Six Nations: Half term report and what to expect next
We all came into the 2019 edition of the Six Nations excited to witness one of the most open and intriguing contests in decades.
After two rounds it has certainly not let us down with incredible drama and some fantastic rugby on display. It has also delivered some telling story lines and key tactical insights that will shape not just the outcome of this competition but the World Cup in Japan this autumn.
As we take a half term week break, I've been marking each nations' report cards.
England
Grade: A
Well done: Tactical planning and execution
To work on: Keeping their big ball carriers fit
The competition's star student so far. That's thanks to two excellent performances, which are a world away from the lacklustre displays we witnessed 12 months ago. These results and performances have not just restored belief that England are a world class force again, but also restored faith that Eddie Jones was the right man to put at the helm after the humiliating 2015 World Cup failure.
It is Jones' tactical acumen and high intensity game plan that has stood out.
Against France England repeatedly kicked the ball low down the wings. At first it looked wasteful, but as Jonny May raced onto the first of his three tries, you realised it was all down to research.
England spent the rest of the day repeating the same tactic, as they understood how high Le Bleu defended. Jones had also worked out their laborious wingers and centres were slow to turn and chase back and quite frankly don't like doing that ugly side of the job, meaning England's paceman were always going to get to the ball first. Finally he knew that back three lacked the experience and confidence to deal with such constant pressure at Twickenham. It worked again and again, with four tries coming from this method.
The week before Jones got it right again. He realised he needed to keep Ireland guessing and his varied game plan and surprising moments to get the ball wide stunned Ireland. Add in an imperious kicking game and high intense defence and we witnessed almost the perfect game.
I do think Jones has got slightly lucky here. I'm convinced his plan was to pair the bulldozers of Manu Tuilagi and Ben Te'o together in the centres. However the latter's latest injury setback meant Henry Slade kept his place at outside centre.
This automatically meant England became less predictable to defend against. Tuilagi and Te'o are smashers, that's what they do and you know what is coming. With Slade in the backs it means England automatically have more options with handling and kicking and it means opponents cannot set themselves as quickly in defence when they know they are facing three different attacking options rather than one.
One more quick note. For all their variety and their tries out wide, England are benefiting from finally having all of their big ball carriers back and firing at once. Finally we've had the Vunipola brothers, Tuilagi and Maro Itoje all in the same side and it is no surprise England look a totally different side with more 'go forward'.
Their issue is keeping them all fit now. Prop Mako Vunipola has already been ruled out of the rest of the tournament, while Itoje missed the French game.
Jones' intensity in both game plan and training methods brings such success, but also creates plenty of victims.
England will be favourites to win in Wales next and if they do then the Six Nations and a Grand Slam title is their's.
Six Nations Winner - Sky Bet Odds
England - 1/4
Wales - 5/1
Ireland - 10/1
Scotland - 40/1
France - 500/1
Italy - 2000/1
Wales
Grade: C
Well done: Winning when playing poorly
To work on: Peaking and nailing down a game plan
Wales are two from two and have England and Ireland still to come at home. They will never have a better chance of winning a Six Nations and spring boarding themselves into a World Cup campaign. So a 'C' appears to be harsh marking from a strict teacher.
However, the difference between Wales and England so far is that Wales have beaten the weakest two teams in the competition and been poor in both games.
Playing badly and winning is the side of a great side we are constantly told and if Wales win this tournament then that will be true. However France lost that opening game, Wales didn't win it, and Italy are Italy.
I tipped Wales to win the Six Nations as I believed that they have yet to peak. Yes they are on their best winning run since 1910, but even in their victory over a quality but tired South Africa I didn't feel we saw either the very best of Wales or a full 80 minutes performance.
So is Warren Gatland still holding the reigns and saving his team to hit top gear from now, starting with England, or will it turn out this is actually the best level Wales can get too? We will find out against the Red Rose in Cardiff next.
Wales have everything - a mouthwatering back row and a back three to match any other nation in the world. A strong scrum and line out; big ball carriers; creative centres; and a great blend of fly halves that can deliver either running or kicking rugby dependent on what the game requires.
But what they don't seem to still have yet is a clear game plan. What do Wales stand for? What is their overall style? You feel Gatland is still working that out - not helping himself by making too many changes for games against lesser nations.
The next three games - England and Ireland at home, with Scotland away sandwiched between will finally answer the above questions one way or another. They could win all three, lose all three or endure a mixture of results, it really is impossible to call. It means this is a defining period in Welsh rugby and the legacy Warren Gatland will leave behind.
Ireland
Grade: B
Well done: Bouncing back to winning ways when under huge pressure
To work on: Finding performance levels as high as 2018
It might seem strange to give a 'B' to Ireland when they've already lost a home game and have yet again failed to cure their long standing issue of starting tournaments slowly. However there is no shame in losing to England. Play that game 10 times and it would finish five victories apiece.
They've impressed me with the way they ground out the needed victory at Murrayfield against a fired up Scotland. Everything was in place for an upset - Ireland on the back of a loss and questions being asked; Scotland's excellent home form; injuries going into the game and then losing World Player of the Year Jonathan Sexton after 20 minutes.
Yet Ireland came through. Great sides don't lose successive games, and Saturday's win proved once and for all Joe Schmidt's men make a great side.
It wasn't stunning, or even pretty, but Ireland just found a way to win. They went back to basics and kept it tight, keeping belief that their superior game plan, strength, skills and experience would win through and it did.
Ireland demonstrated how clever they are. They knew Scotland wanted an open flowing game, so they kept it tight. Most the time you could throw a net around the Irish players when they had the ball. Look at Jacob Stockdale's try. Clever lines of running and great hands fooled the Scotland defence, but it was all played within a metre of the breakdown in the middle of the park.
The Irish proved at Murrayfield they have everything in their locker to solve any puzzle, even when their cleverest players are missing.
The challenge now is picking the right team against Italy and France that protects their stars but keeps momentum going for their final game in Cardiff, which could still be a title decider.
Scotland
Grade: C
Well done: Creativity
To work on: Game management
Scotland's Six Nations so far can be summed up with the feared phrase every school child comes up against at some point - "good, but could do better".
They did a professional job against Italy, where patent and controlled the game well, until the final quarter. They showed the creativity and running rugby we love to see from the Scots. But it was the Ireland defeat that truly reflected where they are in the current world standings.
The Scots saw this as a chance to step to the next level and move from mid-table fillers to genuine title contenders. For all their vast improvement over the last few years, Saturday demonstrated how far off they remain from the world's elite and the work still needed.
Maybe we judge Scotland too harshly. When it comes to revenue, player pool and number of professional teams they rank fifth of the six nations. But it is the Scots themselves that judge themselves harshly and know that despite those limitations they can achieve more.
Their challenge now is the most difficult one, developing individual and team composure to execute the perfect game plan in the depths of hell of a Test match.
It has taken Wales and Ireland the last five years to complete that final stage, after years of frustrating losses to the biggest nations. They have those abilities now and Scotland can gain them in time.
Saturday proved what was lacking, for all the genius of Finn Russell, the fly half failed to play the game in the right areas and didn't use his kicking game to force Ireland to play deep in their own half.
Ireland's opening try was a classic example of not looking at the bigger picture. Ireland are under pressure and started nervously. If you keep them out, deny them possession and slowly put points on the board yourself, they will crack. But what do Scotland do? gift possession away.
Ireland cough up the ball on half way, Stuart Hogg picks it up and instead of keeping the ball tries a chip kick that was never on. Ireland collect it and with the game now stretched and Scotland now disorganised due to Hogg's random play, Ireland run in under the posts moments later.
Now the Irish have their tails and confidence up and the game was over from there.
Scotland have so much talent and developing this mental side of the game is the final stage of the process. It should come with time, but their will be more pain on the way.
They go to France next and, despite their poor away record, should be expecting to win. This is the next stage, the next step in the development. The loss to Ireland at home still witnessed progress, losing to France away would be a backward step.
France
Grade: F
Well done: Nothing
To work on: Everything - from the bottom up, France need to overhaul their entire rugby system.
Ahead of their game at Twickenham former England scrum half Austin Healy called France rubbish. It seemed harsh when you first heard it, but when you really look into it, they are indeed rubbish.
It is like when a scandal breaks in government or from a respected organisation. At first you don't believe it, but as more facts come out it makes more and more sense and you scold yourself for not realising the signs were in front of your face all the time.
For years we've fooled ourselves thinking France were going through a little transition, they just needed to find the right coach and combination of players to be the world force we know they can be. We were blinded by the glamour of the Top 14, boosting the biggest names in the game; we were fooled by their Champions Cup domination, and we remembered too fondly their sparkling form of the early Six Nations in the 2000's and the Five Nations in the 90's.
But when you look at the facts France's fall from grace all makes sense and it is so stereotypically French.
Le Bleu have never appointed a foreign coach, arrogantly thinking they still know best. Their coaching methods, lack of focus on finessing skills and game management; and their absence of detailed research into opponents leaves them well behind the rest of the world.
Every other Six Nations side have appointed foreign coaches, typically from the Southern hemisphere and all have improved. France have not.
While England, Ireland, Scotland, Wales and Italy are playing with iPhones, France are still using Nokia 6230i.
Players do not take fitness and diet seriously, they mock game plans and believe too much that their - inexistent - superior skills will be enough to see them through.
Look at the Wales loss. Having lost a 16-0 lead, they got a late penalty to lead again with 10 minutes left. In wet, cold conditions a poor Wales side couldn't get the ball back and looked unlikely to make something magical happen in the dying minutes. France just needed to stick the ball up their jumper and grind out the win.
Instead, the second row Sebastien Vahaamahina decided on halfway to throw a 30 metre pass out wide to his winger. This pass was never on even if a talented centre in dry, sunny conditions threw it, let along a lumbering lock in artic, sodden weather.
The arrogance ran rule over planning, Vahaamahina threw the pass, George North intercepted it, France were defeated and then humiliated at Twickenham a week later in a game were they showed nothing.
Scotland are a vastly better side than France now, and they should win in Paris in a week's time. If they do, then France could finish bottom of the Six Nations.
Italy
Grade so far: D
Well done: Improved performances over longer periods in games.
To work on: Execution of basic individual skills and team moves.
Italy are the school child that you are desperate to see succeed but know ultimately that they have too many hurdles to overcome to truly blossom, but that doesn't mean you'll give up on them.
Maybe that's why I'm being generous in give a 'D' to a nation that's just lost a record 19th Six Nations game. But I'm looking at the bigger picture. With Scotland away rather than at home this year, it meant it was always unlikely the Italians would celebrate a win in 2019.
That is why coach Conor O'Shea refused to publicly set targets when it came to wins, points or league standings. Instead he wanted his side to focus on making small gains. Being in matches for longer; keeping possession for longer periods; winning more of their own set pieces; and gaining more turnovers. All measurable targets where confidence can be gained through slow improvements.
And we have seen this in their opening two matches, without ever feeling they'd beat either Scotland or Wales. They scored three tries in the final quarter at Murrayfield and scored the final try in their defeat to Wales in Rome. They kept the score lines respectable in both for longer periods.
Ultimately this isn't enough to keep the wolves from the door and more questions being asked about their future in this contest. They need wins soon, but that will only come from small gains. Ultimately it might be the next generation that finally bring glory back to the Azzurri.
What is infuriating and inexcusable is the Italian players' lack of execution of the basic skills, especially in controlled situations.
It is one thing to miss a tackle on Manu Tuilagi after he's smashed you for 75 minutes, you can understand that. But it is another to fail to perform basic skills like missing simple kicks at goal; over throwing a line out; dropping a catch with no opponents around you - all things Italy do in every game.
If they fixed these simple things up you'd be amazed at the improvement it would bring.
In Rome on Saturday evening Italy won a penalty on half time. It was just to the left of the posts and you and I could have slotted it to make it 12-10 to Wales at the break. However, fly half Tommasso Allan missed it! He does it so often. It means Wales are off the hook and Italy go into the changing rooms with their heads down.
Two minutes into the second period Allan lands a similar kick to finally make is 12-10, however had the previous kick gone over then Italy would now be leading 13-12. This changes everything. Now a much changed, underperforming Wales are losing, they are the ones under pressure, chasing the game and have to force the play to make something happen. Italy are in control. The whole mentality changes.
However because of that simple missed kick, it's the Italians that are still behind and facing all those challenges rather than their opponents. It is the same story again and again and must drive O'Shea mad - Italy are their own worst enemy.
There is a slight light here. France will come to Rome on the final weekend with a maximum of one victory to their name, but equally could have lost their previous four, which means they will be in crisis again with plenty of in-fighting. The French still have the better individuals, which could be enough to win this one, but Italy are a more cohesive team with better structures. O'Shea should be putting all his focus into this game as it is a real possibility of recording a rare win.
I wouldn't put my house on an Italy win over France, but I'd certainly put a little down on it happening.