Juan Martin Del Potro

Free ATP tennis betting tips: Andy Schooler previews Basel & Vienna

Tennis

Sun October 22, 2017 · 7y ago

After a 12/1 winner last week, Andy Schooler has 7/1, 20/1, 60/1 and 66/1 tips for this week's events in Basel and Vienna.

Damir Dzumhur did the business for this column again last week, winning the Kremlin Cup in Moscow as a 12/1 shot.

Another tip, Diego Schwartzman, also made the final in Antwerp (at time of writing he is still playing).

So it is in good spirits that we head into this week's two 500-level events in Basel and Vienna which have both attracted good fields.

Here are my thoughts on the action:

Swiss Indoors, indoor hard, Basel, Switzerland

With all-too-familiar knee concerns forcing Rafael Nadal out, Roger Federer has a great opportunity to close the gap on his old rival by another 500 points in the pair’s battle to end the year as world number one.

He’s odds-on to do so and that’s no great surprise. The local hero’s form remains strong, he’s reached the final on his last 10 visits (winning seven of them) and conditions will suit – while indoor conditions have been largely slowed down in recent years, Basel remains on the fast side of average.

However, the potential fly in the ointment appears to be Juan Martin Del Potro, another player who is fine form right now.

The Argentine also has a strong record in Basel. A two-time champion, he has won 18 of 22 matches at the venue and only once in six visits has he lost before the quarter-finals.

Of particular significance is the fact that on two occasions Del Potro has defeated Federer in his own back yard.

Both of those matches were finals and the pair could meet in the title match again this year with Del Potro having been drawn in the opposing half to the top seed.

His quarter looks very winnable, Roberto Bautista Agut being the other seed in it, with Marin Cilic seeded to make it to the semis – a player Del Potro leads 9-2 in their head to head having won the last six.

For me, he’s the bet here at 7/1.

Del Potro is finally back in the top 20 after much-documented injury issues and recent results show exactly why.

Since Wimbledon, Delpo has defeated six top-20 players – John Isner, Tomas Berdych, Bautista Agut, Dominic Thiem, Federer and Alex Zverev.

Such results have taken him to the semi-finals of the US Open and the Shanghai Masters, plus the title in Stockholm this very weekend.

That’s perhaps the biggest concern – after deep runs in Shanghai and Stockholm is this week perhaps a step too far for a player who has had so many injury problems?

It’s easy to say ‘yes’ to that, but on the positive side Del Potro is still very much in the hunt for a place at the ATP Finals in London.

He may sit a fair way down the ‘Race to London’ but with several players above him having already ended their season, Del Potro will be eyeing a spot in the final eight.

To do so, he’ll likely need another couple of decent weeks here in Basel and then in Paris next week.

If he’s at full pelt, Del Potro will take some stopping but I’ll keep stakes small for obvious reasons.

I’ll go win only but for those considering each-way bets this week, make sure to keep an eye on the place terms – some are only paying a third of the odds.

Erste Bank Open, indoor hard, Vienna, Austria

While this week’s headlines will be made in Basel, Vienna promises to be more competitive and also looks the better betting heat.

The eight seeds are all ranked in the world’s top 17 but I feel plenty of them can be opposed and that brings into play some big prices from lower down the market.

The top two seeds, Alex Zverev and Dominic Thiem, both looked jaded during the Asian swing and with both having already qualified for the ATP Finals, I’m not sure motivation levels will be at their peak this week.

I’d be more wary of Grigor Dimitrov and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga but both made finals at the weekend and so will have tennis in their legs. At the least the former can say he’s chasing a London spot but will he also have one eye on the more lucrative (in terms of both points and money) Paris Masters which is looming?

With conditions slower here since the introduction of a Rebound Ace surface in 2015, Tsonga isn’t an obvious candidate, while similar theories can be applied to Sam Querrey, John Isner and Kevin Anderson. Isner has rarely performed at his best in Europe, while all three have failed to sparkle indoors.

Finally Pablo Carreno Busta looks to be in a post-US Open slump and I can’t be backing him right now.

So, who does make appeal from the non-seeds?

I’ll start with Richard Gasquet, who looked to have returned to both fitness and form in Asia where he made the quarter-finals in both Tokyo and Shanghai. It took the eventual champion to beat him on both occasions.

He opens against Feliciano Lopez, a player he leads 5-1 on the head to head, and has possible meetings with Thiem and Anderson in his quarter.

Richard Gasquet: Decent 20/1 chance in Vienna

With the Davis Cup final just a month away, all the French players will want to be ending the season in good form and Gasquet looks capable of building on a good few weeks here.

He hasn’t played in Vienna for 11 years but the conditions should suit his game and 20/1 looks worth taking.

I’m also going to have a punt on two really big prices with Jan-Lennard Struff and Viktor Troicki the players in question.

Struff, in the same half as Gasquet, has played some good tennis this season and is in a good spell at the moment.

Just before the US Open he made the semis in Winston-Salem. He also made the last four in St Petersburg, beating Tsonga in the process, while en route to the last 16 in Shanghai he took out Anderson. Both of those impressive wins came indoors.

Last week he was beaten by Del Potro in Stockholm, pushing him all the way in the second-set tie-break, which is not a result to put me off.

He starts against the woefully out-of-sorts Pablo Cuevas and looks capable of taking down Querrey (or Albert Ramos-Vinolas) in the second round.

Dimitrov is the main obstacle in the German’s section but at 60/1 I’m still prepared to take a punt to minimum stakes.

Up in the top half, one which includes Zverev, Tsonga and Isner, Troicki is worth a second chance.

I made the case for him in last week’s preview before he suffered a second-round KO in Stockholm.

Slower conditions here should work more in his favour, as course history suggests – the Serb made the semis here in 2014 and last year was a quarter-finalist.

As highlighted last week, he impressed in Shanghai, beating Thiem and Isner en route to the last eight – a stage he also reached indoors in St Petersburg last month.

Given he’s drawn top seed Zverev in round one, we could be in for early disappointment but Troicki looks an awkward opening opponent for the German, who went only 5-3 across tournaments in Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai.

Troicki has beaten him in one of three meetings, but they are yet to play on a hardcourt.

The widely-available 66/1 will tumble if the first-round upset is achieved and again it’s a price which looks worth taking a small slice of.