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2pts Italy +12 on first-half handicap at 19/20
How you view the Six Nations opener between Wales and Italy in Cardiff is, to a fair degree, grounded in how highly you rated Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards’ worth to the home side in recent years.
This is not to downgrade new head coach Wayne Pivac whatsoever, but the previous management duo are an incredibly hard act to follow, as they often instilled a will-to-win in their teams that perhaps greatly exceeded the playing talent at their disposal.
This was firmly in evidence in their Grand Slam-winning campaign last year, as they turned around some distinctly unpromising first-half positions against France and England, presumably after an interval rocket or seven.
Of course, they got lucky on occasions – such as in their quarter-final World Cup defeat of France – and they certainly weren’t infallible, as their defence-based gameplan probably cost them a semi-final victory over a South African team that were there for the taking.
But they will surely be a huge miss to this Wales squad in terms of their motivational prowess and man-management, and coaching skills too, obviously.
Maybe Pivac will fill that hole and more, and he comes to the job with a more adventurous mindset it seems, and he has sensibly picked a largely settled and experienced side in his first game, especially when you consider that the likes of Jonathan Davies, Josh Navidi and Liam Williams, to name but three, weren’t available.
George North moves into the centre again to accommodate debutant Johnny McNicholl on the right wing and, with Dan Biggar steering the ship and Japan sensation Josh Adams on the other flank, their back-line has a very dangerous look to it, for sure.
The pack looks solid – just seeing the name Alun Wyn Jones in the line-up will assuage any Welsh fears – and of course the return of Taulupe (whatever happened to Toby?) Faletau at eight gives the back-row more of a dynamic edge.
But how we do we play the general handicap lines of 23 and 24 on the game?
Italy have stayed within eight points of Wales twice at the Millennium in recent years – 23-15 and 23-19 losses in 2014 and 2015 respectively, though the latter was in a World Cup warm-up match – but they have copped it regally home and away since, with losing margins reading 53-26-24-11 in their last four meetings.
But, as ever with Italy, that tells only half of the story as they tend to hold their own early doors and are often a staple bet on the first-half handicap, whatever the opposition.
They were just 12-7 down in Rome after 40 minutes against Wales last season, and they even went in 7-3 up when chinned 33-7 in 2017.
And they led 11-8 at the interval in that pre-World Cup game five years ago.
So the half-time angle is an obvious one with Italy – and Wales haven’t been the quickest of starters in recent times, either - even if you have to go back a fair few years to see them come away with a result against their weekend opposition, when following up a 18-18 draw in Cardiff in 2006 with a 23-20 win in Rome in 2007.
Conor O’Shea was often applauded for the work that he did with his various Italian sides and he didn’t get the rub of the green on occasions – that match against France last year must have broken his heart, as well as my betting balance - but the fact is that they have now lost a staggering 22 games in a row in this tournament, dating back to 2015, so a fresh face was definitely needed at the helm.
Franco Smith is the new man and I think he has a pretty talented squad at his disposal, and one far better than their woeful record in this tournament would suggest.
Smith has rung the changes all right, as they field only four players that started against Wales in Rome last year and just seven from their 49-3 loss to South Africa in the World Cup, including the dismissed prop Andrea Lovotti.
Italy weren’t doing at all badly in that match before his moment of madness along with his fellow prop.
The three-quarters, as always, wouldn’t frighten many international teams but their pack has a very solid look to it and the back-row battle will probably decide the winning margin of victory for Wales.
I reckon Italy’s Jake Polledri will probably be the man of the tournament in a losing cause – he won’t get it, of course - and he will be ably assisted by his fellow loose-forwards before Sergio Parisse is handed his farewell match (es) at the end of the campaign.
My gut feeling was to keep stakes to a bare minimum here – and this looks a low-staking weekend to me - until I reverted to the obvious and saw Italy were generally available on the first-half handicap with a 12-point start (19-20 with Bet Victor). That looks on the generous side.
Sometimes it is best to keep it simple, stupid, and that will do for me, even if Italy at 9-1 in the Race To Ten Points market looks fair enough, too.
The good thing about rugby is that there is always a recent form-line to go at and, in the case of the Ireland -Scotland game in Dublin on Saturday afternoon, it is only just four months since the home team dismantled Scotland 27-3 in Yokohama.
That was an extreme rout on neutral soil but Ireland have dominated this fixture of late, with Aviva winning margins of 18-22-6-10-20 since 2012.
Scotland won 27-22 at Murrayfield in 2017, but they came a cropper 40-10 at home in 2015, so the potential for a wide-margin Ireland win is ever-present in this fixture.
And I do like the look of this Ireland side, for all that they have to put a disappointing year or so behind them and Andy Farrell still has to prove that he can cut it as the main man.
You couldn’t argue with any of the back-line choices, though maybe scrum-half John Cooney could feel a bit aggrieved to be sitting on the bench given the way he has been ripping it up for Ulster.
And Farrell has picked on form in the pack, making a ballsy call to leave Peter O’Mahony sitting alongside Cooney.
But that has the effect of making the Irish bench look very powerful, and I suspect Scotland could be in for a very long afternoon from opening to final whistle.
Obviously a lot has been made of the fact that fly-half Finn Russell is not available due to disciplinary reasons but I am a big fan of his replacement Adam Hastings.
He is an accurate goal-kicker and he works well with his club-mate Ali Price at nine – Price was brilliant when Glasgow won 45-7 at Sale recently - and they will pose the Irish defence problems if they get enough ball.
But there are a lot of ifs and buts about this Scotland team, as evidenced by the fact they have made 10 changes to the side that lost to Japan in their final World Cup game.
Granted, one of those sees one of my favourite players come back into the side, namely Hamish Watson, but it isn’t hard to see them struggling if Ireland get into any kind of rhythm early on.
I am not going mad on the stakes front here as well, as Ireland hardly come in on the crest of a wave either, but it is the home side on the general -13 handicap (evens with Betfair) for me.
Given France haven’t won the Six Nations since 2010 and have often finished fourth or worse since (taking the Wooden Spoon in 2013), they have a better record against England than you may expect, as we look towards Sunday’s game.
Obviously, they embarrassed themselves when having no defence to speak of in a 44-8 loss at Twickenham last season, when they left oceans of space between the three-quarter line and the (occasionally non-existent) full-back for England to exploit.
Which they did. And they also went down 55-35 in a bizarre, end-of-tournament, free-for-all in 2015. So they can be opened up at will.
If that happens on Sunday, then expect the TV coverage to cut to a picture of Shaun Edwards in the stands, with his head going purple and then exploding all over Fabien Galthie.
Or the Wigan man going on to the pitch and dragging a few players off, like a mum who has caught their 8yo swearing in a Little League match.
But I very much hope to see a different French side here.
France have won five of the 13 meetings between these two sides since 2010 and, the two aforementioned blow-outs aside, their losing margins in the other games read 8-2-10-5-10-3, only losing 19-16 at Twickenham in 2018.
They have also won four of their last six against England at the Stade de France in that period, losing 24-22 in 2012 and 31-21 in 2016, with the latter match in the balance at 25-21 going into the final 10 minutes before two lapses of discipline proved costly, and match-ending, for the home side.
That is promising enough, and I can’t wait to see their three-quarter line in action on Sunday.
Don’t get me wrong, I hadn’t heard of full-back Anthony Bouthier before I did the tournament preview on Monday – and fellow debutant and Montpellier club-mate, prop Mohamed Haouas, is another new one on me, too (Top 14 matches aren’t shown on Sky this season) – but perhaps that is not surprising given that Galthie has got Le Big Broom out after the World Cup.
But that back-line just oozes class and menace, and I was so relieved to see Antoine Dupont and Teddy Thomas getting the starting nod, while the centre partnership of Gael Fickou and Virimi Vakatawa is one dangerous-looking unit.
Time may tell us that England were a gift on the handicap giving away just a three and four-point start to such a young and untested side. And that is less than they were asked to concede to South Africa in the World Cup Final.
Of course, they looked the best side in the world when taking New Zealand apart in the semis, and they will obviously win the Grand Slam if consistently churning out performances like that again, but they have lost their main line-breaker in Billy Vunipola and we have to remember that their Six Nations campaign last season rather fell apart, too. They are not bomb-proof.
I am filing this before England name their team at 10.30am on Friday morning because I got fed up of waiting, and there seem to be only two (maybe three) areas of doubt.
It sounds like George Furbank will come in for an injured Anthony Watson at full-back (a fair blow to England) and it appears a toss-up between Joe Marler and Mako Vunipola at prop. It will look an incredibly strong squad on paper, whatever the final 23 chosen.
I have enough invested in a strong French opening performance to be going in personally again on any market here – and you will have too, if taking my outright advice – but clearly I would side with France on the handicap if pushed, even if the injury to hooker Camille Chat earlier in the week was a big loss and one that I was not happy at all to see.
So I am keeping my powder dry on Sunday’s game, though.
But hoping England get stuffed.
Patriotism shouldn’t exist in betting.
Preview posted 0930GMT on 31/01/2020