York and Newmarket Tips: Best Value Bets for ITV Racing Saturday October 12
By Matt Brocklebank
16:45 · FRI October 11, 2024
Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to the competitive action from York and Newmarket on Saturday and has some big-priced horses to consider.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced 140.70pts in profit (259pts staked, ROI of 54.32%).
Value Bet tips: Saturday September 12
1pt win Dual Identity in 2.05 York at 12/1 (General)
1pt win The Bell Conductor in 2.40 York at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, bet365)
1pt win Quest For Fun in 2.40 York at 22/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred)
1pt win Dawn Rising in 3.40 Newmarket at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Evaluation in 3.40 Newmarket at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, bet365)
Take two in open-looking Cesrewitch
A trio of small-field juvenile races may be the main draw for many at Newmarket on Saturday – it is day two of the Future Champions Festival after all – but for punters it’s all about the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap.
Irish-trained horses head the market but one such horse appears to be a little overlooked and that is Joseph O’Brien’s DAWN RISING, in the second silks of last year’s winning owner JP McManus.
Dawn Rising is hardly a horse who has been hiding his light under a bushel – he’s fairly well known on both sides of the Irish Sea now having contested the 2023 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival before winning the Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot later that year.
Ryan Moore gave him an exceptional ride that day but he’s clearly a strong stayer and has only ever run in two handicaps in his life – namely the past two renewals of the Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh.
Last September he looked dead unlucky not to win, having been beaten half a length into third behind the quirky Megellan Strait (reopposes here) on ground way worse than he’d ideally want.
And after running in three conditions races earlier this season, including twice behind the top-class Kyprios, he returned for another crack at the Curragh contest late last month, catching the eye with a staying-on fifth from stall 26 in a race completely dominated by well-treated three-year-old The Euphrates, who made all the running.
Having missed an engagement at Galway after the weather turned, that recent outing was Dawn Rising’s first run since June so was entitled to be needed, and it could just tee him up beautifully for this weekend’s target.
The weather is set fair and, as the ground continues to dry out, I can only see his price going one way, with the booking of Tom Marquand something of a statement of intent too. Another wide-ish draw (18) probably wouldn’t have been chosen but history tells us it’s far from disastrous and this horse will almost certainly be staying on when others have cried enough.
The other one to play at the odds is Lucinda Russell’s EVALUATION. He came within a nose of winning the Sky Bet Sunday Series bonus pot when trained by Keith Dalgleish in 2022 before joining Charlie Johnston and just losing his way a fraction.
The Scottish air must be more his thing, though, as Russell looks to have rekindled the spark, the six-year-old winning at Wolverhampton and finishing second to Onesmoothoperator in the Northumberland Plate in the summer.
That peak all-weather effort came from a mark of 88 and he’s only running off 3lb higher this weekend so doesn’t look handicapped out of things at all, and I’m not sure the very fast ground was completely to his liking when disappointing at York’s Ebor meeting.
He just didn’t travel the same and couldn’t get competitive from off the pace (two of the first three were on the sharp end throughout) and the Mallard Handicap at Doncaster last month didn’t develop as hoped either.
A slow start put jockey Joe Fanning on the back foot and Evaluation could only stay on for a close fifth, seemingly finishing with petrol still in the tank. That was clearly a good race, the runner-up Subsequent having gone one better in a Listed race at Ascot since.
The cheekpieces worn for the first time at Doncaster are retained by Evaluation’s connections and it’s hoped a strong gallop over a marathon trip on decent ground (with no real sting in it) might just fit the bill for this one.
Dual forecast at York
York’s final meeting of the year is going to be run on far more holding ground and it could be pretty hard work for some of well-fancied three-year-olds.
Experience and all-round toughness may prove key and I like the look of hardened performer DUAL IDENTITY at the prices.
He’s six now but has been running as well as ever this season and, after winning over a mile at Sandown in May, put in eyecatching efforts both in the John Smith’s Cup here and when fifth in the big 10-furlong handicap at Goodwood’s principal meeting.
Arguably his finest effort – not just this year but of his whole career – came when runner-up to stablemate Sir Busker over this course and distance at the Ebor Festival, and I can excuse the last run as he was drawn on the wrong side in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket.
Dual Identity did still show he remains in top form, however, finishing 11th overall but second of the small group that raced close to the near side rail, and I don’t mind his wide draw here as he generally gets away well and shouldn’t be in the worst position should they tack over towards the stands on straightening for home.
Neill Callan was on board for the win earlier in the campaign and gets back up this weekend, taking over from 5lb claimer Brandon Wilkie.
Callan could be key from a tactical perspective in the Coral Sprint Trophy as he rides speed forcer Sergeant Wilko, who wasn’t best placed in the Ayr Gold Cup last time out and is better judged on his progressive summer form with ease in the ground.
From stall 11, it will be interesting to see whether Callan stays centrally or makes his move towards the stands’ side which can sometimes happen on the sprint course at York when there’s dig underfoot.
Given most of the other likely pace-setters are drawn quite high, I reckon that could be the place to be and THE BELL CONDUCTOR could outrun his odds from stall 19.
He’s always looked a genuine five-furlong sprinter but dispelled that theory to some extent with a game victory over six furlongs at Chester when last seen in August.
Not only was he proving himself over the longer trip that day, The Bell Conductor was also defying the highest mark he’s ever won off and, while not quite in the same ball park as stablemate Alfa Kellenic who has won five handicaps on the spin this term, he’s clearly another sprinter absolutely thriving in the care of local trainer Craig Lidster.
It’s not like the Chester success came out of nowhere, though, as the seven-year-old had run a good race for fifth in the Epsom Dash and again performed above market expectations (sent off 100/1) in the Wokingham. He ended up ninth at the Royal meeting but showed up well for a long way on ground that would have been far too lively.
His Pontefract win earlier this year came on a heavy surface and I make him an excellent bet here under 22-year-old William Pyle, who is looking great value for his claim which has been reduced to 3lb after he went past the 50-winner mark in recent weeks.
Amie Waugh also takes off a handy 3lb at the moment too and I can’t resist a bet on her mount QUEST FOR FUN in the same race.
Tim Easterby’s horse has developed a real liking for York in recent years, his last four starts here producing form figures of 1224, and it was fascinating to see him dropped back to six furlongs for the first time for this yard at Ripon a fortnight ago.
In spite of his middle-distance pedigree, the trip was clearly expected to suit as Quest For Fun was sent off 5/2 favourite, and the fact he only managed to finish eighth doesn’t tell the half of it as he easily won the two-runner race that played out on the far side rail but obviously wasn’t racing on the most favourable part of the course as bigger stands’ group bossed it.
He’s another drawn high (18), so I imagine we’re either bang in business or very wrong on that score, but above all this horse is just too well handicapped to ignore having slipped to his last winning mark (85) on the back of a 1lb drop for the Ripon run. Finally, it wasn't exactly off-putting to see the stable land the big sprint handicap at York with Vince L'Amour in the same silks on Friday.
Published at 1600 BST on 11/10/24
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