Ian Millward expects favourites Melbourne Storm to prove too strong in Sunday's NRL Grand Final and he also has a man of the match selection.
Melbourne Storm v North Queensland Cowboys - 1030 BST, Premier Sports
North Queensland are right up against it in Sunday's NRL Grand Final. They finished the season in eighth and no team has ever won the big prize from that position.
Melbourne are big favourites to lift the trophy after missing out in the final seconds last year when Cronulla Sharks claimed a famous 14-12 victory.
The Storm have recovered from that disappointment in style and are a much stronger team than 12 months ago. They have been by far the best in attack and defence in the NRL.
The big three of Brandon Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater are what really makes the difference. This is Cronk's last game for the club and they can back up their quality by riding the emotional roller-coaster.
I'm really keen on Melbourne to cover a 12-point handicap but I think it will be a slow start to the game before they really pull away from North Queensland in the second half.
It also makes sense to consider unders on the points. Only two of the last 10 NRL Grand Finals have contained 42 or more points but the bookies all go heavily odds-on for below 42.5 points in this contest.
Slater is my pick for Man of the Match. He is one of the most exciting full-backs to ever play rugby league and he'll be the one to benefit from the Storm's all-round dominance.
PRICE BOOST: Slater & Cronk both to score a try. Was 5/1, NOW 7/1!
The Cowboys need to be at their best to grind the game down and have to take every opportunity for a chance of victory. I think it will prove too much for them though after a really tough path to reach this game.
Melbourne will justify favouritism with their class really showing after the half-time break.
Recommended bets
3pts Melbourne Storm (-12) to beat North Queensland Cowboys at 6/5
2pts Billy Slater to be Man of the Match in the NRL Grand Final at 7/1
Click here for our transparent tipping record.
Posted at 1145 BST on 28/09/17.
Related links
