York Ebor Festival tips: Best value bets for Wednesday August 23 on Juddmonte International Stakes day
By Matt Brocklebank
17:15 · WED August 23, 2023
The Sky Bet Ebor Festival gets under way on Wednesday and our man is on lookout for the pick of the value at York.
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Value Bet tips: Wednesday, August 23
1pt win Alligator Alley in 1.50 York at 11/1 (BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt win Haliphon in 4.10 York at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Ziggy’s Queen in 5.20 York at 20/1 (General)
Paddington to meet his match?
Rain has blighted a number of Britain’s premier Flat meetings again this year and we could easily be on weather watch again come the weekend at York, but it comes as a bit of a relief that the 2023 Sky Bet Ebor Festival is set to get going in hazy sunshine on perfect summer ground.
Wednesday's programme - the richest ever raceday staged at the track - is an absolute belter and, despite the small fields in the stakes races, lends itself to this column with its four big-field handicaps.
Of course, the purists out there would probably skip straight to the match-up between Paddington and Mostahdaf in the Juddmonte International Stakes if they could, but there are more appealing betting opportunities elsewhere on the card and I make no apologies for the fact I’ll occasionally be delving into the non-ITV action too this week, where some of the best value will inevitably lie.
Having said that, we could obviously be in for something special in the Juddmonte as Paddington is amassing the sort of three-year-old record that will put him among an elite group of horses come the end of the year. He’s also running on the quickest ground he’s ever encountered against a couple of serious Shadwell rivals in Mostahdaf and the progressive Alflaila.
Mostahdaf was tried in the Arc last year and has run a handful of times over the 12-furlong trip but his record at 10 reads 1211 and I reckon he could be a proper mile and a quarter specialist. It’s hard to argue that about Emily Upjohn and she got to within half a length of Paddington in the Coral-Eclipse, so it’s no great surprise the Gosdens are happy to have another pop at him with their four-length Prince of Wales’s hero, as well as the Falmouth winner Nashwa.
Mostahdaf looks to hold every chance of upsetting the favourite on ground we know he’ll love, but I struggle to get particularly excited about anything at that sort of price and can happily let super-sub Frankie do his thing without having a financial interest in the day’s feature.
Alley to get dream run under Tudhope
Perhaps somewhat perversely, it’s races like the Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap that I look forward to all year and I’ve had a horse in mind for this particular event right from the beginning of the season. Unusually for me, things might just have fallen perfectly into place for ALLIGATOR ALLEY.
He lost his form a bit last summer after joining David O’Meara from Joseph O’Brien and consequently wasn’t high enough in the ratings to make the cut for this contest, instead having to settle for a comfortable August victory in lesser company on his favoured fast ground at Thirsk.
It was around the turn of the year that he really caught the eye, though, stylishly racking up an all-weather hat-trick (Southwell-Wolverhampton-Southwell) before being pitched into Listed company at Lingfield and the All-Weather Sprint Championships at Newcastle on Good Friday.
Things didn’t work out for him there but he’s run some creditable races in defeat back in turf handicaps through the summer, all the while his mark has been slipping back to the low-90s.
Now 1lb lower than when kicking off the aforementioned treble at Southwell in December, he’s seriously well treated again and comes here on the back of an encouraging third behind course specialist Lord Riddiford on unsuitably soft ground at Goodwood.
He's still unexposed in the tongue-tie/visor combination after just the three goes, he’s going to love the prevailing conditions and also looks in just about the perfect spot from stall nine, right amongst the early speed horses in Bergerac (10), One Night Stand (eight), Copper Knight (six) and Intrinsic Bond (five).
The other major positive is that it doesn’t look a particularly hot renewal of the race so Alligator Alley is up there with the classiest in the field, while there are clearly few better trainers around than O’Meara when it comes to maturing handicappers, typified by the efforts of Aberama Gold, Summerghand, Muscika, Bopedro, Darkness, Soul Seeker, Rhoscolyn and a few more in recent weeks.
Haliphon home and hosed?
I’ve backed Continuous for the Leger so will hope to see positive signs from him in the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur, but fully admit that Gregory might be the Gosdens' latest unstoppable force and something of an immovable object at the top of the long-range market for the Doncaster Classic.
I won’t be betting in the six-runner Tattersalls Acomb Stakes either but the Sky Bet Stayers Handicap drew me in as soon as I saw that Joe Fanning had kept the ride on Tronador.
Fanning was placed on Gordon Elliott’s horse at Goodwood last time, coming from a long way back, meeting some trouble in the final couple of furlongs, before running on for a never-nearer third. The 52-year-old Fanning gets a chance to atone on what should be a more suitable racing surface for the horse, but my fingers are still smarting a little from last time and I’m content to look elsewhere.
The clamour to back Zanndabad is puzzling, other than he’s trained by Tony Martin and Ryan Moore takes the ride for the first time, and I'd much rather side with the back-to-form HALIPHON after his Racing League near-miss at Yarmouth last month.
He was chinned at Epsom last summer before winning here (promoted to first) and at Chester from marks of 85 and 90 respectively and it just looks a case of him becoming well handicapped again having struggled a bit earlier this campaign.
He’s gone back up 2lb for Yarmouth but bumped into a lightly-raced rival there and was just done for toe late on over the mile and three-quarters. I’ve no fears over his staying two miles around here and he looks to have seriously strong claims off a mark of 87 under Paul Hanagan.
York will rock you...
I’ll give the fillies’ handicap a miss but reckon the bet of the day might just be in the Sky Bet Nursery Handicap, in which Richard Fahey has one of the market leaders in Blue Prince.
He appeared to step up massively on what he’d shown in maiden/novice company when winning easily on nursery debut over this course and distance last month. However, there were only four rivals and he’s gone up 9lb as a result so could struggle to do the double.
I’d much rather back his stablemate ZIGGY'S QUEEN, a nicely-bred filly who went for 200,000 euros at the Arqana May breeze-up sales.
She’s run three highly encouraging races in defeat and was only short-headed when second to subsequent winner Rocket Money at Beverley last time. Her earlier form looks strong too as she was third on her Nottingham debut behind Beautiful Diamond, who runs in this week’s Group 2 Lowther having since finished third in the Queen Mary.
An opening mark of 80 could seriously underestimate Ziggy’s Queen, who has been crying out for a step up to six furlongs ever since she stepped foot on a racecourse.
She gets it here and we could be about to see the same sort of improvement made by Blue Prince, in which case she’s a massive threat to all having crept in at the foot of the weights (those below her on the card are all out of the handicap proper).
Published at 1600 BST on 22/08/23
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