Six Nations top points-scorer tips: Dan Biggar to pip 'wonderkid' Marcus Smith
In what could be the most competitive Six Nations ever there are plenty of candidates for the top points-scorer accolade, and Jon Newcombe is backing a Welsh veteran to see off England and France's wonderkids.
Rugby union betting tips: Six Nations top points-scorer
1pt Dan Biggar to be Six Nations top-points scorer at 10/3 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Fly-half, first-choice kicker, new captain and chief referee irritant … it’s a lot of responsibility for DAN BIGGAR to take on. But it is my belief, even before Owen Farrell’s ankle injury ruled him out of the entire Championship, that the Welsh lynchpin has it in him to top the Guinness Six Nations 2022 points-scoring charts.
Wales are still heavily reliant on kicks for their points, despite scoring a record 20 tries in winning last year’s Championship. Penalties and conversions made up 42 percent of their overall points total in 2021, with only France of the leading title contenders registering a higher rate. So it is not like Biggar is going to be short of opportunities.
Neither is his place in the side under much threat. As captain in the absence of Alun Wyn Jones, the 32-year-old, injury permitting, is also likely to start every game, and be Wales’ first-choice kicker. In Six Nations 2021, he was back-up to Leigh Halfpenny – the last Welsh top points-scorer in the 2012 and 2013 tournaments – but he still made up for lost time with 36 points in three games after stepping in for the injured Halfpenny at an average of 12 per game.
That sort of return would put him bang in contention to be top points scorer in 2022, as it normally takes around the 65-point mark to stand out from the rest. Biggar carried that form for Wales from the Six Nations into the Autumn Nations Series, setting new personal bests against South Africa and Australia in the process, and has been in decent goal-kicking form for Northampton, too, with a success rate of just over 80 percent.
The best overall individual points total in the last 10 years of the Six Nations was the 75 points scored by George Ford in 2015 (Jonny Wilkinson’s 89 points in 2001 looks unbeatable as the all-time best). Ford is obviously back in the mix now that Farrell is out, but it looks as though he’ll be playing a supporting role to England’s exciting new wonderkid, Marcus Smith.
Harlequins' Smith is what Americans call a ‘clutch’ player in that he can nail pressure kicks, but he is also prone to missing ones you’d expect him to get and we don’t think he’ll accumulate enough points from the boot to be in contention. His try-scoring threat could counter-balance that, however.
England's Smith, France's Ntamack and Ireland's Sexton in with a shout
France have a tendency to share the goal-kicking duties around, with Thomas Ramos, Melvyn Jaminet, Romain Ntamack (top points-scorer in 2020) and Louis Carbonel all more than capable of slotting the ball through poles, which dissuades us from selecting a Les Bleus player as top points-scorer.
Scotland have a kicker in Finn Russell who is more noted for his magical hands than metronomic boot and, anyway, Scotland registered the lowest percentage of kick points of all the nations in 2021 (30 percent). Pointedly, no Scot has ever finished as Six Nations top points-scorer but they have topped the individual try count before, as recently as last year when Duhan van der Merwe crossed the line five times.
As for Italy, forget it. Whoever finishes as top points-scorer will probably have almost as many points as the Italians combined.
Which leaves us with Ireland. Johnny Sexton rolled back the years to top the charts in 2021 with 65 points, repeating his feat from 2014, and the evergreen fly-half has obvious claims to match Wilkinson in winning the award three times. Fellow Irishman Ronan O’Gara stands alone with four (2005-07 and 2009).
Will Sexton, at 36 years of age and a history of breaking down, be able to get enough game time to put himself in the frame? He certainly looked fresh enough in Leinster’s record rout of Bath the other week, in what was his first run out in a provincial jersey since mid-October, but there’s no tournament more attritional than the Six Nations and backing him comes with too many risks for us.
Posted at 1040 GMT on 31/01/22
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