The International Championship begins early on Sunday and James Cooper has two recommendations.
Snooker betting tips: International Championship
1.5pts Jack Lisowski -2.5 frames to beat Gong Chenzi at 11/10 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
1pt Amir Sarkhosh to beat Jiang Jun at 2/1 (bet365)
With match lengths of best-of-11 from the outset, there’s an air of prestige about the International Championship, which has moved to in Nanjing.
As is often the case, there’s a mix of held over matches and round two proper ties to go at and there are a couple of interest from a betting perspective.
By his own exalted standards, this season hasn’t really got going for JACK LISOWKSI, with just one quarter-final appearance to his name (Championship League aside) not at the required level for one of his ability.
Lisowksi clearly isn’t at his sparkling best of late but his scoring prowess remains and there’s definitely an argument that the layers have overreacted and made his match with Gong Chenzi slightly too close at 1/3 v 12/5.
A teenager himself, Chenzi has an unwanted defeat against a 12-year-old compatriot on his CV when a wildcard in this event a year ago but he ended the campaign on a high, gaining a tour card through the China pathway.
Chenzi has slightly overachieved based on wins against expected given his opponents this season, with a couple of victories over Tom Ford and significant scalps of Si Jiahui and Jackson Page helping his cause.
That confirms he’s a dangerous proposition on his day but there’s still a gulf between his best game against Lisowki’s and the way to play this looks to be on the 2.5 handicap.
With Lisowski at 62% over 38% Chenzi on a single-frame calculation with me, I would expect Lisowski to cover this handicap 53% of the time, making him a shade of odds-on in that market.
That figure is in line with several firms, but Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook have dangled 11/10, which should be snapped up.
The other bet I like is in a fairly low-key game, but at 2/1, AMIR SARKHOSH looks overpriced to cause a mini-upset against Jiang Jun.
The pair did meet in World Championship qualifying during the spring, with Jun going through the gears in the second half of the match to ultimately prevail 10-6.
That followed a deep run at the Institute of Sport, failing only at the final hurdle against the classy Hossein Vafaei.
Both have performed with credit this season, Sarkhosh with a 6-6 record against Jun’s 8-7 and while Jun definitely deserves to be favourite, the gap between them looks a shade too big.
Jun is the flashier player/break builder and 15 years Sarkhosh’s junior, he has the potential to achieve more in the game but that looks more than built into the match odds here.
Posted at 1635 GMT on 02/11/24
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