Six Nations: Round three key battles, tactics and predications
After a week's break - and boy didn't we all need it after two frantic opening weekends - the Six Nations is back for round three, which includes a potential title and Grand Slam deciding fixture.
Tony Calvin will deliver his best bets for each game later in the week, but in the meantime, I'm taking a look at the key tactical battles that could determine the outcome of each matches and some of my own tips.
Wales v England
Kick Off: Saturday February 23, 1645 GMT
Venue: Principality Stadium
TV: BBC 1 & S4C
Summary
A title and potentially Grand Slam deciding encounter between these two long standing arch rugby rivals. Both are two wins from two, both with big chances of achieving a Six Nations and World Cup double in 2019.
However they come into this one in differing form. Wales are on their best winning run since in 1910, and victory on Saturday will take them to a record breaking 11 straight wins. However they have been poor in their opening two victories against France and Italy and were very unfortunate to beat the former.
After a terrible 2018 up until November, England are now the form Northern Hemisphere team after stunning Ireland in the opening round and hammering a sorry France.
That is way, despite being the away side, England are favourites to win on Saturday evening and go on and take the title. But this puts Wales in their favourite position as underdogs and this has proved to be the role that brings out the best in them, especially when facing England.
Tactical Talk
England have the varied, dangerous attack; Wales have the stubborn dogged, strong defence, it will be so intriguing to see which one cracks under the pressure.
Eddie Jones will target another quick start - England have scored tries within the opening five minutes in their last five Test matches. Meanwhile Wales have started slowly in their first two games. So England will go all guns blazing to get a good lead early and quieten the passionate home fans.
The longer Wales are in this game the louder those fans will get and the hard it will become for the Red Rose.
For Wales, we are still waiting to see their best form and a complete, clear game plan - Saturday is when both must be delivered. A lot will depend on who is selected at fly half.
Gareth Anscombe is coach Warren Gatland's favourite and delivers a greater variety of game plan and creativity. Dan Biggar is Mr Reliable and Mr Big Game as he brings an excellent kicking game from both hand and tee.
Against France Gatland started with Anscombe, then brought Biggar on when it was clear the game needed a controlled kicking direction. I wonder if this time it will be swapped around. Biggar, if fit, to start and guide Wales around the park with his boot, and offering a more reliable boot to get points on the board in a potentially close, nervy game. Then bring Anscombe on if Wales need creativity against tiring English legs.
So I think we will see a big aerial battle here, especially in the first half. Both half back pairing's will put the ball high for their back three to chase. These are two of the best teams in the world as this tactic, with May, Nowell and Daly England's back three and North, Williams and Adams there for Wales.
Whichever trio wins this battle will be a key factor in determining territory and ultimately the match winner.
Prediction
I predicted Wales to win the Six Nations before the tournament, sighting home advantage against England and Ireland as a key reason. However they have not performed yet and I'm worried making so many changes against Italy means they will lack cohesion and momentum for this one. If this happens and England resume with such high standards then it will be their day.
But I'll keep my faith in Gatland deliberately trying to peak for this game and expect to see a fired up Wales, driven on by a fierce home crowd. A break for England came at the wrong time, and Wales are underdogs for the first time in this year's Six Nations and that's when they are at their best.
Bets: Wales to win at 11/8
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France v Scotland
Kick Off: Saturday February 23, 1415 GMT
Venue: Stade de France
TV: BBC 1
Summary
Scotland have mixed emotions so far, having shown some good stuff against Italy and Ireland, but being reminded against the Irish how far off they are becoming a title challenging outfit.
France are shambolic and, as and I wrote in my half term report, need a root and branch reset of their entire rugby system.
For Scotland this game is another defining one. Their away form is woeful and they need to fix this up ASAP as they build-up to become a great side. They've won just three away Six Nations matches since 2013, all against Italy and they've not won in France since 1999.
For France this is their match to kick start the resurgence. Beat Scotland and then Italy in their final game and they will finish fourth and paper over the cracks ahead of the World Cup. Lose and there is a huge possibility of them finishing bottom of the Six Nations with five defeats.
Tactical Talk
This looks to be a tale of two tactics - France keeping it tight and Scotland trying to get it wide.
France will look at Scotland's frailties and how Ireland beat them two weeks ago and feel excited that their huge pack - the heaviest in Test rugby history - can finally have a match winning impact.
So expect Le Bleu to keep it close in and hammer and hammer the Scotland line with their big ball carrying players.
Scotland want to run the all and are at their best when they can do this. It is high reward and high risk, as we saw against Ireland and this is what makes this one an exciting and hard to call encounter.
If Gregor Townsend's side execute their plays clinically then they will win. If they are sloppy and give ball away cheaply and in open space, France will destroy them.
France were humiliated at Twickenham, but the one time England kicked possession away poorly and gave them the ball in space the French went 80 metres to score the try of the game. On the same weekend, Scotland needlessly kicked the ball away early and Ireland scored off it.
Both are breathtaking when confident, fluid and clinical, both are venerable when unfocused, static and sloppy.
This game will not be decided by tactics, but decision making and execution of skills.
Prediction
It is hard to call, as Scotland are the better team and have so much positivity around them, while France are a total mess. The flip side is that France still have some outstanding and powerful players, and with Scotland lacking form away from Murrayfield and their inability to manage and control a game for 80 minutes opens the door for the home side.
I'm backing Scotland here to see it through over 80 minutes to continue their solid development, but don't be surprise if France lead at stages in this one, but they have a habit of throwing away leads.
Bets: Scotland to win 6/4. Double Result - France/Scotland at 7/2
Italy v Ireland
Kick Off: Sunday February 24, 1500 GMT,
Venue: Stadio Olimpico
TV: ITV 1
Summary
Ireland demonstrated their World Class status by delivering a performance and a victory over Scotland when under huge pressure, and also when not playing at their best.
Italy can feel they have progressed and taken positives from their defeats to Scotland and Wales, but equally know both games continued to highlight why they are losing and how far away they are from fixing their problems.
Defeat to Wales set an unwelcome record of 19 straight Six Nations defeats for the Azzurri and the heartbreaking fact is the number will have another two at least added to it, if not many more.
Tactical Talk
A key element of Ireland's rise to second in the world rankings has been the preparation Joe Schmidt instills in his side. A prepared Ireland are so difficult to beat, as New Zealand found out in November, and the bad news for Italy is that the men in green have had two weeks to focus on this game.
Ireland will make plenty of changes, but will have used this break to drill their chosen XV into shape, so don't expect them to be rusty or lack cohesion.
Schmidt will still want his fringe players to play in the same style and mould of his best XV, but after keeping it tight against Scotland, expect a move open Irish performance and plenty of ball for the wingers.
Italy's best chance is to kick the ball long and force Ireland to play from deep in their own half and draw them into an arm wrestle. Italy played in the wrong positions against Wales and were made to pay, so hopefully they've learnt lessons for this one.
Prediction
Ireland fielded a 'weaker' XV against Italy in a November Test match in the USA and ran out 54-7 winners. Expect a similar team and a similar result for this one.
They've scored over 50 points in their last four Italian encounters, winning all by margins of over 30 points, including scoring 63 in their last trip to Rome in 2017.
Bets: Winning Margin: Ireland 31+ at 8/11. Ireland 36+ at 6/5
Odds correct as of 11300 GMT on 18/02/19.