Our rugby union pundit is back - and fancying a youthful French side to shine at the Guinness Six Nations.
Recommended bets:
3pts France to win the Six Nations at 13/2
6pts France (without England) at 100/30
6pts No Grand Slam winner at 11/10
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The best weapon punters have in their armoury – and it can often be the hardest to carry out – is the decision to walk away from a bet when the price has started to run away from you.
That was my immediate thought when considering whether to tip France at 13/2 to win the Six Nations – no sniggering at the back please – considering they were as big as 14/1 as recently as November, and the price has been further chiseled away in recent days, with the 7s biting the dust last Friday.
So do we Walk Away Renee, or say “Allo Allo, I am still having some of that 13/2?”?
Apologies for that line, but I think it just about works, if only for viewers of a very bad sitcom in the 90s.
The negatives are considerable when it comes to assessing France at the current price, not least because of the usual clichés of them being unpredictable, undisciplined and perennial under-achievers.
And just thoroughly frustrating.
Cliches perhaps but undoubtedly true and, given their talent pool, it is sobering to witness that France haven’t won the tournament since 2010, and had the indignity of a Wooden Spoon in 2013.
They have finished as runners-up just once since 2010, and have fared fourth or worse, with the exception of 2017 when they won three matches, in the remainder.
That is a pretty pitiful return.
But a new coaching team of Fabien Galthie and Shaun Edwards have been brought in, and they have an incredibly talented, youthful squad to work with.
A lot of those youngsters have tasted success in the Under-20 World Cup in 2018 and are unencumbered by the dismal performances of the national team in recent years.
And you can bet your bottom euro that Edwards will have been bruising a few egos, and bodies, in the training camp.
And if he has got Virimi Vakatawa to defend as well as he attacks – and he is one impressive unit going forward, as he is ripping up the stats this season as regards line-breaks, defenders beaten, metres made etc – then it is game on for that French back-line.
Of course, the angle into backing France to win the tournament lies mainly in the fixture list, which gives them three home matches (against England, Ireland and Italy), while their opening two games are in Paris, too.
And if they do beat England next Sunday then it really is confidence and momentum-city with Italy at home next up, though admittedly that fixture has been no gimme of late (and they should have lost to them in Rome last year).
Beating England is definitely not out of the question. Indeed, they are a 7/4 chance in a single place, as I write, and as short as 7/5.
And their last two Six Nations campaigns could have been very, very different had they won their initial games, as they should have. And they were up against the subsequent Grand Slam winners then, too.
Look away now French fans as I am just about to remind you of Johnny Sexton’s injury-time drop goal, after about 40 phases of build-up, that saw the Irish win 15-13 two years ago.
And I will follow it up by outlining the incompetence of their 24-19 defeat to Wales last year, when they contrived to throw away a 16-0 half-time lead, gifting the opposition two tries and generally playing clueless rugby for the final 40 minutes.
And even when you look back to the World Cup, it is was only their indiscipline and one of the more stupid red cards imaginable – and an incorrect forward pass call for Wales’ allowed try in the closing stages – that prevented them from facing South Africa in the semi-final.
France have undoubtedly got lucky with the draw by having their opening game at home for three successive tournaments, but they do tend to start well regardless of venue.
Indeed, back in 2017 they opened their campaign at Twickenham, and only a converted 70th-minute try from Ben Te’o saw the home team edge it 19-16.
France also won their openers in 2014, 2015 and 2016, too (they beat England 26-24 in Paris in 2014) and if there is one certainty this week it is that Edwards will have revved up his new national allegiance to the max for the initial task in hand for his troops.
How the youngsters cope with his intensity, and for the tasks ahead, is the big question but you can’t dispute the talent. Lack of experience is a clear downside to accompany the freedom from previous failure, mind you.
Their pack could be an area of vulnerability, but the three-quarters will threaten and frighten any defence, and Teddy Thomas on the wing and the brilliant scrum-half Antoine Dupont (I really, really hope he is picked to start against England) would be definites in any combined Six Nations XV for me.
So, as you may have guessed, I am still in quandary as whether to swallow it all up and tip France.
I am still deciding as I write, so I will tell you when I have finally made my mind up at the end of the piece.
England will probably be the first port of call for many punters, and you can’t argue too much with quotes of 10/11 about them, even if away games to France and Scotland in their opening two games present them with stern tests.
But their other game on the road is their last match against Italy, and that gives them every opportunity to get busy on the scoreboard should points-difference come into play on the final weekend.
And I suspect it might.
There is little doubt that they have the most settled outfit – well perhaps not quite, but more of that shortly – in terms of personnel and management (Scotland are the only other team in the tournament not to have changed the decision-makers in the stands), and this is a side that was backed at 2/5 to beat South Africa in the World Cup final, on neutral soil, in November, lest we forget.
Of course, they came up short there after being physically man-handled by the huge Springbok pack, and indeed thoroughly dominated in the final analysis, most starkly on the final score board.
But it could well have been different if they hadn’t lost Kyle Sinckler very early doors in Japan, and – if my memory serves me correctly - had Ben Youngs passed to Courtney Lawes on the South African line at 6-3 down, with just the diminutive (but obviously mighty) Cheslin Kolbe to beat in an empty blindside.
Lawes would probably have stepped over him pretty easily I would imagine in a direct one-on-one, though it has to be said Kolbe packs more than a punch (and had actually clobbered Lawes earlier in the game).
As it was, Youngs literally threw away a golden chance for England to get their heads in front – and the Boks probably wouldn’t be the best of chasers of a game – and the die was cast.
England clearly have a huge chance of winning their first title since 2017 given their vast array of options and the memory of their dismantling of New Zealand still fresh in the mind, even if Billy Vunipola’s injury at eight robs them of their main ball-carrier and they haven’t seen to replace him like-for-like, but it is entirely possible that the Saracens’ salary cap scandal has thrown an unhealthy shadow over the squad.
Perhaps it won't – and the rumours have been circulating about the club’s inflated pay since 2015, so I imagine this is not breaking news to an England squad that we are told is a very tight unit – but bad feeling could surface if all doesn’t go to plan initially.
Given the injuries – and Henry Slade is another big miss with his ankle injury, as his left foot gave England balance in many regards – and that Saracens situation, and their tough opening fixtures, I can resist them, particularly as the scrum-half position continues to be a glaring area of weakness. Youngs and Heinz are not top-tier international quality.
The same misgivings are pretty much true of Ireland and Wales at their prices, primarily because of the management changes and fixture list, more so than their playing pool.
It remains to be seen if Andy Farrell can step up to the main job for Ireland, especially as he was obviously part of the coaching team that oversaw an Irish side that went very stale in the Six Nations last year and after an underwhelming World Cup that fell away so tamely after that impressive wet-weather dismissal of Scotland.
And away trips to Twickenham and Paris would certainly not have been Farrell’s choice of a gentle, easing-in tournament, even if the upside is they have three games in Dublin.
They have their injuries too and have to live without Rory Best, so often their forward and decision-making glue in recent years, so they are up against it for me.
If Joe Schmidt is a big miss for Ireland, then the departure of Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards cannot be underestimated for Wales. It is a huge hole for them to fill.
Wales come here as Grand Slam champions though, and you get the impression that the World Cup was a massive missed opportunity for them.
They got very lucky against the French in the quarters, but more belief and adventure could have easily seen them beat South Africa in the semis, instead of going down to a 19-16 loss.
New coach Wayne Pivac’s CV suggests Welsh supporters could see their team play with far more abandon, but it is fair of change of mind-set for the squad to adopt after years of Gatland and Edwards gnawing away at you about defence-first, and the transition could take more time to master than this tournament allows.
And, obviously, they have copped it this year by playing England and Ireland away.
Pass.
Scotland are similar to France in terms of their Jekyll and Hyde nature in the Six Nations, but if they can somehow edge a win in Dublin in their opening game – even without Finn Russell, who is on the naughty step for now, and that is some ballsy call, whatever he did – and turn over England next up at Murrayfield then they are clearly well over halfway there.
Rather big ifs those though and you struggle to see them playing a role in the winner’s enclosure here, as it promises to be a hugely competitive tournament – I can see plenty of single-digit handicaps - and it is pushing it to suggest they can even get three wins to put them into any kind of outside contention.
I saw enough of Italy in the World Cup to suggest they could be a team to have onside on the handicap on the games front in this tournament.
They were not totally out of it when the two clown props did their brainless tipping act on the Springbok goal-line and in back-rower Jake Polledri they probably have the player I am most looking forward to seeing in this tournament. He really is a talent.
So where does that leave us?
I think there are only three betting options in the outright markets.
France at 13/2, England at 10/11 and, given the doubts and fixture list, No Grand Slam at 11/10 (the last 5/4 in the marketplace disappeared on Sunday afternoon).
We scored a goal and hit the bar with our two outright plays last year – a Wales Triple Crown and No Grand Slam (thanks for that second-half capitulation, France) – and I was thinking about a variation of that theme here.
But I am going to put my trust in France, with a proviso. A betting proviso, at least.
So back them at 13/2 outright, and also at 10/3 in the “without England” betting.
Hopefully, we can cop on both, but the latter bet - and 3/1 is acceptable, if the 10/3 goes quickly - is the more appealing given my assessment of the tournament.
And, as I am backing No Grand Slam at 11/10 myself – I appear to have done that every year in living memory, so I can’t stop now - that has to be part of my staking plan, too.
Back later in the week with my betting thoughts on the opening round of fixtures.
Posted at 1150 GMT on 27/01/19