We are already down to the final 32 in the rejigged UK Championship and having analysed the qualifying matches and subsequent draw, James Cooper has found one bet.
Snooker betting tips: UK Championship
2pts Xu Si +2.5 frames against Jack Lisowski 10/11 (General)
The new-look UK Championship, with the top 16 straight through to the latter stages at the Barbican against as many qualifiers from Ponds Forge has divided opinion but for me, it makes a lot of sense.
A flat 128-man event at York with best-of-11 from the outset always felt like a bit of a slog and there’s slightly more gravitas to the event being held in the main hall only.
Also, from a financial perspective, for those down the rankings, a chance to play an opponent of broadly similar stature in most cases was a welcome opportunity to bank a cheque.
The quick turnaround from what has again been dubbed “Judgement Day” to the final 32 is also a plus and with the draw now out, it’s worth taking a detailed look at how the qualifiers safely navigated their way through to the Viking city of York.
As the above table hopefully illustrates, there was a whirlwind at Ponds Forge this week (about 15 quid’s worth of damage, apparently) as put simply, Jimmy White was the standout qualifier according to my numbers.
For context, it has to be pointed out that from a ratings perspective, Jimmy White’s figure coming into the event was a very lowly one, thus making it easier for him to “exceed” expectations given how I calculate player performance.
Even so, his frame supremacy was 20 over what was expected of him pre-match in the four contests combined (eg White’s supremacy over Mitchell Mann was -0.88 frames, so he yielded +6.88 for that drubbing) courtesy of a brace of 6-0 whitewashes prior to brilliant 6-4 and 6-1 wins over Stephen Maguire and Dominic Dale respectively.
Why was a player of White’s class ranked so lowly with you? Well, that’s a fair question to ask and in reality, a player’s rating is more fluid than a mere number.
In truth though, there’s been far more troughs than peaks in Jimmy’s performances since I started modelling snooker in 2017 and an artificially high figure on what he may be capable of on a given day would lead to me returning a skewed price, which is clearly dangerous as a punter.
In Ryan Day, he meets a player who is clearly in excellent touch this season but it’s still a favourable draw for White all things considered.
On balance, even with a natural rise in the Whirlwind’s current rating, I am still not totally sold that he is capable of replicating that form on a regular basis, so I will leave that match alone for betting purposes, particularly as the early 9/2 on the upset was quickly wiped.
UK CHAMPIONSHIP OUTRIGHT PREVIEW
Joe Perry and Dave Gilbert come out well on my qualifying numbers despite winning just two games each and a glance at the strength of schedule suggests that in Yuan Sijun and Graeme Dott, Perry had the hardest matches of all the qualifiers that played just twice.
He will be cursing his draw against Neil Robertson though, while Gilbert is only a marginal underdog with the layers against Shaun Murphy and that looks about right.
Regular readers will know that I have a lot of time for Hossein Vafaei but he’s the only qualifier with a negative frames over expectation figure courtesy of a curious display against Asjad Iqbal when a very heavy favourite, and a match against Mark Selby will test all facets of his game.
Instead, I will look to XU SI, who is second in on my performance metrics at Sheffield, to push Jack Lisowski close.
To get the negative out of the way, I’ve never really been convinced that Xu Si is particularly comfortable on the big stage and while it’s probably unfair to say that he fell over the line to qualify against Tian Pengfei, he did look very nervous towards the end before ultimately prevailing 6-4 on a re-spotted black.
On the plus side, victories as an underdog against Jimmy Robertson and the aforementioned Tian is an impressive return and those wins were hot on the heels of a 4-2 success over the classy Zhou Yuelong to qualify for the English Open.
Lisowski’s season has been pretty uneventful so far. Not awful by any means but nothing to get excited about too and the expansive game he plays could be a good fit for the underrated break builder that is Xu Si.
Si’s scoring all season has been impressive and while in Jack Lisowski he can expect plenty of healthy contributions in return, an open match will suit the Chinese youngster and when compiling the prices for this match, he looks a shade of value on the +2.5 handicap.
It’s a 2/5 v 5/2 tie with me in this first-to-six encounter and using those base prices, I rate Xu Si’s chance of covering the 2.5 handicap at 0.57, so around 8/11.
The 10/11 available is therefore well worth snapping up in the hope Xu can carry over his impressive form to this bigger stage.
Posted at 1330 GMT on 11/11/22
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