Tony Calvin picks out his best bets from the closing round of fixtures in the RBS 6 Nations including Ireland v England.
Recommended bets: Six Nations
3pts Ireland (+5) to beat England at evens - best not to overreact to last week's England romp
3pts France (-3) to beat Wales at 10/11 - solid French much more reliable than their opponents
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The most costly thing a punter can do is over-react. Unfortunately, the second most expensive is not changing tack quickly enough.
So what do we make of England’s annihilation of the Scots at Twickenham last week that has now seen them installed as short as 4/9 favourites to beat Ireland in Dublin this weekend, and up to five-point favourites on the handicap? And the spread betting line has England 5-8 point jollies.
It is a bit of a head-scratcher.
Quite clearly, England were totally dominant in that 61-21 victory at Twickenham and played with a tempo and precision lacking in their first three games. If they reproduce that level of accuracy – or rather if they are allowed to - then they will win this match by a double-digit scoreline.
But I have never seen a more spineless performance than the one the Scots put up at Twickenham.
Jonathan Joseph sliced through at will through the centre, and the opposition just didn’t turn up. And it could have been even worse had the Scots had their hooker sent off in the first minute for a dangerous tackle. He should have walked, too.
It could be that England kick on from that rampant success but I can’t ignore their mediocrity in their first three games, when they failed to cover the handicap and generally looked slow and ponderous, and lacking in invention.
Don’t get me wrong, they looked awesome in patches last week – and starts for Billy Vunipola and Anthony Watson hardly weaken their side – but there is no way Ireland will be as supine as Scotland here.
Indeed, just as England had a point to prove last Saturday after being embarrassed in the first half by the Italians, so Ireland must have the bit between their teeth this weekend.
They have not clicked in this tournament, their Italian waltz aside in the second round of fixtures, and their attacking play has lacked subtlety and penetration.
But, ignore the first 30 minutes of their opening match against Scotland, and there has been little wrong with their defence. They have conceded only three tries in their next three matches, and the last one against Wales is readily accounted for by them chasing the game at the death.
The Wales match was an opportunity lost, because had they been more clinical Ireland would have won that game with something to spare, for all you have to applaud Wales’ rearguard action.
A lot was made of Robbie Henshaw illegally entering the maul (which was rumbling over anyway) and had that try been converted they would have been a point up at a time when they were also dominating possession and territory.
However, their line-out didn’t function at crucial times, and it is no surprise to see Devin Toner dropped. Mind you, injuries to Conor Murray and Rob Kearney are not ideal at all. The first adds an attacking spark from the base of the scrum and ruck, while the latter gives you security under the high ball and in defence in general.
Ireland still have a pretty impressive starting XV though, and I think we will see a reaction from last week.
So Ireland +5 at even money has to be the call.
Before last weekend’s round of matches I would have made them slight favourites on their own patch against England, and I for one am not over-reacting. Sexton had a good game last week, when again in the wars, but he needs to engineer more going forwards.
Exactly what mindset the Scots will be in after last week is anyone’s guess. They genuinely went to Twickenham confident that they could get something out of the game, only to blow it in the first few minutes. They then capitulated.
It helps when you have the Italians next up to get back in the saddle but the visitors did pretty well against England and France, and they have a good recent record against the Scots. Indeed, they won 22-19 at Murrayfield in 2015.
The Scots will run away with this if the England game hasn’t scarred them but no way would I back them to cover a 25-point handicap after last Saturday’s no-show. And you are a braver man than me if you back them at 1/18 to win the game.
France have arguably been the revelation of this tournament and the striking aspect of their performances has been their defensive solidity.
They have conceded only six tries in four games (and two of them against the Italians) and have not shipped more than 19 points in any of those matches.
They have had a consistency of selection, and have reaped the benefits with improved performances.
The general handicap line is four points, though one firm offer -3 at 10/11 (Stan James) and that is enough to tempt me in.
Wales were brilliant in the first half last week and really showed their defensive mettle in the second, but they rode their luck on occasions and, again, we come back to that expensive question: Do we believe them to back up that level of intensity here?
Their home performances against the best sides in this tournament have been excellent and suggest "yes", but their displays in Italy and Scotland were somewhat lacking and scream "no".
I am hearing "no" the loudest, so -3 it is.
Where to watch on TV: Scotland v Italy & France v Wales on BBC One, Ireland v England on ITV.
Posted at 0945 GMT on 17/03/17.