Snooker’s silly season on the scheduling front is in full swing, with a one-day turnaround from the International Championship to the Champion of Champions, which overlaps with UK Championship Qualification next week presenting a headache for spectators, punters and odds compilers alike.
Not knowing the full 16 participants for Bolton at the time of writing makes a betting preview nigh-on impossible but at this point, assessing the form of four confirmed runners makes a bit of sense.
The expected wins number is a calculation as to what a 'par' performance would be given the opponents faced so far.
The greater the positive number, the better the player has achieved relative to pre-match expectation and the same goes on the minus front for underperformance.
Judd Trump
Played 41 Won 35 Lost 6
Expected Wins 31.92
Performance +3.08%
Following a meek 2023 World Championship display in which he fell at the first hurdle to Anthony McGill, it’s been a sustained period of excellence from Judd Trump.
O’Sullivan’s brilliance last term overshadowed a touch just how good Trump was in 2023/24, with five ranking wins in this modern era a superb return.
Okay, he didn’t land a Triple Crown event but he performed at a consistently top-tier level for a long period and this term has started in very similar fashion.
Trump already has a couple of wins under his belt, namely the inaugural Saudi Arabia Masters and Shanghai Masters and only an inspired Kyren Wilson halted the Trump barrage in two other ranking finals.
His wins to matches record is nothing short of phenomenal this season and to put it into context, given his schedule and relative ability compared to his opponent and match length, Trump could be expected to be sitting on a win rate of 78%.
The fact he’s operating at 85.4% is a feat that cannot be underestimated and while there’s always a temptation to judge the game’s elite on Triple Crown titles, Trump is demonstrably playing at a level very few in the game have managed.
Ronnie O'Sullivan
Played 16 Won 11 Lost 5
Expected Wins 12.41
Performance -1.42%
Any doubts over O’Sullivan’s status at the very top of the tree going into 2022/23 were firmly expunged last season, five titles, including the first two majors, a terrific return by anybody’s standards.
A reduced schedule in recent times is his prerogative and it’s fine when the results are coming elsewhere.
That hasn’t really been the case this season so far, though, and an ambassadorial role with Saudi Arabia coupled with a move to the Far East suggests that O’Sullivan’s loyalties are divided.
It’s a relatively small sample of matches at play here, but a negative expected to actual wins record so far this term (mainly due to a brace of defeats against He Guoqiang) confirms that he’ll start this event as second favourite rather than his traditional perch at the head of the betting.
Xiao Guodong
Played 26 Won 20 Lost 6
Expected Wins 13.48
Performance +6.52%
This time last year, Zhang Anda elevated his game from solid pro to a top-eight performer, gaining a breakthrough ranking win in the International Championship in what was an enormous purple patch in his career.
Taking over the mantle this season so far is Xiao Guodong, who to be frank, looked another fairly exposed performer for a long time but has seemingly improved out of all recognition in recent months.
Aged 35, this run of form isn’t easy to fathom, albeit Guodong has long had a reputation as a tremendous long potter and break builder when on a going day.
Guodong beat Kyren Wilson, Barry Hawkins and Shaun Murphy en route to Wuhan Open glory and he backed it up in this week’s International Championship, losing a final-frame decider to Chris Wakelin at the semi-final stage.
That disappointment aside, the above numbers indicate a huge over-performance and with that in mind, Guodong can approach his opening tie with O’Sullivan in more buoyant fashion than would have been the case a year ago.
Luca Brecel
Played 12 Won 5 Lost 7
Expected Wins 7.74
Performance -2.74%
Always regarded as something of an enigma, Luca Brecel’s World Championship record is a microcosm of his career in some ways, lots of low points alongside moments of sheer genius.
It’s pretty absurd that Brecel failed to win a single match at the Crucible before glory in 2023, and even then, his opening clash with Ricky Walden required a deciding frame.
Some players handle the mantle of World Champion better than others and while it’s perhaps not fair to criticise Brecel’s 'life comes before snooker' approach (he did after all reportedly enjoy himself between rounds in that golden fortnight) it’s undeniable that he’s endured a terrible run of form since.
His numbers certainly haven’t improved this term and Pang Junxu won’t be on Brecel’s Christmas Card list having inflicted three defeats on the Belgian already.
A quintet of wins from 12 matches should have been closer eight victories based on my numbers and with Brecel openly admitting that he’s not a frequent visitor to the practice table, he’s coming into this event short of competitive action, too.
A first-round match, therefore, against reigning Crucible king Kyren Wilson looks a daunting proposition.
Champion of Champions: Draw & Schedule
- Each of the four groups are played each day from Monday to Thursday, with the winner advancing to the semi-finals on Friday and Saturday. The final is on Sunday.
Monday November 11: Group One
- Semi-Finals, Best of 7 frames (1pm)
Mark Allen v Igor Figueiredo
Gary Wilson v Jak Jones - Final, Best of 11 frames (7pm)
Allen/Figueiredo v Wilson/Jones
Tuesday November 12: Group Three
- Semi-Finals, Best of 7 frames (1pm)
Mark Williams vs Bai Yulu
Kyren Wilson vs Luca Brecel - Final, Best of 11 frames (7pm)
Williams/Yulu v Wilson/Brecel
Wednesday November 13: – Group Two
- Semi-Finals, Best of 7 frames (1pm)
Judd Trump vs Ding Junhui
Ali Carter vs Neil Robertson - Final, Best of 11 frames (7pm)
Trump/Junhui v Carter/Roberton
Thursday November 14: Group Four
- Semi-Finals, Best of 7 frames (1pm)
Ronnie O’Sullivan vs Xiao Guodong
Mark Selby vs Shaun Murphy - Final, Best of 11 frames (7pm)
O'Sullivan/Guodong v Selby/Murphy
Friday November 15
- Semi-Final, Best of 11 frames (7pm)
Winner Group 2 v Winner Group 3
Saturday November 16
- Semi-Final, Best of 11 frames (7pm)
Winner Group 1 v Winner Group 4
Sunday November 17
- Final, Best of 19 frames (1pm & 7pm)
Winner SF1 v Winner SF 2
Champion of Champions: What TV channel is it on?
ITV4 will televise the event, with streaming available on ITVX.
Champion of Champions prize money
- Winner: £150,000
- Runner-up: £60,000
- Semi-final: £30,000
- Group runner-up: £17,500
- Group semi-final: £12,500
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