Jon Newcombe produced profit in all four matches covered last weekend, and our expert has a range of fancies for the final round of Rugby World Cup pool matches.
Rugby union betting tips: Sunday October 8
2pts Japan +10 to win on the handicap at 11/8 (BoyleSports)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
On Sunday (1645 BST), Tonga and Romania meet in the deadest of dead rubbers, between the sides with the two worst-performing attacks.
Credit to Tonga for becoming the first team to score three tries against South Africa at a World Cup since Japan in 2015. But with Romania only registering one try – in the third minute of their opening match – and rarely getting anywhere near the opposition 22, we’re inclined to think playing unders as more total points markets emerge will pay off.
More penalties than tries is a market where we’ve come good before in this tournament and the way JAPAN and Argentina (1200 BST) is set up, it could be worth another foray.
In a match that is likely to be closely fought and where winning is all matters, taking shots at goal will be the go-to option for the respective captains. They’d be mad not to, when Nicholas Sanchez has kicked eight from eight for Argentina at this tournament and his opposite number, Rikiya Matsuda has only missed one of his 16 attempts.
On paper, this could be very close and as a team that struggles to put opponents away and under-performs on the handicap, Argentina being asked to give a Japan team starting to rediscover itself a double-digit start may be too much.
After 39 games, the best may be saved until last as Fiji take on the ‘European Fijians’ Portugal in a finale to the pool stages that promises to be full of running rugby (2000 BST). Both teams feature twice in the top five of matches with the highest ball-in-play time so it could be a frenetic affair.
On the face of it, this match screams try-fest, but in reality neither team has been that good at converting attacking opportunities into points so it might be wise not to get carried away in those particular markets.
Australia need Portugal to do them a favour if they are to live to fight another day and if Fiji are as sloppy as they were against Georgia, another shock result is not beyond the realms of possibility. However, we’d recommend playing it safe and going for Portugal on the handicap in a game where emotions will be running high.
Portugal head coach Patrice Lagisquet, the instigator of the brand of rugby that has won the hearts and minds of neutrals, has declared he is leaving his position as head coach at the tournament’s end.
It takes something to rob Fiji of the mantle of everyone’s favourite second team but that’s exactly what Portugal have done. It seems they are loved by everyone except the bookmakers and making them 20-point underdogs seems a tad harsh, but this is a game to watch and enjoy without a bet.
France v Italy
- Friday, 2000 BST
2pts France (-13) on the first-half handicap at 10/11 (General)
1pt Ange Capuozzo last try-scorer at 25/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
France, in their traditional blue jerseys, take on Italy in white in Lyon on Friday night.
Italy might as well use the same kit as they did in the World Cup thrashing handed to them by the All Blacks as they barely got their jerseys dirty; it was as limp a display as you could possibly wish to see. Even tournament whipping boys Romania would have been embarrassed by that performance.
The 96-17 scoreline didn’t flatter New Zealand one bit and, understandably, the bookies reckon France will rack up some big numbers themselves. But maybe not as big as some may think, which is why we’ll sidestep the overall handicap and go for France to cover 13.5 POINTS in the first half. France are fast starters and will want to get the job done as quickly as possible.
Italy have been poor for conceding penalties in their own half at this World Cup. So coming up against a team that points to the poles more than any other, and has a kicker without peer in Thomas Ramos, has us believing France will steadily build the score and be comfortably in front by half-time.
With the result likely to be settled by the 50-minute mark, France will look to give their frontline players as much rest as possible ahead of the quarter-finals. And if there are a raft of changes, this could easily disrupt the host nation’s rhythm and allow the Azzurri to peg back the margin, which has historically averaged out around the 20-point mark when France are at home.
Total points-wise, it could be a night of frustration for overs backers. Both France and Italy thrive on quick ball but in the three matches refereed by Karl Dickson, the average ruck speed is four seconds, which is well below what the teams will be striving for. This could lead to frustration – and penalties. France gave away 18 against the Azzurri in the Six Nations so there is history there, too.
Also, if there is one game that Italy will get up for more than any other, it is one against France and you’d be disappointed if they didn’t put up a much more spirited display in Kieran Crowley’s last match in charge.
Crowley is a popular figure amongst the Azzurri squad – privately they were dumbfounded he was being let go – and the Kiwi deserved better than that battering against his countrymen.
A good performance against Les Bleus would help to repair some of the damage, to his and Italy’s battered reputation, and who better than ANGE CAPUOZZO to help him sign off on a positive note with the game’s final try?
England v Samoa
- Saturday, 1645 BST
2pts Samoa under 15.5 points at evens (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt England (-20) on the handicap at 10/11 (Sky Bet, 888sport)
England’s campaign is now starting to take shape and they should have too much for Samoa on Saturday.
Samoa have scored exactly 22 points the three previous times they have played England at a World Cup but they’ll struggle to get that many in Lille against the Kevin Sinfield rearguard.
England have only conceded one try all tournament, late on against Argentina, and that was after a long passage of play – something that Samoa have struggled to conjure up, especially in the opposition half.
With England giving very few penalties away (a match-average of eight), we don’t rate Samoa’s chances of scoring more than 15 points. SAMOA UNDER 15.5pts is an even-money chance and as England have comfortably beaten all their handicaps so far, despite the negativity around their play, we'll also take them to maintain that record.
Ireland v Scotland
- Saturday, 2000 BST
3pts Ireland (-12) on the handicap at evens (General)
2pts under 45.5 points in Ireland v Scotland at 10/11 (bet365)
1pt Dan Sheehan anytime try-scorer at 15/8 (SpreadEx)
1pt Ireland to win by 16-20 points at 6/1 (Betfred)
You’d need doctoral level maths to understand the quarter-final qualification permutations relating to what may or may not happen in Pool B but one thing is clear, Saturday’s match between Ireland and Scotland is the biggest of any of the 141 previous incarnations of the fixture.
It also seems pretty clear that Ireland will win. Sure, Scotland will a sense of injustice into the match with everyone saying they were being sent home to think again before they’d barely started the tournament. But, let’s be honest, they have been found wanting in more clutch situations than a learner driver performing a hill start.
Beating Ireland is more of a mountain to climb, even though pressure does funny things to sports teams and the men in green will be feeling it against the backdrop of their previous World Cup failures.
Both teams have their big-game players available for this one and when that has been the case in the past, Ireland have proved they are the better team. In this season’s Six Nations clash they could even afford to lose both their hookers and still win with relative ease, 22-7, despite openside Josh van der Flier having to reinvent himself and throw in at the lineout.
As with all other big Test matches where a valid argument can be made for one side or the other to win, which is the case here, it often boils down to which of the two dominates the set-piece battle.
Ireland’s lineout hasn’t been without its flaws this World Cup but it is still the most potent of any team at the World Cup as a source of tries. DAN SHEEHAN, back in the number two jersey for this one, will be ready to sniff out any maul opportunities that come his way. From eight lineouts 10 metres or less from the opposition line, Ireland have converted half of them into tries.
Ireland are also kings of stealing opposition ball which is bad news for a Scotland team that has failed to nail any of its four driving maul opportunities when in ‘the red zone’. If Ireland dominate here, as we expect them to do, Scotland will be forced to roll the dice more than they’d probably like, and when that happens, they are prone to unforced errors. Ireland are too clinical a side not to make them pay.
Finn Russell, Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe can turn a game on its head from nowhere so they’ll always be dangerous, especially when they get the opportunities to go wide. But Ireland are not Tonga and Romania, and space – and possession – will be at a premium. Ireland’s reputation for keeping the ball and playing in the right areas holds true at this RWC with Ireland enjoying the lion's share in both categories and more than any other team in the tournament (59.2% possession and 56.9% territory).
Only twice in the last 20 fixtures between these Celtic cousins has the match aggregate for points scored been over 50, and it is easy to see this being of a similar type. It is probably not over-hyping it to say, at least from a Scotland perspective, that this is the biggest-ever match between the nations, considering they have never played each other beyond the pool stages at a World Cup before nor in a Grand Slam decider, so there will be an element of pragmatism coming into play.
For us, IRELAND will make it a record-equalling nine wins in a row against Scotland, by a margin of 16-20 points, perhaps with a late surge given their propensity for piling the points on in the final quarter, with UNDER 45.5 POINTS scored overall.
Posted at 0920 BST on 06/10/23
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