Analyst Graeme North uses Timeform’s unique data to highlight which runners in the Grand National are the best jumpers.
Much as a form rating expresses a horse’s merit, ‘jumpability’ assigns a rating to a chaser that expresses its jumping prowess and is calculated by utilising data that exists within the Timeform database.
Timeform records ‘in-play symbols’ – and the two symbols that interest us for 'jumpability' are x (or X) and j (or J). Long-time readers will be familiar with the x as it sometimes appears alongside a rating (or by itself) in the Timeform racecard, denoting a poor jumper. In contrast, a j signifies that the horse jumped well or, if awarded a J, outstandingly well.
The more ‘good jumping data’ the horse has accrued, the higher the ‘jumpability’ rating. These figures are then averaged over the number of starts the horse has had over fences before undergoing a final revision for those who have had limited experience over fences. Those interested in a more thorough explanation will find it here.
By its very nature, ‘jumpability’ should be most useful as a complement to form ratings at tracks where the fences are the stiffest. True, the famed Aintree fences are not what they were but they still take some jumping and, even taking into account races only since 2016, the course is still the one in Britain and Ireland where by our reckoning the highest percentage of runners are drawn into making mistakes (the Old Course at Cheltenham is next on the list, followed by Fakenham and Ludlow).
The good news for those who have backed the officially ‘well-in’ clear ante-post favourite Cloth Cap is that not only is he comfortably clear on Timeform ratings, he is even further clear on ‘jumpability’ ratings too as the table above illustrates. His high ‘jumpability’ rating isn’t a recent development as he was top on that metric back in November in the Ladbrokes Trophy, but he has driven that rating higher since by dint of a superb round of jumping at Newbury and a largely flawless display at Kelso. Stamina won’t be an issue given he finished third in the Scottish National as a seven-year-old, and even taking the view that his Kelso win last time might have been heavier on style than substance, able to dictate a modest gallop against ageing rivals, the best of whom Aso did nothing for the form in the Betway Bowl on Thursday, he clearly has plenty going for him. All things considered, he probably deserves to be favourite, but whether he represents value at around 9-2 when he could have been backed at 9-1 in what used to be known as the Hennessy off a mark 12lb lower is something to mull over.
Next best on ‘jumpability’ is Hogan’s Height who is proven over the fences having won the Grand Sefton back in 2019. He was a leading fancy for the abandoned 2020 National, but he comes here after an abject effort in the Cross Country at Cheltenham that might be explained by losing two shoes.
Neither of the next two in the list make significant appeal. Lake View Lad has shown next to nothing in his last two races (including behind Cloth Cap last time) and was pulled up in the National in 2019 off near enough the same mark, whereas 2017 National fourth Blaklion is a player on back form but has run only mildly encouragingly this year.
Sub Lieutenant could go well at a big price. He finished second in the Topham in 2019 when trained by Henry de Bromhead and hasn’t looked a back number in two runs for his new yard. He’d probably be a fair bit shorter if still with his old yard.
Two others in the top dozen who do make plenty of appeal, however, are stable-companions Burrows Saint and Acapella Bourgeois. They have crossed swords on more than one occasion, most recently in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February where Acapella Bourgeois made all at a strong pace and beat Burrows Saint by nearly five lengths conceding him 6lb. Burrows Saint had Acapella Bourgeois back in third when winning the Irish Grand National in 2019 and overall there’s very little to choose between these two high-class chasers on form or jumping prowess.
Just because many other leading fancies, such as the powerful J P McManus trio Minella Times, Any Second Now and Kimberlite Candy, don’t appear in the top 15 ‘jumpability’ horses doesn’t mean they are not proficient jumpers – they all have positive ratings but haven’t drawn themselves to our attention as much as others. Only three horses in the line-up (Canelo, Lord Du Mesnil and Cabaret Queen) have a negative rating. Cabaret Queen is relatively easy to put a line through after running a stinker at Cheltenham last time, but in their defence the other two have been a bit slicker over fences this season, not least Lord Du Mesnil who formerly had an ‘x’ (denoting a poor jumper) attached to his Timeform rating.
In summary, Cloth Cap looks the most likely winner, but price is everything of course and at the odds there looks to be value in Acapella Bourgeois. There’s very little between him and Burrows Saint on more than one bit of form but whereas Burrows Saint is trading at 10s, Acapella Bourgeois is available at 33-1. His rider Danny Mullins has been riding at the top of his game in Ireland lately, and he looks overpriced.
Recommendation:
Back Acapella Bourgeois each-way at 33/1
More on the 2021 Grand National
- Full 2021 Grand National guide
- Full racecard & free video form
- Ben Linfoot's Pinsticker's Guide
- Grand National trends preview
- Alex Hammond: National shortlist
- Sporting Life & Timeform shortlist
- Cornelius Lysaght: Great Nationals
- Podcast special: Richard Pitman
- Antepost Angle: Grand National
- Grand National: Tips Centre
- Grand National: All our features
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