Rugby union expert Tony Calvin is sticking with Wales ahead of Saturday's crunch Six Nations showdown with England, while he's also playing the hosts as France welcome Scotland.
Recommended bets
2pts France (-6) to beat Scotland at evens
3pts Wales (+5) to beat England at evens
I don’t often get embarrassed but it took barely a minute into the England-France match at Twickenham a fortnight ago for all the old chubby cheeks to start to redden, and it was full-on purple and fury mode by half-time.
You would have thought I’d have got used to backing losers after all these years, but I absolutely detest giving out appalling betting advice – and I would genuinely rather tip a winner than back one - and recommending France +14 that afternoon was just about as bad as it gets from a professional pride point of view.
The visitors were unbelievably bad, and disinterested from the start, in a 44-8 loss. I don’t think England played especially well, either, so the last thing that I expected to be recommending this week was for France to successfully concede a six-point start to Scotland in Paris.
But that is precisely where my money is going.
Round Three Fixtures
(Click on each fixture for the latest team news)
- France v Scotland, (Sat Feb 23, 1415 GMT, BBC 1)
- Wales v England, (Sat Feb 23, 1645 GMT, BBC 1 & S4C)
- Italy v Ireland, (Sun Feb 24, 1500 GMT, ITV1)
Click for Six Nations schedule, TV guide, results, table & history
That would seem a rather big leap of faith considering that England debacle, and the fact that France have lost their last 120 minutes of Six Nations rugby 68-11, following on from going in 16-0 up against Wales at half-time.
That is some level of capitulation, even by the standards of a second-tier rugby nation, though I suppose that is where France reside these days, given their recent results. They have won only eight of their last 32 internationals dating back to 2016, and just one of their last nine matches since beating England 22-16 in Paris last March.
But France are a far better side than that woeful run of results would suggest, and the tide will turn soon. Certainly their record against Scotland in Paris should give them plenty of encouragement.
Since losing to them in the capital in 1999, France are 10 from 10 against the Scots at home, though granted the visitors have kept them honest of late, with the winning margin in matches since 2013 reading 7, 7, 3 and 6.
That, of course, doesn’t immediately fill one with hope that the weekend handicap line is bridgeable, especially taking into account their recent travails, but the team news is very much in their favour.
And a look at France’s recent record at home, that Fiji November defeat and Japan draw aside, suggests the performances have been there, if not the score lines.
They somehow contrived to lose their tournament opener 24-19 to Wales, and it is worth remembering that, since 2017, they have lost only by a point to South Africa, two to Ireland in that match, and again by just three to the Springboks in November.
In that period, they have also seen off England, Wales, Scotland and Argentina, so it is not all doom and gloom on their own turf.
Morgan Parra and Camille Lopez were always going to carry a fair bit of the can for that Twickenham trouncing, with the scrum-half looking a shadow of his former self, perhaps not surprising given that he found himself fielding the high ball so often. He was literally knocked right off his game, and the half-backs have been jettisoned from the squad.
Parra’s replacement Antoine Dupont looked strong and threatening when he came on against England, and maybe he and fellow youngster Romain Ntmack can ignite a back-line which has a more orthodox feel to it than a fortnight ago - yes, I know I said I liked the look of the starting XV at Twickenham - with Gael Fickou and Yoann Huget switching to their more familiar club positions.
Hopefully, the Toulouse combinations can click for their country, with Thomas Ramos coming in at full-back, too.
Equally, the back three don’t want to allow Scotland to be able to kick into an empty 22 this weekend. It really was a staggering sight to such vast expanses of space in behind the French lines at Twickenham.
France may as well have had Gerard Depardieu sweeping and hopefully they has been working on this area this week, given they named their side on Tuesday, two days before anyone else.
The French have, surprisingly, stayed loyal to the front five who started against England, and hopefully the eight can do a job their size suggests they should to be able to achieve against the Scots, namely supply set-piece ball.
Camille Chat looked a real handful when coming on for Racing 92 at home to Toulouse at the weekend, and he will cause waves when he comes on for Guilhem Guirado at hooker, so he initially interested me for a speculative last try-scorer punt at 25/1.
He hasn’t scored in three starts for France (16 appearances in total) and isn’t prolific for his club – he hasn’t dotted down since October (against Pau), and has scored just twice this season – but he often plays second fiddle to Dimitri Szarzewski at Racing.
He will be very prominent in the final quarter, just as he was against Toulouse on Sunday, but the issue is when he comes on. Guirado came off on 58 minutes against Wales and is always subbed, so while he has lasted 70 minutes and more in some recent games in this tournament, I can’t recommend a bet and will stick to France -6 as my sole wager.
Scotland were unconvincing against Italy in their opener but they were a bit unlucky not to push Ireland closer in Murrayfield last time, though their lack of accuracy was again their undoing against the below-par visitors.
Their injury list has now reached A&E levels on a Saturday night, with Finn Russell joining fellow main man and attacking threat Stuart Hogg on the sidelines, as well as other key men such as Huw Jones, WP Nel, Ryan Wilson and Hamish Watson.
Losing Russell with concussion really has limited their attacking options, and Peter Horne has big boots to fill at 10.
Say it quietly after a 44-8 loss, but one of my major concerns is in fact French complacency given the much-weakened opposition.
They are perhaps the only side in world rugby that could be over-confident after a 36-point defeat, so that is a worry, as ridiculous as it sounds, and my staking plan has been adjusted accordingly.
The second game up on Saturday is Wales v England and, in truth, I have already got enough riding on the match without any further interest. However, I have to get involved at the prices with Wales a bet with a five-point start.
My 5/6 about no Grand Slam winner pretty much rests on England not winning here, while the 6/1 about a Welsh Triple Crown starts on Saturday.
On the face of it, neither position looks overly clever now, with Wales edging towards a frankly huge 9/4 for the win on Betfair, and available at evens with a five-point start with Sky Bet and Betway.
The form lines from this tournament so far certainly suggest that’s a fair assessment, though England will be ruing the absence of Mako Vunipola and Maro Itoje, two of the best workhorses in their pack. They have a settled side though, and a strong bench, where Bath winger Joe Cokanasiga gives them a bit of X-factor (horrible phrase, but I have written it now).
Wales were clearly fortunate to come away with a win in Paris and were unimpressive in Rome, while England’s intensity shocked the Irish in Dublin before they sat back and let the leisurely French self-destruct at Twickenham.
But it is not just my pre-tournament positions that lead me to believe England have a game and a half on their hands at the Principality Stadium.
No one would argue that Wales have been anywhere near their best in this tournament so far – they dodged more bullets in Paris than Samuel L. Jackson did in that hotel room in Pulp Fiction – but there was a touch of irrelevance about their subdued win against Italy given the 10 changes they made for that match.
Actually, the side they put out there was bordering on the insulting, but it could have served a crucial purpose in that they clearly haven’t shown their attacking hand in this tournament.
Whether that is by accident or design is debatable – they were downright poor against France – but the England management don’t have much recent worthwhile footage of Wales to analyse so far, while Warren Gatland and his coaching team have plenty to get stuck into in a bid to try and derail this England juggernaut.
Perhaps they simply don’t have the strength of personnel to execute any cunning plan, but the big boys all return, they are at home for the first time in the tournament, and this Wales side come into this game on a run of 11 straight wins. As for their home form, they have not lost in Cardiff since a 33-18 reverse at the hands of the All Blacks in 2017.
They certainly haven’t always been impressive in that winning run, and the fact remains that they have lost six of their last seven games against England, including two at the Principality (both by a 21-16 scoreline).
But they were unfortunate to go down 12-6 at Twickenham last season, and their selected weekend XV, on home soil, don’t deserve to be five-point underdogs. I'll be taking a bit of that 9/4 on the exchange, too, but the best bet is evens with the start.
Perhaps there is a bit too much of the old recency bias in the prices, though I accept the lack of a goal-kicking back-up if Gareth Anscombe misfires again concerns me - on that score, at least Dan Biggar is on the bench after his injury scare last weekend.
If England in Cardiff doesn’t rouse them from their Six Nations slumbers then nothing will. A repeat of their 30-3 win in Cardiff in 2013 will be perfectly acceptable.
Finally, the 'back Italy on the half-time handicap' fan club is growing by the game but even its fully paid-up members could be forgiven for treading cautiously ahead of Sunday's clash with Ireland in Rome.
I wouldn’t be too worried about the fact that Italy are without their long-time talisman Sergio Parisse – his absence would have been a definite handicap-changer in days gone by, alas time is catching up quickly with one of the great players in the modern era – but I would be concerned about what Ireland have done to them early on in recent Six Nations matches.
Ireland have stuck 231 points on Italy in their last four meetings, conceding 51, and the only one of those to have taken place in Rome was actually their biggest win, a 63-10 thumping in 2017.
Ireland went in 28-0 up in Dublin last year, 28-10 in 2017 and 22-3 in 2016. Mind you, Italy only went in trailing 14-7 at the interval in Chicago in November, prior to losing the second-half 40-0.
Ireland are beginning to welcome back important members to the squad now, and they will look to kick on after their defeat of Scotland at Murrayfield.
Both sides played well below their best that day, and Ireland were under the pump before Conor Murray’s fortuitous try. They will have to be far more accurate and clinical to put a big number on Italy.
The hosts have rewarded their handicap backers in both games (quite how they did against Scotland remains a bit of a mystery, and they needed an injury-time intervention from the TMO to seal the deal against the Welsh) though you do fear for them here if Ireland get rumbling early.
Ireland are a very different beast from the side that lost 22-15 in Rome in 2013 and scraped home 13-11 in 2011, but this is a tricky match to call – the Irish are 29-point favourites, by the way - made even more so by the fact that the teams still haven’t been announced at the time of writing.
I may be back when they are finally announced on Friday afternoon but for now there's no bet.
Posted at 1115 GMT on 22/02/19.