Rugby league betting tips: Ian Millward's preview

Recommended bets:

3pts Castleford (-10) to beat Salford at evens – flying, particularly in attack, and should outclass Salford

1pt double Gold Coast (+4) & Newcastle (+4) at 3.04/1 – both at home & reasons to oppose their visitors

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Leigh (+8) v Warrington – Thursday, 2000 GMT, Sky Sports 2

Last year Warrington were the most entertaining team in the league but currently they’re only averaging 16 points per game.

One of the reasons for last year’s success was Chris Hill, who returns this week. He gives them greater go-forward and people like Kurt Gidley and Daryl Clark have the ability to play off the back of it.

Warrington have lacked cohesion in attack without him. The players are not on the same page and don’t seem to know what their role is. Everyone needs to work together but, at the moment, they are not.

For me, this week it gets tougher. Leigh have had two wins and will have a partisan crowd behind them. Glenn Stewart, in the back row, returns too and they look an improved team.

I see Leigh, once again, covering here. My only concern is that Clark might cause their forwards some problems – many of them are bigger and struggle effort after effort.

I’m going for Leigh to cover – eight points is a good start at home for them. I’m not saying Warrington won’t win the game but that starts looks nice.

Hull v Widnes (+20) – Friday, 2000 GMT

Hull have a massive edge here in the fact that in the last four years Widnes have only won one game against them - that’s obviously a poor record.

Hull will have Gareth Ellis back this week but Widnes have Patrick Ah Van and Greg Burke as doubts – the latter will be sorely missed in the front row if he doesn’t play.

I was really impressed by Hull against St Helens. Marc Sneyd is in good form and working well with Albert Kelly and with the experience of Ellis coming back in, I can’t see how Widnes can turn the tables here.

The bottom line is Hull showed last year when they won the minor premiership that they are a top-four team. Widnes are averaging 25 points against and with Hull in good form, they’ve only got to back up last week’s effort and they can win and cover.

They have more size, more threat and are at home – all big advantages.

Leeds v Wakefield (+12) – Friday, 2000 GMT, Sky Sports 2

An interesting thing ahead of this game is that Wakefield have won two of their last three against the Rhinos which I never thought would happen.

However, if you look at the teamsheets this week, Leeds’ side is one which has a ring about it with Brett Ferres back, Carl Ablett too. Rob Burrow and Danny McGuire have more game time under their belt and the wingers, Tom Briscoe and Ryan Hall, are playing again too.

It was interesting to see their CEO saying the next four weeks are big and I think we may see a good run from them in this period.

I think Leeds will be too quick for Wakefield. The visitors are a very competitive team but may lack some speed and I’m not sure if they can back up – they’ve had two really tough games against St Helens and Salford that will have taken a lot out of them.

I’m going for Leeds to win and cover at home. I’ve not got a lot of confidence in them but take them on trust with the quality of their team.

Catalans v St Helens (+6) – Saturday, 1700 GMT, Sky Sports 3

I never thought I’d hear St Helens are only averaging 12 points a game – they look so pedestrian.

Catalans have won four of the last five encounters between these two but the loss of Greg Bird, indeed a couple of players, is concerning for the Dragons. They were inconsistent last week after a couple of really good performances at the start of the campaign and they also have a problem scoring points – they are only adding 16 per game.

I have some real issues with them but am going for Catalans. They are in better form and have better attacking options. Their Luke Walsh faces his former club and I’ll be keen to see how he performs.

Catalans have that good head-to-head record and I think home-ground advantage is big here.

Salford (+10) v Castleford – Sunday, 1500 GMT

Cas are my best bet of the weekend for a few reasons.

There hasn’t been much between the teams in the last few years – it’s two wins each from the last four – but at the present time Cas are averaging 43 points per game. They look so fluent.

They have some depth too. Lots of players are pushing for selection, keeping the current players in the team on their toes.

Luke Gale and Zak Hardaker have been great so far and their pack of forwards is very intimidating.

Salford have conceded 20 points a game and while their performances have been strong I believe they have over-achieved.

They had the game all wrapped up last week but let Wakefield back in and they can’t do that against Cas.

The Tigers’ attack is really enterprising and clinical when it comes to scoring points – I take them to win and cover.

Wigan v Huddersfield (+18) – Sunday, 1500 GMT

I said at the start of the season I thought Huddersfield would finish in the bottom four and that’s how it’s looking so far. Wigan have won eight in a row against the Giants, who look up against it here.

Huddersfield have not only been inconsistent in defence but also in attack. I think they recruited poorly and don’t seem to do anything to a consistent level.

If Wigan turn up with the right attitude, they will win. Wigan’s defence has been outstanding and I feel now they are getting some fluency in attack – it’s the second best in Super League at the moment.

I can’t see it being anything but a Wigan win and them covering.

NRL

Gold Coast (+4) v Parramatta – Friday, 0905 GMT, Premier Sports

Parramatta are undefeated after two games and Gold Coast have some injuries but Corey Norman, the Parramatta half-back, is also out injured and that will have a massive effect on them.

I’m keen on Gold Coast with a six-point start. Parramatta are very physical and their last two games will have taken a bit out of them.

Now they face this tricky trip and so I’ll take Gold Coast to cover.

Newcastle (+4) v South Sydney - Saturday, 0530 GMT, Premier Sports

Newcastle won their first game for 336 days last week and now they head back home. I think that will give them a lot of confidence and a lot of belief.

I also think Souths, with Greg Inglis out, were OK last week but not fluent.

Newcastle look good value with the start. Like Gold Coast, they may not be expected to win but can get on a bit of a roll and cover.

Canberra v Wests (+8) – Sunday, 0500 GMT, Premier Sports

Canberra opened the year as one of the contenders but have lost both games so far.

The first week they were outstanding but lost on golden point, then last week they fell a bit flat.

However, captain Jarrod Croker is one of a few players returning and I think they can win and cover.

Posted at 1445 GMT on 16/03/17.