Will William Haggas change his mind over brilliant Dante winner Economics running in the Betfred Derby?

Remarkably, after a hugely impressive six-length winner of the Dante Stakes at York, the best-backed horse for the Derby on the same afternoon was one that finished ninth in the 2000 Guineas. We’re two weeks and two days away from the Derby, and it remains a bit of a mess.

Economics, in most other years, would be a strong favourite for Epsom right now. The son of Night Of Thunder dwarfed his rivals in the parade ring and he dwarfed them in the Dante itself as well, tanking along down the outside before powering away for a most dominant success.

York, warm for the most part, hot in places, had witnessed one of those Dante winners that just screamed ‘hello Yorkshire folk, I’m your Derby winner,’ as the likes of North Light, Authorized, Motivator and Golden Horn had done before him.

But Houston, we have a problem. And that problem is Economics is not in the Derby. Added to that problem is the fact he was in the Derby, but was taken out by his trainer, William Haggas, to avoid the temptation of running in the Derby. He doesn’t strike me as a man who will change his mind.

Haggas wasn’t at York for the race, with wife Maureen left fielding the obvious questions, and while she left the door open for a swift turnaround (“we’ll see about the Derby, it’s not my department”) you got the impression the trainer will not be about to change tack now.

“He’s beautiful, but still a baby,” she said, looking a picture of positivity in pink-feathered jacket and heart-shaped sunglasses, but her assessment of Economics’ chances of lining up at Epsom were not so rosy.

“You've got to be switched on to go around there [Epsom] and it's a big ask for any horse. We took him out [of the Derby] because we didn’t think he’d stay and I’m still not sure he would.”

It’s not looking good, is it? He could go to the French Derby, over 10 furlongs, or the Irish Derby, or the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown, while the Juddmonte International, over the Dante track and trip here at York in August, looks a race which his trainer can work back from.

But then again, there is only one Derby. And Haggas has won it once, 28 years ago, with Shaamit, or “it was that long ago I’ve almost forgotten what it was like,” as Maureen put it.

That could be key. Of course, the owner will have a big say, but if it comes down to Haggas and, let's presume it does, then the fact he’s gone 28 years without winning the race that all English trainers want to win might well come into it. After all, he’ll know the history of the Dante Stakes and its impressive winners better than anyone.

There is some relevant recent history here, too. In 2015 Golden Horn won the Dante by two-and-three-quarter lengths and he wasn’t in the Derby either. Owner Anthony Oppenheimer was far from convinced he’d stay on pedigree grounds and on the day of the Dante it was up in the air.

Of course, Golden Horn was supplemented for £75,000 at Epsom (it’s the same fee now, with a cool £850,000 going to the Derby winner) and he won doing cartwheels under Frankie Dettori, before landing three more Group 1 successes including a memorable Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

It was a fine season, but it all started in the Derby, the race where he proved himself above his peers, so there’s food for thought for all connected with Economics, with the doubts about his staying power somewhat eased after this, given he was so strong to the line.

With severe doubts about the Dante winner running in the Derby it was City Of Troy who was backed into clear Derby favouritism on the afternoon, now a best of 11/4, what with trials season serving up a mixed bag, including the unfortunate fatality of Hidden Law and now the seemingly likely non-participation of Economics.

But there is Godolphin, with Charlie Appleby minding the second favourite, Arabian Crown, as well as the Dante second, Ancient Wisdom, who gleamed in the York sunshine as he was washed down afterwards.

He ran okay in second, staying on well to earn that position, but Appleby was in no doubt about who the Godolphin number one is heading into Epsom, adding the caveat “unless this fellow comes forward massively in the next week or so."

Appleby explained how Arabian Crown had been much more forward this spring and that Ancient Wisdom had taken a while to come to himself, but he seemed happy with the run, adding that William Buick would have an easy choice should both Dubawi colts go to Epsom “unless this fellow does a fantastic piece of work a week on Saturday, or something."

A second caveat. The 2024 Derby remains full of ifs and buts. But £75,000 for a potential £850,000 and the glory of winning the Derby, you say? We could conclude it's all down to Economics, but really, it’s all down to William Haggas.

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