is 3-0 down to Bedene in their head-to-head, the Briton winning both claycourt contests in straight sets.
Potential semi-final foes include seeds Viktor Troicki and Fernando Verdasco but the former is in wretched form and the latter is very up and down these days despite his undoubted ability.
All in all, Bedene looks worth a small gamble at 50/1 – you may even get a bigger price once more firms have priced up the qualifiers.
Posted at 1815 BST on 23/04/17.