Six Nations betting tips: France v Scotland, Friday March 26
3pts Scotland to score over 1.5 tries at 4/7 (Paddy Power)
2pts Scotland (+16) to beat France on the handicap at evens (Sky Bet, bet365)
1pt Stuart Hogg anytime try-scorer at 7/2 (Unibet, Betfred)
France v Scotland
- When: 2000 GMT, Friday March 26
- Where: Stade de France
- Referee: Wayne Barnes
- TV: BBC
After staging a remarkable comeback against Wales in Paris last Saturday, France return to the Stade de France looking to defy the short six-day turnaround and raise themselves once again in the hope of delivering a first Six Nations title since 2010.
That Les Bleus are still in with a chance is not only down to Brice Dulin’s match-winning try with the last play of the game but also the controversial decision by the Six Nations committee to postpone rather than cancel this fixture against Scotland.
France really could have had no complaints had Scotland been given the win following an outbreak of coronavirus in their camp but it would have deprived us of another game of high-stakes rugby.
For France, a try bonus-point win by a margin of 21 points would do the job and provide tangible evidence of the progress they’ve made under Fabian Galthie leading into their home Rugby World Cup in 2023. It would be a historic win if they did pull it off though, as Les Bleus have only achieved that victory margin once in their last 17 matches with Scotland, a 32-3 win in a Rugby World Cup 2019 warm-up match in Nice.
Chasing a big win is these circumstances is not an easy task, as England found out in 2015 when they put 55 points on France in a 90-point thriller only to fall just short of the margin required to be crowned champions. Striking the right balance can be hard and, tactically, France need to be right on it from the off.
Encouragingly, for punters who backed France pre-tournament at 5/2, they have scored more points in the first half of matches (58%) than the second. But building on such a platform and opening up a big enough points buffer will take some doing against a Scottish side that has only conceded eight points in the last quarter in the whole Championship.
Fitness and lasting the distance will not be an in issue for the visitors who are more than capable of winning with a 16-POINT HANDICAP start. It’s worth remembering that Scotland were the only team to beat France in last year’s Six Nations, and while we can’t see that happening in Paris for the first time in over two decades, they’re not two-and-a-bit scores worse than their hosts.
Rather than just holding in there, Scotland will want to play their part in what could be a classic encounter. In days gone by, they’d have been more than happy to play the role of spoilers but Gregor Townsend teams play with much more ambition and the points should come freely at either end, despite the teams with the best defences in the Championship being on display, which makes us believe the total match points will be higher than 52.5 (5/6). A side containing two of the most skilful operators in world rugby in Finn Russell and STUART HOGG should also be good to score AT LEAST TWO TRIES which looks banker material at 4/7.
HOGG has a couple of tries himself in this year’s Championship and, having reverted back to full-back from his temporary stint at fly-half, the Melrose man will relish the space created by an open game. Opportunities to add to his tally of four tries in 12 appearances against France should be forthcoming and the 4/1 ‘Power Price’ on offer from Paddy Power looks worth taking if you can, with the standard 7/2 more than fair.
It would be typical of France to put their supporters through the whole gamut of emotions in 80 minutes - like they did last weekend in beating Wales 32-30 - and build a decent score only to shoot themselves in the foot, one way or another. For punters who want to see red, Betway are offering 9/2 on Wayne Barnes dismissing a player. English official Barnes, who extends his Six Nations record of referee appearances to 25, is not adverse to reaching into his pocket. In the last month, he has sent off Peter O’Mahony in round one of the Six Nations and two players in a feisty West Country derby between Bath and Gloucester. Expect fireworks all round!
What France need to do to win the title
Wales are currently top of the table on 20 points, with France in third on 15, so read on to find out the scenarios that need to happen for each of those countries to claim the trophy.
The first job for France is to beat Scotland with a four-try bonus point, as that would see them draw level on competition points with Wales.
Points difference is the next criteria to decide the winner and Wales are on +61 compared to France +41. So a win of 21 points or more over Scotland, should they score four tries, will be enough for Fabien Galthie’s men to be crowned champions.
If, in the unlikely situation, that France secure a bonus-point win and prevail by exactly 20 points, then the winner will be determined by tries scored. Wales have scored 20 tries while France currently have 15, so six more for Les Bleus would do it.
Posted at 0945 GMT on 25/03/21
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