Six Nations betting tips: Saturday February 27
2pts Wales (+6pts) to beat England on the handicap at evens (General)
2pts Wales to score over 15.5 points at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
1pt Louis Rees-Zammit to score a try anytime at 11/4 (Betway)
3pts Italy (+25.5pts) to beat Ireland on the handicap at 4/7 (Betfred)
1pt Italy to win race to 10 points at 9/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts under 51.5 match points at 10/11 (Paddy Power)
2pts Ireland to score fewer than 5.5 tries at 4/7 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
Wales v England
- Stadium: Principality Stadium
- Kick-off: 1645 GMT
- Referee: Pascal Gauzere (France)
- TV: BBC Sport & S4C
Jokes have been doing the rounds that Wales are only three red cards away from winning the Grand Slam and Betway are offering 6/1 on them featuring in another match involving a sending-off. Given that French ref Pascal Gaüzère is known for reaching into his pocket, and Manu Tuilagi was dismissed in last season’s fixture, those aren’t bad odds.
With clear protocols now being followed to the letter of the law, red cards have become commonplace. Two in the first two rounds of this season’s Six Nations were followed by five in five matches in the Gallagher Premiership last weekend. Keeping 15 men on the field nowadays is as difficult as getting Owen Farrell to crack a one-liner.
Although Wales have undeniably benefitted from playing against 14-man opponents in the wins against Ireland (21-16) and Scotland (25-24), it is doing them a disservice to suggest that is the only reason why they are now level on points with France at the top of the Six Nations table, albeit at 7/1 to go on and win the title.
From seemingly being at the depths of despair a few months ago, after a difficult 2020 campaign, Wales head into Saturday’s match against England full of confidence and furthered strengthened by the return of Rugby World Cup 2019’s leading try-scorer Josh Adams.
Even Adams’ Covid-19 protocol breach on the eve of the opening match against Ireland turned into a positive as it forced Wayne Pivac’s hand in selecting Louis Rees-Zammit on the wing.
King Louis set for another crowning performance
REES-ZAMMIT has been the star of the Six Nations and is the competition’s top try-scorer with three from two appearances. His personal duel with Gloucester teammate, Jonny May, will be one of many fascinating subplots to a contest that dates back to 1875.
You’d expect one or the other, if not both, to cross the whitewash in Cardiff and at 11/4 (Betway) and 11/5 (Paddy Power), respectively, they are both worth considering, with the Welshman our preferred choice.
With George North, who is set to play in his 100th Test for Wales, returning to somewhere near his best and Jonathan ‘Fox’ Davies back to partner him in midfield, Wales have more than enough cunning in their backline to hurt teams whenever the opportunity arises.
Four of Wales’ six tries have been scored off lineout possession – twice the competition average – yet, bizarrely, they have only won just over 80% of their own throw-ins.
Even a slight improvement in that area, which should be possible now that hooker Ken Owens has more game-time under his belt after a lengthy spell out injured, will lead to more scoring opportunities.
Looking at the stats from the first two rounds, the crucial part of the match will be just after half-time. This is a real ‘power play’ period for the Welsh as they have scored just over half their points then, as well as the majority of their tries. With this in mind, the in-play half-time market is worth keeping an eye on.
A tough one for England to tackle
Wales are more than happy to play without the ball for long periods – they average just 40% possession – because they back their defence to keep the opposition out. Indiscipline has got the better of England in the first two rounds with an unacceptable penalty count of 27 against them.
And if Wales’ defence remains firm, England could find themselves bashing their heads against a red brick wall, getting frustrated and coughing up more penalties, which Leigh Halfpenny will gladly punish if within 50 metres.
Gethin Jenkins’ input as defence coach has almost been as important as Rees-Zammit’s try-scoring ability. Wales have made an incredible 477 tackles across the first two rounds – the sort of numbers that some teams only make in an entire Championship.
They are an incredibly hard-working outfit who boast the top three tacklers in the Six Nations in Justin Tipuric, Taulupe Faletau and Alun Wyn Jones. England’s predictable attack will hold no fears for them.
Only the occasional moment of brilliance from May and Anthony Watson has spared England fans from a totally soporific experience to date. Eddie Jones is still trying to force the opposition into submission by winning the physical battle, or by turning them on their heels through endless kicking.
But with Manu Tuilagi missing, Ollie Lawrence rejected after one outing and No.8 Billy Vunipola looking the shadow of the player that he was a few years ago, England’s gain-line busting ability is not what it once was.
Kyle has the potential to carry England home
Vunipola did two good things against Italy – a charged down kick and a crucial intervention inside his own 22. But as an attacking force, he was largely redundant, spending most of his time leaning on rucks and heavy breathing. His carry count was in single figures which, against Italy, is unheard of for him.
Alex Dombrandt and Sam Simmonds would have been much better options and Jones’ loyalty to out-of-form players looks misplaced against an opponent that always raises its game against the English, crowd or no crowd.
With the load not being spread as thinly, Kyle Sinckler is set for a lot of work in open play and that could negatively impact on his scrummaging, an area where England will look to take Wales on.
If Sinckler can do both to a high standard, he’ll be in contention for back-to-back man-of-the-match awards, after earning the accolade in the 41-18 win against Italy. He’s 40/1 with BoyleSports for what would surely be an unprecedented achievement for a tight-head prop.
No love lost is ever lost in this fixture but when your own fans, sat at home screaming at the TV, can’t even bear to bring their team close to their hearts, something has to be amiss. Even if England managed to find a way to win, they’ll do well to do so by more than six points and Wales, who can beat their own TOTAL POINTS line, are fancied on the HANDICAP.
Shop around and you can get a shade of odds-on with a 6.5-point start, but most firms set the line at six and even-money is a good enough price to take. Wales's points line meanwhile is set at 15.5 and they can find the 16 or more needed to land a winner.
Italy v Ireland
- Stadium: Stadio Olimpico
- Kick-off: 1415 GMT
- Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France)
- TV: ITV
Calls for Italy’s relegation from the Six Nations grow ever louder as they enter Sunday’s match between the Championship’s two winless sides on the back of a record 29-game losing streak in the Six Nations.
The Azzurri have only ever beaten Ireland once before, in Rome in 2013, and a second success would go some way to silencing the doubters.
By naming an unchanged starting XV, Italy head coach Franco Smith has kept faith with the players who went down to a 41-18 defeat to England.
Sceptics would say he has very few alternatives and while there is some truth to that, given the struggles of Benetton and Zebre in the PRO14, he has clearly seen something worth holding onto, and rightly so.
Despite what people say, Italy have shown some promise, and have fashioned some good tries in the first two rounds. Their game-management still leaves a lot to be desired but if they can get over their malaise in the middle section of matches, that elusive win might not be too far away.
Middle section gives Italy the hump
Twenty-five of their points have been scored in the first quarter and the last quarter, with only three points coming in between. During that time, from the 20-minute mark to the hour mark, they have conceded 54 of their 91 points (including eight tries out of 13).
Both of Ireland’s tries were scored either side of the break, so the Azzurri will probably need to build up a decent early points buffer if they are to add to Ireland’s angst. They are a tempting 9/1 with Sky Bet in the RACE TO 10 POINTS and that's worth a small play.
Attack coach Mike Catt insisted during the week that Ireland are on the right track and better times lay ahead. But a return of just two tries and 29 points is disappointing for a largely Leinster backline that scores points for fun at provincial level.
Ireland don’t lack for territory and possession, so that suggests something is wrong with the mindset and systems. Having a 10 that seems to be injured every other game, in captain Johnny Sexton, certainly doesn’t help.
The inability to focus for a full 80 minutes has consistently let this Italian team down, which is perhaps not surprising given that three Test centurions – Sergio Parisse, Leonardo Ghiraldini and Alessandro Zanni – are no longer around.
But if some new leaders can step up and fill the void and instil some self-belief in those around them when things turn sour, then Ireland could be run a lot closer than the three-to-four-score margin many are predicting.
Trying times for Irish attack
Ireland crossed the Italian line seven times in winning 50-17 in the delayed final round of the last Six Nations back in October.
But they have failed to score more than three tries in each of the seven games since, so we’re favouring a lower final scoreline than the one seen in Dublin and a try count of LESS THAN SIX for the men in green.
We'll also back ITALY TO WIN ON THE HANDICAP, though rather than take the 22-point lines being quoted by most major firms, it's worth taking shorter odds and nudging their start up to 25.5, while playing under on the TOTAL MATCH POINTS.
Six Nations content
- Six Nations fixtures, results, table and history
- Six Nations betting tips: Top try scorer
- Six Nations betting tips: Top points scorer
- My Sporting Mind Podcast: England wing Anthony Watson
- My Sporting Mind Podcast: England wing Jonny May
- TheRugbyTipster.com
Posted at 1220 GMT on 26/02/21
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