Free Rugby League World Cup betting tips: Ian Millward previews the final round of group games

Fiji v Italy (+24) – Friday, 0840 GMT, Premier Sports

The tournament so far has been more open than I thought it would be. Fiji personify that. They’ve scored 130 points in two games but haven’t been tested yet.

Their outside-backs have been outstanding – they have the speed and ability to create tries.

I think there a couple of really good plays in this game.

Viliame Kikau, in the back row for Fiji, I like him to score a try at any time and 9/4 looks a great bet. He’s a big, strong, damaging back row who likes to score tries. If he gets near the tryline, he looks to take the ball on.

Taane Milne is the other player I like in this market. He’s got a double in both games so far. He is a best price of 10/11 to score one in this game.

Overall, I’d expect this game to be a lot closer than Fiji’s previous two. Italy are sweating on the fitness of Terry Campese – they’ve really played without their half-backs so far. They were better last week and didn’t concede many points.

That said, Fiji are way the better team. With a dry surface expected, they will create plenty of points, especially with Jarryd Hayne in good form.

I’m going for Fiji to cover here but the two players in the anytime tryscorer market offer the best punting opportunity in this game.

New Zealand v Tonga (+8) – Saturday, 0400 GMT, Premier Sports

The general opinion here in Australia is that this is the game Tonga have been building towards and some feel an upset can occur.

Three players in the Tonga team have defected, including Jason Tamaulolo and Manu Ma’u from New Zealand which will add spice to this one.

Tonga have been outstanding in their first two games but they’ve spent a lot of emotion and energy during them. Last week, late in the game, they looked tired.

A wet surface and cold conditions are predicted so I’m edging towards total points being unders.

This might be a real bruising affair with not a lot between the sides.

Two things pull me towards New Zealand though. Shaun Johnson will be the best half on the field – he’s in good form – and overall I think there is just more depth and quality in their forwards.

I’ll take the Kiwis to win and cover in a low-scoring game.

Samoa v Scotland (+36) – Saturday, 0700 GMT, Premier Sports

It’s fair to say, Scotland have been disappointing both on and off the field. They’ve scored just 10 points in the tournament and conceded 124 over just two matches.

They obviously lost some key players through injury and now they’ve got suspensions following last week’s disciplinary incident.

I was quite impressed with Samoa last week when a few things went against them and I think playing a day game this week will help them. They’ve had two night matches so far which has been tough for them and I think they can really open up in this one.

Their outside-backs have performed quite poorly so far but I think they will improve this week.

Scotland have just been a non-event and I’m going for Samoa to win and cover the start. I’d be very surprised if Scotland can get into double figures.

Australia v Lebanon (+46) – Saturday, 0900 GMT, Premier Sports

Australia have rotated their squad perfectly so far and they’ll rest more players in this one. However, those who come in are still really good – it’s been a strong start to their title bid.

Lebanon were very brave last week against England but they were very tired at the completion of the game. They had to do a lot of work to hang in there.

The attack by England in the second half of that game was quite poor. There were plenty of points on offer but England didn’t utilise those situations.

I like Tom Trbojevic for a try in this game. He’s set to start at centre and is a very talented young player, who finds his way to the tryline.

In general terms, I think Australia will win and cover the start. I can see them scoring at least eight tries in the game. On a very quick surface in Sydney, they should punish a very tired Lebanon side.

Papua New Guinea v USA (+56) – Sunday, 0500 GMT, Premier Sports

PNG have only conceded 12 points in the tournament so far. They’ve only scored 64 so their wins have not been by huge margins.

As with Tonga, I feel they’ve used up emotional energy having played in front of full houses on home soil. They did produce numerous errors against Ireland last week and looked a little bit tired.

However, USA have been terrible, the worst team in the tournament. They’ve scored just four points and both Fiji and Italy have taken their foot off the gas against them.

It’s to the anytime tryscorer market I’m turning again here with Kurt Baptiste, the hooker for Papua New Guinea, the man to back. He likes to run from dummy-half. He comes off the bench but I still expect him to get a try.

I’d prefer to back that than side with PNG on the handicaps – the start looks very high in this game. It’s a lot to cover for a team which does produce a lot of errors.

If pushed I’d go with USA to cover the start but Baptiste is the better bet.

Wales (+28) v Ireland – Sunday, 0730 GMT, Premier Sports

Ireland are very well structured, their forwards are big and dominate and they have scored some points.

They’ve definitely been better than Wales, who conceded 72 last week. They just don’t have that much quality in their team in regard to Super League and NRL players.

One thing that’s positive for Wales though is they have a very good record against the Irish, winning five of their last six clashes.

Ireland’s forwards are very good and they will establish control in the middle of the field. However, they do struggle to turn that dominance into points. Last week was also a bruising encounter against Papua New Guinea – they lost 14-6.

They are the better team here and I expect Ireland to win but I’m just a bit concerned that the start is very, very high here.

I’d prefer to back total points being unders as both teams looked tired and beaten up at the moment.

England v France (+36) – Sunday, 1000 GMT, BBC Two & Premier Sports

A couple of things for me have been very noticeable so far when it comes to England.

Their defence has been very strong in both games and has been the catalyst for them. But the attack is still a work in progress.

I’m not sure if their halves have gelled yet and they need to become better at scoring points if they are going to win the big games that are coming towards the end of the tournament.

I liked it when James Roby played in game one. I don’t think Josh Hodgson’s style at hooker is suiting England – they looked a lot better when Roby came on.

I’m very interested to see Roby play in this game – hopefully he will give them the chance to score more points.

In terms of a bet, England very much favour going to right-hand side of the field in attack – a high percentage of their play goes to the right.

With that in mind, Jermaine McGillvary is worth considering to score two or more tries. He’s been cleared to play following an alleged bite.

On the biting incident, my first reaction was he didn’t mean to do it. My second was there was no malice or anything other than he’s come up on his hand. For me, there was no intent at all so it’s right he plays here.

France tend to start very physical but in both games so far they’ve struggled in the second half to maintain that intensity.

An interesting stat ahead of this one if that England have defeated France by 28 or more points in their last five encounters – the handicap is 36 this time.

I still think they will cover that though. I believe this is a game England can use to gain confidence in attack and score some points.

Recommended bets:

2pts double New Zealand (-8) and Samoa (-36) at 2.72/1

2pts Tom Trbojevic & Viliame Kikau both to score a try at any time at 3.71/1

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Posted at 1400 GMT on 09/11/17.