Six Nations: Final weekend preview and free rugby union betting tips

Recommended bets

3pts Scotland +7 v Wales at 10/11

1pt Italy to score first v England at 100/30

6pts Ireland +5 v France at evens*

*Bet recommended as cover for earlier antepost recommendation of 6pts France without England at 100/30

It seems a lifetime ago now since I previewed the Six Nations here on January 27.

The outright advice back then was three-fold, and it probably needs repeating as we go into the final round of fixtures this weekend.

I’ll start with the good news and thankfully one of the recommendations has already landed, namely no Grand Slam winner at 11/10 (6pts win).

Unfortunately, that only obliged on the back of France losing in Scotland, as I also tipped them to win the tournament at 13/2 (3pts win) and, at double the stakes, to do so without England at 100/30 (6pts).

It all looked so promising on paper after France won their opening three games and traded at a low of 1.62 on Betfair to lift the trophy after beating Wales in Cardiff.

But they had been riding their luck and, as feared in these columns, they came a Roy Cropper in Murrayfield when French prop Mohamed Haouas was sent off before half-time with his side leading 7-6, and they went down 28-17 without even a losing bonus point to their name.

That was a hammer blow to their title hopes, though they could still win if they do a job on Ireland and England fail to score four tries in beating Italy in Rome.

Ireland’s fate is actually in their own hands though – for all England are odds-on to win the tournament – as they will top the table if they secure a bonus-point win in Paris.

If France beat them, the home side are assured of at least second spot and netting us a 100/30 winner.

Six Nations: TV guide

• Wales v Scotland - 1415 GMT, BBC One
• Italy v England - 1645 GMT, ITV
• France v Ireland - 2010 GMT, BBC

Right, housekeeping done – sorry about that, but it needed to be explained and outlined as it of course helps shape some of the below analysis – let’s get on the nitty and gritty of fresh punts.

I was going to take Saturday’s matches in chronological order – I would have preferred it if the Italy v England game was last up, for reasons I will come to very shortly, but alas no – and the dead rubber of Wales v Scotland is first on the board in Llanelli at 2.15pm.

But, in one way or another, the crucial game of the day is the last one on and that is the France v Ireland game on Saturday night.

I am not at all sure it is ideal, or fair, that the final round of fixtures have been staggered, even if it was inevitable with the god of TV calling that particular shot.

To be honest, it doesn’t really matter for Wales v Scotland – as I said above it is a dead rubber, with nothing at stake bar professional pride – but, given we have three potential tournament winners playing in the final two games, Italy v England (4.45pm) and France v Ireland (8.05pm), they really should be kicking off at the same time.

I know England are heavy odds-on to stick four tries on Italy and win, but it is not a given, and Ireland will approach their game very differently should Eddie Jones’ men come up short in that department.

Ireland will just need to win in that scenario, tries and margin irrelevant.

And even if the Red Rose (always makes me hungry when I write that as it is the name of a local curry house) do win easily in a try-fest then Ireland will know exactly how many points they have to win by, as they currently have a points difference which is 23 better than that of England.

Similarly, if England do the business in a massive bonus-point win then France effectively know they cannot win the championship – not unless they better England’s winning margin by two points or more – so either way that Rome game is probably going to have big punting implications on the Paris match.

Therefore we have a dilemma.

France’s mindset is likely to be one of disappointment going into the game, and that is not good news for our 'without England' bet.

But, by the same token, if Ireland have to chase a big win, via tries or boot, then that could easily play into the home side’s hands, too.

I have to tip now though, and at the time of writing I am going to suggest anyone who took the advice to back France at 100/30 to do either of the following.

Lay France at around 8/13 (currently 1.59) on Betfair to at least protect your stake, so you can’t lose on the initial punt, or back Ireland with a five-point start at evens (BoyleSports; 10/11 with Sky Bet) to do roughly the same.

However, if you go down the latter route, then you also have a chance of what I call a 'double cop', that is the possibility of winning on both the 100/30 and even-money bets.

And that is never a bad position to be in.

Of course, hedging at a bad price is never good practice, but the game is very hard to call for the above reasons, so I don’t think that accusation can be levelled here.

You couldn’t fail to be very impressed by certain aspects of France’s win over Wales last week.

I am not sold on the unchanged French pack as a top-tier (yes, I thought Covid, too) international unit, and Ireland will look to get stuck into them up front, but their three-quarter line was sensational in parts last Saturday.

The try-scoring machine, Andre Dupont at scrum-half, is just a ball of muscle and class, the centre partnership of Vrimi Vakatawa and Gael Fickou looked like wreaking havoc every time they had the ball (their midfield clash with the couple of Irish bruisers opposite promised to quite something before Fickou, perhaps unwisely, was switched to the wing for this game), and Teddy Thomas, one of my favourite players, always presents the X-factor.

The loss of the injured Thomas is a therefore a big blow I feel, as he can create and score tries out of nothing with that hidden strength, and that more obvious gliding grace, of his.

And France will always give you chances, even under defensive coach Shaun Edwards’ direction, and Wales could have given them a game had Dan Biggar kicked his goals (or was directed to kick them instead of going for the corner) in the third quarter last weekend.

Ireland have won the last three meetings between these sides, most memorably via that passage of play that ended with a Johnny Sexton drop goal in a 15-13 away win in 2018.

You will note that Ireland didn’t score a try in that win (or in a 10-9 Paris loss in 2016) and indeed you have to go back to 2006 to discover the last time they touched down four times in Paris (and they lost 43-31 then, too), so their task in coming away with a big win here and hatful of tries is evident and considerable.

And they are a team in transition too, both on the pitch and in the stands, with new players entering the fold, and with injuries of their own to contend with as well. France, in comparison, are actually a more settled side in terms of continuity.

But there will be enough belief in this Irish squad to think they can go to France and get a result – one borne out of experience for many in the side, notably half-backs Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton, and that pair’s main goal has to be to shut down Dupont at source, as he makes his side tick – and their determination and desperation may get heightened (and France’s lessened) after the result of the Italy v England game comes in.

To be perfectly honest, I would probably have this game as just about a no-bet as it stands, on the outright and handicap front, if I was coming to it without previous investments to consider.

So if you don’t, then you may want to sit this one out until you know the Italy result, and are in full possession of the facts of what both sides have to do come Saturday evening.

But I tip as I punt (and vice versa) and I prefer Ireland with the start, so I am going to mostly hedge my France W/O England bet at by backing Ireland with the five-point start at 10/11, to basically cover my initial stake. That is my advice for those in the same boat and goes into the Sporting Life record accordingly.

Hopefully, both bets collect, and the recent winning margins in this fixture in France also point to a close game. The last six have been decided by a converted try or less (5-7-0-2-1-2), Ireland having got a good 33-10 hiding in 2010.

Ireland do need to handle Dupont though, or else the game could unravel for them.

I find it hard to have a strong opinion on matches involving teams priced up as near-certainties, and that is the case with England, who are 1/100 pokes and ranging from 31- to 33-point favourites on the handicap line, away to Italy.

That is understandable as Italy were their usual selves against Ireland last week, rugged and game but limited, porous and infuriating in equal measure, and they took another bad beating.

At home, they tend to have their moments, and they have notched up some memorable wins in recent years – they somehow beat South Africa in November 2016 – but they have been beaten 52-11, 40-9 and 46-15 in their last three Rome meetings against England, though to be fair though only lost by less than a converted try (23-19, 17-12 and 19-15) in the three previous encounters on home soil.

So maybe that four-try, bonus-point isn’t such a gimme, after all.

The last two 31-point winning margins have clearly not been lost on the odds-compilers though, and it is fair to say this Italy side is not a patch on the side who actually led 15-6 at one point in 2012.

England’s biggest danger here would have come from the skies and not the opposition if it rained – there were no real surprises when they named their starting XV on Thursday, maybe with the exception of George Furbank at 15 – but it looks as though it will be around 18 degrees and late autumn sunshine in Rome on Saturday afternoon, so no complaints there from Eddie.

England won’t ease off here either, knowing that Ireland or France could win the title in Paris afterwards (however unlikely) if racking up the points – and the exciting Ollie Thorley and Dan Robson could rip it up once he comes off the bench – so there will be no loss of discipline.

So what’s the bet?

I tend to think that England will cover the handicap, so that is probably the way to go if you are playing on the handicap, but betting with those starts is not my bag, and I do think they could have some early scares.

And maybe England will be rusty after their warm-up game against the Barbarians last week was called off.

Italy are known as a first-half side, too – and they did actually score first against Ireland last week despite being humped 50-17 – so BoyleSports' 100/30 about them getting opening up the scoreboard is too big (as is the 3s elsewhere).

I will resist a small dabble on Italy at 10/1 (Sky Bet) in our old favourite 'Race To 10 Points' market – I will be gutted if it obliges – but I will make the argument for it anyway, as I think it adds to the case for Italy to score first at 100/30 (the bet is also available at the bizarre odds of 13-4 elsewhere).

The 10 points bet would have been a loser after just 10 minutes in this fixture in 2018, with England 10-0 up after two tries in the opening exchanges, but Italy recovered and went in only 17-10 down at the interval.

Italy scored first and led Ireland 10-7 at the Aviva last summer (they also were 16-12 up at half-time against the Irish in the Six Nations earlier in 2019), while they actually went in 10-5 in front against England at Twickenham in 2017.

Italy scored first in their 25-14 defeat to France in Rome last March, too. So the Azzurri can be very competitive in the opening exchanges.

Another aspect which makes this bet more appealing is that you would expect England to eschew any easily-kickable penalties right from the off, as their immediate priority is scoring those four tries.

I would rather take the 100/30 than the 10s, on balance – they have failed to score a point in three of their last eight games, after all – but it is clearly only a minimum-stakes bet.

Scotland have had a torrid time of it in Wales since winning there 27-22 in 2002 – the winning margins have been 14, 13, 10, 15, 7, 14, 48, 4, 27 and 11 – and that makes for sober reading for people like me who half-fancied the away side. And Scotland lost 18-11 to them at Murrayfield last year, too.

However, Wales won’t have their crowd cheering them on at the weekend, and that could be a big factor.

It has definitely influenced stakes in my rugby punting, and for that reason I am going to suggest keeping them low. Games with no crowds have a very eerie feel clearly when watching on TV, and that must have a major, if indefinable, influence on the players.

Anyway, back to the match.

I also have a feeling that the physicality of the Scottish front five could just sway this game their way – the Welsh also lacked punishing ball-carriers against France, which is why they have drafted in Shane Lewis-Hughes from out of the squad to play at six – and of course they have match-winners in the threequarters, too.

Finn Russell is rightly welcomed back to the starting fold at fly-half – though let’s hope he draws a blank in the interception stakes this week – and the Exeter Chiefs' Stuart Hogg and Jonny Gray return after missing last week’s run out against Georgia as they were otherwise engaged winning the Premiership title with their club.

Gray doesn’t receive the headlines that Hogg does, but he should do as he is Scotland’s most influential player in terms of work-rate in defence. Apart from the mighty Hamish, obviously...

I am happy to take Scotland with a seven-point start at 10/11 (Sky Bet) to arrest their recent poor showings in this fixture – that would be my best stand-alone advice on a quiet rugby punting weekend for me – and I wouldn’t be too surprised if they won this at odds of 11/5 (Hills).

I may also lay Wales at around 1.5 on Betfair – for all the gnarly Liam Williams’ return on the wing, replacing George North, will probably improve their attack and defence – to have the draw on my side.

I definitely want that trading option, as I envisage this being a tight affair.

The forecast looks pretty wet for Saturday afternoon, so that would suit my bet.

I have over-written yet again, but I also have to mention Bledisloe III.

Australia drew the opening game 16-16 and were not anywhere near as bad as the losing 27-7 scoreline suggests last time, and I initially thought another close encounter was on the cards now they have moved from New Zealand to Australia to renew hostilities.

If Australia make their tackles, play a more intelligent kicking game, take their try-scoring chances and the referee keeps his eyes peeled for those pesky All Blacks offsides – it is easy when you write it out – then they could even win, too.

So Australia +9 was going to be a pretty confident bet here when I wrote the first draft of this piece on Wednesday afternoon. Then the team news broke.

The Wallabies were already without Matt Toomua and they have now lost their other playmaker James O’Connor to injury, which leads them glaringly short on experience.

Indeed, there is a stat doing the rounds that their backline combined now only have 12 more caps than Kiwi scrum-half Aaron Smith.

The fly-half and inside centre are making their international debuts and that is not good news when you are facing a three-quarter line as potent at New Zealand’s and a bench that also houses TJ Perenara, Ngani Laumape and Rieko Ioane.

I will sit my hands on this one now, for all the handicap line has now shifted to 11 after O’Connor’s withdrawal.

Good luck.

Posted at 1540 GMT on 29/10/20

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