Snooker betting tips: Form guide, preview and best bets for round one
James Cooper takes stock ahead of The Masters, before applying the lessons of the first half of the season to a couple of first-round bets.
Snooker betting tips: The Masters first round
1pt Zhang Anda to beat Shaun Murphy at 6/5 (General)
1pt Rob Milkins to beat Mark Selby +2.5 frames at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Following a couple of topsy-turvy seasons on tour, there’s a more familiar roll call in 2023/24, with Gary Wilson’s repeat success in the Scottish Open last time out the only instance where one of this year’s Masters field failed to triumph.
Several big names spent the festive period gearing up for this in a lucrative exhibition event in Macau, with Mark Williams defeating Jack Lisowski despite a 147 from the runner-up.
The Masters heralds the mid-point of the campaign for the game’s elite so it’s an opportune time to delve into the form so far and the table below fleshes out not only the win record of the 16 competitors, but their expected wins relative to the opponents faced coupled with the match length.
The usual caveats apply in that the Championship League, Shootout and the Macau Invitational results are not included. Each player’s output is determined by the master rating I have attached to them and as the highest-ranked players, Judd Trump and Ronnie O’Sullivan need to perform at a superior level than anyone else to maintain the same standards.
Anda the winner is...
It’s evident throughout sport that competitors can improve at almost any stage of their career.
For every Tom Brady there’s a Luke Littler but I’d have probably needed 20 guesses before predicting ZHANG ANDA in any 'most improved' player nomination for 2023/24.
At 32 years of age, Anda is a pretty exposed performer to borrow a horse racing term. On the tour since 2010, he never really looked a winner-in-waiting as he ambled around the table towards a string of last 32 and 16 finishes.
I suppose an event in China was probably to his slight advantage and in Tom Ford, his final opponent was also chasing the biggest win of his career but Anda took care of Williams, Ding Junhui and O’Sullivan in that magical week in Tianjin, proving the result to be anything but a fluke.
What’s also striking is that Anda hasn’t gone into his shell since, either, a run to the quarter-final in the UK Championship another excellent effort and while it’s true his comparatively low start of season rating made it easier for Anda to exceed his expected wins return, the numbers in that table illustrate that he done so handsomely.
Big two clear of the pack
Conversely, being the highest-rated players in the game, maintaining high standards is an absolute must to retain parity on a victories against expected metric and both O’Sullivan and Trump have certainly done that.
Win rates of 87.5% for the Rocket and 84.4% for Trump are outstanding, particularly when you consider the regularity in which both go deep in tournaments and thus face quality opposition.
To outperform pre-game expectation is no mean feat and with Neil Robertson and to a lesser extent Mark Selby struggling to recapture their best, the current gap between snooker’s top two players and the rest is the biggest it’s been since I have been compiling ratings.
Murphy struggling to convert chances
Robertson’s struggles are well documented but Shaun Murphy’s performance levels have perhaps gone under the radar a touch.
For balance, Murphy’s numbers would look a lot better had I included Championship League matches given he won the opening event of the season.
The margins involved are of course fine given the Magician has surrendered leads against Lisowski, Lyu Hongyu and Robert Milkins respectively, losing all three in deciders.
I’ve mentioned before that Murphy’s best game is truly a match for anyone but there’s clear evidence he’s vulnerable when he’s not in top form and as such, there’s a bet to be struck in the first round.
Given rate of progress for ZHANG ANDA this year, coupled with niggling doubts over Murphy, I’m happy to side with the Chinese debutant, who shouldn’t be overawed by the occasion in front of a boisterous Alexandra Palace crowd.
I’d still make Murphy a very marginal favourite but not an 8/11 v 13/10 affair (if you have a Sporting Index or SpreadEx account) and even the general 6/5 looks a touch too big.
The other wager on the early action is siding with ROB MILKINS in receipt of +2.5 frames at even-money against Selby.
I’ve laboured the point before that Selby is often at his most vulnerable early in tournaments and while Milkins hasn’t been able to repeat the heroics of 2022/23 yet, his season has been steady.
His UK Championship win over Thepchaiya Un-Nooh was played at a very high level and a 6-5 reversal against O’Sullivan, who ultimately went on to win the event, hints that the likeable Milkins is capable of landing a few blows in this.
Based on my player ratings, I would expect the Bristolian to cover this handicap around 55% of the time, which gives us a nice edge.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 04/01/24
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