Our tennis man Andy Schooler assesses the ante-post markets for the 2023 men’s Grand Slams and picks out his best value bets.
Tennis betting tips: Antepost Men's Grand Slams
0.5pt e.w. Taylor Fritz to win the Australian Open at 50/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred)
1pt Casper Ruud to win the French Open at 12/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Denis Shapovalov to win Wimbledon at 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt e.w. Jack Draper to win the US Open at 100/1 (William Hill)
Changing of the guard; a phrase which has often been misused in tennis circles in recent, and not so recent, years.
Yet, surely, we are now standing on the cusp of one.
For the first time since 2003, the season ended with a person not named Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray as the top dog in the men’s game.
Federer has now officially departed the scene, while Nadal will turn 37 in a few months’ time and his ailing body really did look battered at times in 2022. As for Murray, since his metal hip was inserted, he hasn’t looked like challenging for the game’s top prizes.
Of course, that leaves Djokovic and it’s not difficult to construct an argument that he as actually the world’s best in 2022. After all he missed the Australian Open and US Open due to his COVID vaccine stance and won two of three biggest events he played - Wimbledon and the ATP Finals.
The Serb starts 2023 as favourite for all four Grand Slams and while it’s certainly possible that he wins the lot – he came within one match of doing so in 2021 – it’s not attracting me from a betting perspective.
He’ll be turning 36 in May and there really is a big pool of young talent coming through at present. It’s not long since the average age of the top 100 hit an all-time high. It will be dipping in 2023.
This column is about trying to unearth some big-priced value, not considering whether Djokovic is worth a bet at 5/4, and so without further ado, let’s move on and try to find some.
Australian Open
When: January 16-29
Where: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
TV: Eurosport
Twelve months on from the Novak Djokovic deportation debacle, the tennis may actually take centre stage in Melbourne in 2023.
Unsurprisingly, it’s that man Djokovic who is considered the most likely winner and it would hardly be a shock were he to win the Australian Open for a 10th time.
But, as with any tournament with a hot favourite, there’s always the each-way option to consider as an alternative.
On that front, the one I like the look of here is TAYLOR FRITZ at 50/1.
The American enjoyed a terrific 2022 season, his maiden Masters title at Indian Wells helping him finish in the top 10 and contest the ATP Finals.
He put up a fine fight in Turin too, only losing to eventual champion Novak Djokovic in two tie-breaks at the semi-final stage.
With his strong serve, Fritz is a player who enjoys the slicker conditions and the Australian Open’s increased pace since moving to Greenset courts in 2020 should aid his game.
Admittedly Fritz’s 9-6 win-loss record at Melbourne Park isn’t that good but it’s certainly not bad either and last season he made the last 16 before falling to Stefanos Tsitsipas in a tight five-setter.
French Open
When: May 28-June 11
Where: Roland Garros, Paris, France
TV: Eurosport
I don’t believe CASPER RUUD is being given the respect he deserves in the current French Open market.
The Norwegian is out at 12/1 for the claycourt Grand Slam event, a price which makes him just the fifth favourite for the title.
I don’t think that’s right.
Ruud was runner-up in Paris last year as he delivered on the claycourt promise he’d been showing since moving onto the main tour.
What could be important, certainly in terms of potential price change, is the fact he also became a real contender on hardcourts in 2022, reaching the US Open final, as well as finishing runner-up at the ATP Finals and the Miami Open.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he started the year well (he’s 25/1 for the Australian Open) and if he enjoys the pre-European clay part of the campaign then there’s every chance he’s already shortened up prior to getting the red dirt under his feet in April.
I’ve mentioned Ruud’s under-rated serve in the past but am happy to do so again – his figure of 86% of service games won on clay was the third highest on tour last season and if you filter out those who served fewer than 200 games on the surface, he was top.
The return is the area where improvement is needed, especially if he’s to start beating the true elite on a regular basis, but in Ruud I see a player determined to make the necessary changes and definitely think this is a price which might not be around come May, especially when you consider the doubts over the fitness of Rafael Nadal, one of those currently above Ruud in the market.
Wimbledon
When: July 3-16
Where: All England Club, Wimbledon, London, England, UK
TV: BBC
Fritz has potential here too as a 50/1 shot – he really should have made the semis last year but failed to see off an ailing Rafael Nadal from a position of strength.
However, it might be worth taking a risk on a player at a bigger price, namely DENIS SHAPOVALOV.
It’s often said about Novak Djokovic that Davis Cup success really provided the platform for his decade of dominance and while I don’t think Shapovalov will be going on to win 20 Grand Slams, capturing one is not beyond the realms of possibility.
The Canadian finished 2022 strongly, not just helping his country win the so-called ‘World Cup of Tennis’ but also making finals in Vienna and Seoul.
Perhaps that sentence is a nod to why he’s often difficult to put faith in – he’s lost several ATP finals and has just a single title to his name which is quite something for a player inside the world’s top 20.
Yet we know Shapovalov is capable of mixing it with the best, while in 2021 he showed that he’s a more-than-capable grasscourt player.
That was the year he made the semis of Queen’s and then the last four at Wimbledon where he somehow lost in straight sets to Novak Djokovic, a scoreline which is no way reflected how well the Canadian had played.
Shapo was in a funk during the last grasscourt campaign so did next to nothing but he should be confident going into 2023 given how he ended last term.
If he can continue to build momentum during the first half of the season, having 80/1 on your coupon will look good.
US Open
When: August 28-September 10
Where: Flushing Meadows, New York, USA
TV: Sky Sports
I wrote in my women’s ante-post preview how the US Open being more than eight months away means there’s real chance that several players shorten up considerably in this market.
You are really looking for someone who is going to break out of the pack – take Carlos Alcaraz, who would have been a big price 12 months ago yet ended up going off among the favourites at a single-figure price.
Now, it would be wrong for me to lump JACK DRAPER into the same bracket as a player who recently became the sport’s youngest-ever number one but I can certainly see a scenario where he’s much shorter than his current odds of 100/1.
The rising British star was real weapons – a big serve and a crunching forehand being the most notable. But he’s also got a solid mental game with one of the things we’ve already learned about him being how he is able to play his best tennis on big points.
Thanks to his deal with the IMG agency, Draper had some main-tour wild cards sprinkled among his success on the Challenger Tour in early 2022 but he was soon playing at the top level as of right and a 19-14 win-loss record on the ATP Tour is outstanding for someone so inexperienced.
He’ll be all the better for those matches coming into his first full season on the main tour and I definitely expect him to make more waves in the first half of the campaign.
If he does, Draper could be a runner at his home Slam, Wimbledon, for which he’s currently 80/1 having shown last season that he can play on the grass with a semi-final showing at Eastbourne and a mauling of Taylor Fritz at Queen’s.
However, he’s also at home on a hardcourt and given the court pace at the US Open has edged back up in recent years, I think there’s a good chance that Flushing Meadows can be the venue of his first big breakthrough at Slam level.
While the final may be asking too much at this stage, I can see us re-assessing that opinion in a few months’ time which makes Draper worth a punt now.
Published at 1155 GMT on 16/12/22
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