New Zealand v British & Irish Lions: First Test betting preview and tips from Tony Calvin
Rugby union expert Tony Calvin has a 14/1 bet for the first Test between New Zealand and the British & Irish Lions.
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I start writing this piece on the first Test between New Zealand and the British and Irish Lions - people get upset if you just say “the Lions”, so I am doing my bit there - without a clue what I am going to tip, or certainly with an open mind. It has been that kind of tour, so far.
Namely, one of surprises. Could there be another shock at Eden Park on Saturday morning, for which the tourists are general 7/2 chances and between 10 or 11-point underdogs on the handicap line?
Let’s deal with the Lions first.
I expected them to struggle badly but you can easily argue they should be going into the first Test unbeaten. They have only lost narrowly to the Blues and the Highlanders, and they should probably have won both. They certainly traded massive odds-on in running in those matches.
For all the protestations from the home press about the tourists being staid and lacking in ambition and inventiveness - and they undoubtedly had a point there - I think they will be harbouring a grudging, though serious, respect under that critical exterior when it comes to the Lions’ forwards.
This regard would have first reared its head when they overpowered the Crusaders in a tryless 12-3 win, as the top Super Rugby outfit have done their fair share of bullying themselves this season, as well as adopting a wonderfully incisive and fluid brand of rugby once the opposition has been softened up. They are a power side.
And it would have been cemented when the Saturday squad did a job on the New Zealand Maoris, the so-called 'unofficial fourth Test', last weekend.
The weekend Lions’ dominant scrum and line-out allowed the back row to punch through and look rugged on the ball, and that underpinned the successes. And the Lions have a wealth of options in the front five, which is underlined by Maro Itoje being left on the bench.
I don’t think anyone could argue massively with any of Saturday’s front five - Itoje will have a big role to play off the bench, and perhaps sooner rather than later in such an attritional, and safety-first medically, game these days - and it is here where the game will be won and lost by the Lions.
As Ireland showed in Chicago last year, dominate the set-piece - particularly the line-out - and New Zealand are as vulnerable as any side. When the Springboks regularly gave the Kiwis a fright in the old Tri-Nations, then it was Matfield and Botha who led the way. If the home side get parity at set-piece time, they will win by 20 points.
The line-out is the key to this game, and New Zealand know it. So do the Lions, which is why Warren Gatland had little option but to select Peter O’Mahony, a superb operator up and down the line in this area, at six ahead of tour captain Sam Warburton. More of the bench later.
If the Lions pack is a potential match-winner - and, as we saw in Dublin against Ireland in the autumn re-match, New Zealand are not afraid to adopt 'borderline' tactics if they think they are being bullied, legally, up front - then their three-quarter line screams inadequacy to me.
Well, outside of Conor Murray and Owen Farrell anyway, though the number nine hasn’t got his regular partner beside him and the fly-half, who has been imperious on tour in terms of his snarling attitude, has not been injury-free coming into this match.
I can live with these doubts but, outside of Farrell, I can only see frailty at every turn, even if I imagine Gatland will look to play a strangling 10-man game and he will be just fine and dandy if the outside five don’t get a sniff of the ball.
Ben Te’o has been getting rave reviews for his power and footwork on this tour, but he lacks the subtlety you will need to unlock the All Blacks defence and I’m sure the home midfield, notably Sonny Bill Williams, who has some rugby league history with Te’o, will be more than happy to accommodate any one-up, one-out, play.
His centre partner Jonathan Davies is solid, and I don’t have any major issue with Elliot Daly or the spikey and nuggety (for nuggety, read a right pain-in-the-arse to play against) Liam Williams at 15 - Daly’s siege-gun boot will keep the home side’s defence honest any time the ball is near the halfway line, and that would be the main reason for his selection, I imagine - but Anthony Watson on the wing worries me.
He will have a massive All Black arrow pointing right above his head at all times during the match.
He is a fine, elusive runner given space but expect him to be peppered with high balls, and run over, at every opportunity. And, having watched him a lot for Bath and England this season, I am very surprised by his inclusion. I don’t get it.
And I also don’t get why Warburton is on the bench, or is in the squad. Itoje can cover lock and the blindside flanker positions from there, and if you needed an impact player in the back-row among the substitutes then surely CJ Stander the carrier, or Justin Tipuric the fetcher, would have been better options to have in the match-day 23.
The Lions are a Jekyll-and-Hyde side when it comes to the forwards and backs, and that naturally troubles me.
Not that it is all sweetness and light in the All Black camp - well, we have to nit-pick, don’t we? - not that you would have thought there was any problem whatsoever after they thumped Samoa 78-0 last week after taking a while to fully find their stride. That second-half performance was sublime.
But the fact that Kieran Read, especially, and Ryan Crotty come into this game on the back of injuries is hardly ideal, and the New Zealand coaches will be fully aware that the Lions will have been dissecting the Crusaders v Hurricanes Super Rugby match on May 13.
That day, the Crusaders totally shut down the attacking threat of Kiwi fly-half Beauden Barrett with a mixture of planned cynicism, and supreme execution. And who was the referee that day that allowed them to do so? Why, it was Jaco Peyper, who just happens to be in charge at Eden Park on Saturday.
The Crusaders unwittingly gave the Lions their Test template that day.
The problem is the All Blacks didn’t get to be the best, and most consistently brilliant, side in world sport by ignoring the obvious and naivety, and it they want attacking variations they aren’t lacking. And it would be a mistake to think their forwards are going to get rolled over; the All Blacks eight, even when underpowered, tend to find a way.
I genuinely don’t have an opinion on the generally-available handicap line of 10 and 11, but if the All Blacks score first then the Lions could be in for a torrid time as they are not best equipped to play catch-up rugby, outside of Farrell chipping away with the boot.
The Lions have always been competitive in the first 40 minutes of their tour matches to date, and never leading or losing by much, and the 14/1 available about the sides being level at half time looks generous to me.
In their tour matches at half time, the Lions were 7-6 down in the opener, losing 12-10 to the Blues, drawing 10-10 against the Highlanders, and were 9-3, 12-10 and 13-6 up against the Crusaders, Maoris and the Chiefs respectively. Always a score or less in it.
So you see the pattern. A safety-first grind, a tight defence but little penetration against fresh sides. If they score first and their heads go up, then the Lions could keep this very tight for the first half at least.
The 14/1 about a draw at the interval is very fair.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports
Posted at 1840 BST on 22/06/17.