Six Nations tips: Best bets for this weekend’s round two matches including Italy v England
Jon Newcombe bagged 5/1 and 16/1 Six Nations winners on Saturday. Get his verdict on Sunday's Italy v England encounter in Rome.
Six Nations betting tips: Round two
1.5pts England (-24.5) to beat Italy on the handicap at 5/6 (BetVictor)
1.5pts under 42.5 points in France v Ireland at 7/10 (Unibet)
0.5pt France to win by 6-10 points at 5/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair & William Hill)
0.5pt Gregory Alldritt to be Man of the Match at 16/1 (BoyleSports)
1.5pts Scotland to beat Wales at 8/11 (bet365, William Hill)
Italy v England
Kick-off time: Sunday, 1500 GMT
Venue: Stadio Olimpico
Where to watch: ITV
Best bet: England (-24) to beat Italy on the handicap
Key stats
- England have lost their opening match for the third Six Nations in a row
- Italy have lost their last 33 Six Nations matches, dating back to a 22-19 defeat of Scotland at Murrayfield on 28 February, 2015
- In this run, Italy have scored 51 tries and 429 points but conceded 178 tries and 1,339 points
- In total, Italy have won just 12 and drawn one of their 111 Six Nations matches, losing 98
- Italy have finished bottom of the Championship for six years in a row and seven times in eight years with Scotland bottom in 2015
- Italy have lost their last 20 home matches in the Six Nations dating back to a 22-15 win against Ireland on 16 March, 2013
- England are the only team Italy are yet to beat in the Six Nations. Seven of Italy’s 12 Six Nations victories have come against Scotland with the others against France (2), Ireland (2) and Wales (1)
- The closest the Azzurri have come to victory in 28 tests with England are four-point losses in 2008 and 2012 (they did draw 15-15 in 1986 but that was a non-cap match for England)
- Italy have never scored more than three tries in a match with England
The bookies seem to have overplayed the resistance shown by Italyagainst France in Paris last Sunday. While it’s fair to say that, for once, the game was more than a just a damage-limitation exercise, with the Azzurri showing they can string together some meaningful passages of play, at the end of the day they still lost by 27 points to a Les Bleus side well below its best.
For the large part, England were pretty good in their 20-17 loss to Scotland at Murrayfield. Arguably, it was only two moments of madness – one from head coach Eddie Jones in taking off Marcus Smith, scorer of all their points, and one from hooker Luke Cowan-Dickie whose rush-of-blood slapping of a crossfield kick straight in touch cost his side a decisive penalty try – that cost them victory.
England will come back strongly from that setback at Stadio Olimpico, a venue where It has profited handsomely in the past, and -24.5 POINTS should not present a problem on the handicap for a team that has plenty of tries in it.
England has an average winning margin of 33 points over the last four fixtures in Rome, and Smith should have plenty of front-foot ball to create attacking opportunities.
Wales v Scotland
Kick-off time: Saturday, 1415 GMT
Venue: Principality Stadium
Where to watch: BBC
Best bet: Scotland to win
Key stats
- Scotland have never won their first two games in a Six Nations campaign
- Scotland have lost on their last 10 visits to Cardiff
- In round one, Wales were kept pointless in the first half for the first time in 71 Tests, dating back to March 2016
- Dan Biggar drew a blank in Dublin and has failed to score a single point in five out of eight appearances against Scotland
- Owen Watkin and Nick Tompkins have only started one previous Test together in the Wales midfield – against Scotland in the 2021 Six Nations, when Wales won 25-24
- Wales made the highest number of tackles in round one (191)
- Wales gave away the joint-highest number of penalties in round one alongside France (14)
Win in Paris for the first time in 22 years… pas du problem. Win at Twickenham for the first time in 28 years… job done. Scotland laid two demons to rest in 2021 in beating France and England in their own backyard and now have a golden opportunity to make it three by winning in Cardiff for the first time since 2002.
Once terrible travellers in the Six Nations at any venue other than Rome, this SCOTLAND team is made of sterner stuff mentally and physically and is good enough to get the job done and create another small piece of history by winning back-to-back games at the start of a Six Nations campaign.
While Wales head coach Wayne Pivac has addressed some of the failings of his team in Dublin weekend by bringing in specialists centre Owen Watkin and promoting Ross Moriarty from the bench into the starting back-row, it still lacks identity and purpose.
Moriarty will bring some necessary oomph in the ball-carrying stakes while, defensively at least, Watkin won’t be exposed as the injured Josh Adams, but they still look lightweight in too many key areas.
Scotland have never been the biggest of teams themselves but they’re a team bristling with raw aggression, epitomised by tireless flanker Hamish Watson.
Defence coach Steve Tandy is one of the best in the business and if Wales are as lateral in attack as they were against Ireland, try-scoring opportunities may be few and far between for the men in red.
On the occasion of Dan Biggar’s 100th international cap – a milestone that Jon Davies will also reach if called upon from the bench – it could be a sobering experience for Wales fans who even have full-strength beer on tap inside the stadium to drown their sorrows.
With the teams selected and a referee in Nic Berry who likes the ball to move away quickly from the ruck, expect a fast and loose game, more so the latter if the forecast for light showers is accurate. It's one Scotland can win to keep the Grand Slam dream alive.
France v Ireland
Kick-off time: Saturday, 1645 GMT
Venue: Stade de France
Where to watch: ITV
Best bet: France to win by 6-10 points
Key stats
- France’s discipline was poor against Italy – they conceded the joint-most penalties (14) in round one – and Carbery will need to punish them if they incur the referee’s wrath again
- Ireland have gone six Tests without conceding a yellow card and will need to keep all 15 men on the pitch against a team with brilliant broken fielder runners like Gabin Villiere and Damian Penaud
- Ireland are on a nine-match winning run
- Ireland have a record of W2 L2 D1 for their last five visits to France
- France were the last team to beat Ireland – 15-13 in the 2021 Championship, the 100th meeting between the sides
- France (23) and Ireland (22) beat most defenders in round one but both teams came away with an average of less than two points per visit into the opposition 22
- The last four springtime games in Paris between the teams have yielded an average of just 30 points
Just one round into the Six Nations and France’s game against Ireland in Paris this weekend is already being talked up as a potential title decider.
The top two teams in the embryonic Six Nations table come together at a time when both are riding high in confidence.
After a Covid-disrupted build-up, pre-tournament favourites France laboured at first against a competitive Italy but their class started to tell as the contest wore on and will be all the better for having had that hit-out.
Such was his impact, France number eight GREGORY ALLDRITT would have won the Man of the Match award in that game had it not been for Gabin Villière’s hat-trick heroics.
Alldritt, who was Man of the Match in two of the five rounds of the 2020 Six Nations, including the October win over Ireland, was typically industrious in Paris, making 20-plus carries, gaining 96 metres with ball in hand, as well as chipping in with 13 tackles, and might just get the nod this time at 16/1.
Ireland were totally dominant in beating Wales 29-7, and like France, left a lot of points out there. Both teams will be looking to improve their points return per 22 visit, although that might be tough with the respective defences being overseen by former Rugby League men in Shaun Edwards and Andy Farrell.
Dominance in the collisions and set-piece solidity are strengths of both teams, too, and in a game of tight margins like this promises to be, it sometimes takes extraordinary players to do extraordinary things. That was certainly the case in 2018 when Johnny Sexton won the game for Ireland with a last-gasp drop goal in the Paris rain.
Sexton absence could be fatal
Sadly for Ireland, Sexton has been ruled out with a hamstring injury and his absence, as fine a player that replacement Joey Carbery is, cannot be understated.
Sexton is the man who orchestrates the intricate pull-back plays that have given Ireland an attacking edge in the backs that had been lacking for so long.
When executed well, such moves create space and line-breaking opportunities but there is a fine line between success and failure and having the main cog in that machine missing could be crucial, especially when France will be up and at them in defence.
It speaks volumes for Sexton’s importance to the cause, as well as Carbery’s bad luck with injuries to be fair, that the Munster man, who had to leave Leinster to step out of Sexton’s shadow has never before, in a 28-cap, five-year Test career, been handed the responsibility to start at 10 in the Six Nations.
With an 89 percent goal-kicking success rate for Ireland in 2021, his record suggests Carbery is up to the task of keeping the scoreboard ticking over. But knocking over a pressure kick to win the match at a cauldron like the Stade de France is altogether different to an international against say the Canadas of this world.
France haven’t escaped from round one entirely unscathed themselves, with hard-running centre Jonathan Danty ruled out after injuring his ankle against Italy. That leaves Ireland facing another untried centre partnership in Yoram Moefana, who makes his first Six Nations start, and Gaël Fickou, and they will hope to profit as much as they did last week against Wales’ makeshift midfield, where Josh Adams was found wanting and partner Nick Tompkins was forced to attempt over 20 tackles.
Meanwhile, James Ryan is handed the Ireland captaincy as a result of Sexton’s injury, and all eyes will be on the lock to see if he rises to the occasion. Up until now his only previous experience in the role came in summer or November internationals, not in the Six Nations.
To have a new goal-kicker and fly-half as well as a new captain explains why the handicap for Ireland has increased by two points from +3 to +5. The advantage has ever so slightly edged towards France and Ireland may have to be content with coming away from Paris with a losing bonus point, which could still be priceless in the overall scheme of things as a Grand Slam winner seems improbable this year.
FRANCE TO WIN BY 6-10 POINTS could be the way to go as well as UNDER 42.5 POINTS, with the home side taken to land the first major blow and maintain their flawless start – hopefully with Alldritt front and centre.
For more, visit therugbytipster.com
Posted at 1150 GMT on 11/02/22
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