Six Nations betting preview and tips from Tony Calvin

Recommended bets

1pt draw in Ireland v Wales at 22/1

2pts Scotland +8 on handicap at evens

1pt draw in Scotland v England at 28/1

1pt Hamish Watson to be Man Of The Match at 22/1

2pts Italy +13 in half-time handicap at 10/11

Short-term thinking on the punting front will inevitably lead to long-standing hardship, and the old recency bias argument comes starkly into play when assessing this weekend’s Six Nations matches.

As will the weather, but more on that shortly.

Now, I was as pleased as anyone to see France beat England 24-17 in Paris, but were they anywhere near as good as every report seemed to claim?

I didn’t watch the game live as I was racing in Dublin and they weren’t showing it on the TVs in Leopardstown – some hurling nonsense got preference in the bar I was in – but all the chat was that the home side were full value for their win.

I know I am a contrarian soul at the best of times – and that is a generous description – but it’s not the game I watched when I belatedly sat down to view it on Tuesday afternoon.

There is little doubt that the French showed a lot more backbone and defensive nous than of late, and they demonstrated flashes of their individual brilliance in attack, notably when scrum-half Antoine Dupont used his vision and gears on the blind-side to set up his captain’s second try to make it 24-0 in the second-half.

They also kicked very well out of hand in the main, and Anthony Bouthier at full-back has a fair lash on him.

They may even have kept England scoreless in the final quarter had Nigel Owens and his TMO bothered to investigate the reason for the all-in fracas after that try, as Luke Cowan-Dickie should have been given a yellow card for a late, and what looked a very cheap and pretty hefty, flop on Charles Ollivon.

You also have to view the match in the context of the wet weather. It didn’t look too bad on TV until you saw the rain pelting down on the running track, so you have to forgive the high error-count a touch.

But while France were rightly joyous at the end, I think it is fair to say they got lucky to a fair degree, and not simply because England were pretty woeful throughout, with Johnny May’s jet-propelled brace the exception.

Though, of course, France have to take a fair bit of credit for the favourites under-performing so badly. They were nuggety in true Sean Edwards style, and fairly disciplined, too.

I am particularly worried for the French set-piece going forward, though.

For a side with so many targets, their line-out was unconvincing – though England lost ball here, too, in the rain – and their scrum was second-best throughout (no matter what the BBC pundits said at half-time), and badly so when the subs came on.

And how Ollivon’s first try was given is beyond me. I didn’t think there was any doubt at all that he knocked it on.

Obviously, it is all not all doom and gloom, far from it, and I dare say we will get a far more adventurous performance in better weather (unless Storm Ciara swings south, and rain is forecast in Paris this weekend, too, so keep an eye out there), and it helps if you are playing Italy at home.

And an Italian side just thumped 42-0 in Cardiff, at that.

France may have lost in Rome in 2011 and 2013, but their home winning margins against Italy this century read 11-21-25-25-12-26-18-20-2-17-18. They got very lucky in a 23-21 win in 2016, but the last time they lost this fixture at home was in Grenoble in 1997.

So, looking at those scores, it comes as little surprise to see this weekend’s handicap line set around 25 and 26.

Actually, you could have reasonably expected the handicap to be set a touch higher, initially at least, given last weekend’s result in Paris and Cardiff.

But Italy were nowhere near as bad as their 42-0 score line suggests and their scrum, which got the better of Wales', could give the home side some trouble here. They even looked dangerous on occasions in the three-quarter line, and didn’t get much help from the referee in the first-half.

My gut instinct is to side against France in some shape or form in Sunday’s game, notwithstanding the fact I want, and expect, them to get a winning bonus point for my long-term positions.

I held on for the team news for as long as I could, but hopefully there won’t be that many shocks in the line-ups, if any, when they are finally announced.

Having seen my first-half handicap on bet on Italy +12 in Cardiff fail miserably, I am going to give them another spin on the same line, this time at a generally available +13, albeit to small stakes on what I found was another incredibly tricky round of games to call.

If it is wet, then the bet becomes ever more attractive, as do Italy with a 26-point start.

Hard to split Dublin duo

On to Saturday’s matches then, and three will become two – and maybe even one if it is a draw – in terms of potential Grand Slam winners as Ireland host Wales in the weekend opener in Dublin.

Once again, the market could have over-reacted a touch more than it has done to last weekend’s games, with Ireland 4/6 favourites (though they are bigger on Betfair) and asked to give away four points on the handicap.

Unfortunately, that seems a fair enough assessment, especially as I am not going overboard about Wales at the moment.

Keeping any side scoreless in a game of rugby union is a feat – though, of course, Italy could have easily taken three points on at least a couple of occasions at 21-0 – and Wales did all that was asked of them there, even if they left it until the 76th-minute to secure the bonus point.

They still looked a side on a learning curve with their attacking game, understandably so given the attempted switch in emphasis by the new management team, but you can’t argue with a "0" and they looked a very solid outfit, as per usual, with a bit of stardust thrown in by the likes of Dan Biggar and Josh Adams.

They wouldn’t have been happy with the way their scrum went but, then again, the Ireland eight got taken to the cleaners in the tight on a few occasions by Scotland, too.

Ireland were fortunate to come away with a 19-12 victory against the Scots, and it had definite shades of the France-England match, in which their defence in their own 22 won them the game, rather than any all-round excellence or attacking zest.

Scotland may just have been a lot better than certain people gave them credit for, though – having backed and tipped Ireland -13, I was at the front of that particularly costly queue – and of course Stuart Hogg dropping the ball over the try-line at 13-6 was a real killer.

It wasn’t exactly the difference between a draw or a loss though, given it would have been a difficult conversion and they kicked three points anyway, as they had a penalty advantage, but it kind of summed up Scotland’s game.

The better side for the majority of the match, but simply failing to convert territorial dominance when it was easier to score.

Ireland will have to up their game considerably but it has to be said they have not been the best starters in this tournament of late. Their recent record against Wales has been very mixed, too.

Ireland may have won both of their World Cup warm-ups in the summer, but they lost 25-7 in the Millennium last March and their Dublin performances of late have been pretty poor.

They lost at home in 2012 and 2015, drew 16-16 in 2016, and their 37-27 winning scoreline in 2018 could have been a defeat.

Trust me, as someone who tipped Wales +10, I remember Jacob Stockdale’s try-scoring interception in the last play of the game – with the score at 30-27 and Wales going wide on a two-on-two - all too well.

Bad Beat City.

This is a tough game to call for someone who wasn’t sold on Wales’ win last week, especially as the changes both sides have made, forced or not, clearly don’t weaken their chances.

In fact, Wales look a more balanced unit with Nick Tompkins coming in at centre and George North returning to the wing.

I went through all the markets and I honestly couldn’t see a standout bet, though the draw at 22/1 is very fair and I would side with Wales with the start if pushed, given the weather forecast .

In fact, I will put up a minimum bet on the draw at 22s (bet365 and Betway). A repeat of 2016 would be nice.

Jones right to ring the changes

I was very much looking forward to Eddie Jones staying loyal to his starting Paris XV, and confidently tipping Scotland +9 in Edinburgh (though that handicap was reduced to eight on Thursday morning), and then the old wind-up merchant goes and makes pretty much all the changes I would have.

He has brought in five new starting faces, and they all make complete sense.

Mako Vunipola coming in at prop will help with the ball-carrying element so badly missing against France, main line-out caller George Kruis is back to get a better tune, and Lewis Ludlam adds yet more dynamism and pace to the back-row - though he will need to calm himself down a bit, as he is a bit too mouthy.

Ben Youngs was never likely to survive yet another modest showing (his missed tackle for the first try probably sealed his fate, there and then) and Manu Tuilagi’s injury sees Jonathan Joseph return to the side.

Someone pointed out on Twitter that the George Ford-Owen Farrell-Joseph midfield was the one that started in England’s 25-13 defeat at Murrayfield in 2018, and then someone raised him all-in when stating that the trio have won 15 of their previous 16 starts together!

England basically look a far stronger side (on paper) than the one that lost last week – though Tom Curry at eight is surely not the long-term answer in that position – and that is disappointing for someone who was very keen to get with Scotland.

Granted, England dominated this fixture up until that loss two years ago, and that amazing 38-38 Twickenham draw last March.

But I was quite impressed by Scotland last week, for all that their old lack of a clinical, attacking edge was there for all to see. They looked a pretty physical outfit, which they will need to be against this English pack - especially as Jones has stuck six forwards on the bench, too.

I know I am like a stuck record – one for the 50-somethings there - but Hamish Watson was the best player on the park by a long way last Saturday, and the TV pundits choosing the man-of-the-match really do need to stop focusing solely on the winning teams (they went with CJ Stander in the Ireland game).

What I thought was a straightforward handicap tip on Wednesday afternoon, having watched all the weekend games again, is now anything but given Jones’ changes.

However, the weather forecast suggests Murrayfield could get very wet by kick-off, so I have to stay true to my original thoughts and side with Scotland +8 at evens (Betfair and Paddy Power), but simply scale back the stake.

Remember, England have now lost five of their last seven away games in this tournament and the draw is a definite runner at 28/1 (Betway and Boylesports) too.

I wouldn’t be laying that, so I am backing it, with 25/1 perfectly respectable if the 28s goes quickly. The draw at half-time markets in all the games could also be worth checking out.

And in the hope that whoever chooses the MOM on BBC is capable of actually opening their eyes to the merits of all the players, and not those just from the winning side, Watson is worth a minimum tickle at 22/1 (Betfair and Paddy Power) to be the best player on the field.

It could be a forward-orientated game if bad weather sets in, so Watson could be in his element, and hopefully highly conspicuous, at the breakdown.

Posted at 1255 GMT on 07/02/20

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

Sky Bet's responsible gambling tools are detailed here and if you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.