Fresh from profits in China last week, Simon Crawford says defending champion Mark Selby is the man to side with at the Paul Hunter Classic snooker.
Recommended bets: Paul Hunter Classic
I have to admit I was tempted to stick with Shaun Murphy at this week's Paul Hunter Classic after tipping him as a 25/1 each-way chance for the China Championship in Guangzhou.
He duly reached the final on Tuesday to earn us some profits but was well below-par as he went down 10-5 to Belgian prospect Luca Brecel, who claimed the first of what will surely be many ranking titles in his career.
Murphy and world number one Mark Selby are the only two players out of the current top eight taking part in Furth, Germany, in what appears to be another open field.
However, I believe losing to Brecel will have taken quite a bit out of the Englishman, whose only consolation was moving up to number five in the latest world rankings.
Plus when you consider the logistics of travelling from China to Germany, the quick turnaround with his first game on Friday, the long flight and the jet-lag then second favourite Murphy might find this next event a real struggle.
"Luca fully deserved to win because he played much better than me throughout," Murphy reflected on the official World Snooker website. "My potting was bad, my safety was bad, my tactical play was bad ... I just wasn’t good enough."
Instead, I am going to throw my support behind tournament jolly Selby, who is the defending champion after beating fellow Leicester potter Tom Ford 4-2 in the final 12 months ago.
The 34-year-old is still waiting for his first title of the season after winning no fewer than five in the last campaign - only Stephen Hendry and Ding Junhui had previously achieved that feat.
He had looked solid enough in the China Championship, beating Luo Honghao 5-1 and Noppon Saengkham by the same scoreline before being edged out by home talent Zhou Yuelong 5-4 on a day dubbed 'Black Friday' as the world's top six players were all beaten and then scrambled to get early flights home.
As a result, Selby was eased out slightly from 7/2 to 4/1 favourite for this event and I'm happy to get involved with that.
His defeat in China may turn out to be a silver lining as he will have got the jet-lag out of his system, spent some time with his family and had the opportunity to get on the practice table.
He does face a tricky opener against Michael Holt and with the whole event a best-of-seven frames affair, shocks are more likely over the shorter format.
But there were enough signs in China for me that Selby is hitting the ball well and I am certain he will be keen to hold on to this particular title, dedicated to the former player from Leeds who sadly lost his battle with cancer back in 2006 at the age of just 27.
Murphy is the 8/1 second favourite with Stuart Bingham (12/1) and Kyren Wilson and Mark Williams next best at 14s.
With the likes of Judd Trump, John Higgins and Ding not there, I see Selby at 4/1 being full value for money.
Where to watch on TV: Eurosport
Posted at 1045 BST on 24/08/17.