Which horses are 'well-in' for the 2023 Randox Grand National at Aintree?
Tony McFadden highlights the Randox Grand National contenders who would be running off higher marks if the BHA handicapper could consider performances since the release of the weights.
Corach Rambler (BHA rating +10)
There were 34 horses entered in the Grand National that competed at the Cheltenham Festival but it's clear which one enhanced their Aintree claims to the greatest extent.
Corach Rambler followed up last season's victory in the Ultima Handicap Chase in a stronger renewal this time around, winning with more in hand than the margin of a neck would suggest as he idled badly after he had produced a striking turn of foot to hit the front.
He was beating well-handicapped horses, too, as he was chased home by the unexposed Fastorslow, who produced much his best effort yet over fences, while the progressive and prolific Monbeg Genius was two lengths back in third. That trio pulled eight and a half lengths clear of the remainder, highlighting how they were a fair way ahead of their marks.
Corach Rambler is set to run off a BHA mark of 146 at Aintree, which translates to 10-5 if Any Second Now stands his ground as expected, but he would be running off 156 and carrying 11-1 had the BHA handicapper been able to take his Cheltenham performance into account.
Timeform's handicappers have taken a similarly positive view of Corach Rambler's performance at Cheltenham and he is now 4 lb clear at the head of Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the Grand National, highlighting his obvious chance on these terms.
Our Power (BHA +6)
Our Power would be well treated if running in the Grand National having defied a BHA rating of 141 rating to win the valuable Coral Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton after the release of the weights in February.
It's possible his connections might actually be rueing the fact the race was run after the release of the Grand National weights, however, as a mark of 141 wouldn't usually be enough to secure a starting berth and he is only 55th on the list for a contest with a maximum field of 40.
Another factor to consider when assessing his chance is that, unless the weights rise, he will be 2 lb out of the handicap and effectively running off a mark of 143. That's unlikely to concern connections, though, as it's still 4 lb lower than his revised BHA rating of 147 following his Kempton success.
Mr Incredible (BHA +5)
Mr Incredible has questions to answer around his temperament - he refused to race for his previous yard - but there's little doubt he's potentially well handicapped off a mark of 145, which means he'll be carrying 10-4 at Aintree if at least one of the top weights compete.
Mr Incredible would be running off a mark of 150 and carrying 10-9 had the BHA handicapper been able to factor in his latest effort at Cheltenham, where he finished third in a strong-looking edition of the Kim Muir in which the placings were filled by progressive novices from Ireland.
His quirks were evident in that display as he didn't seem to be giving his all on the run-in after making a mistake at the last, but the rate at which he was making ground on the approach to that obstacle suggests he's a well-handicapped horse.
His Timeform rating has been left unchanged since his Kim Muir effort, but that's because Timeform had taken a higher view than the BHA of his runner-up effort in the Classic Chase at Warwick. Indeed, he was Timeform top-rated in the Kim Muir.
Vanillier (BHA +3)
Vanillier, an impressive winner of the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle a couple of seasons ago, perhaps hasn't hit the heights expected of him since going chasing but he produced his most encouraging effort yet over fences when finishing runner-up in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last month, a contest often used as a stepping stone to the Grand National by Irish trainers as it takes place after the release of the weights.
It's difficult to weigh up exactly what Vanillier achieved at Fairyhouse as getting to within half a length of Kemboy when giving him 8 lb reads well, though the proximity of the third, who had been rated much lower and was sent off an unconsidered 33/1 shot, complicates matters.
Vanillier would be running off a 3 lb higher mark in the Grand National had the BHA handicapper been able to take the Fairyhouse effort into account.
Timeform's handicapper has taken a similar view as his Timeform rating is 3 lb higher than it was heading into Fairyhouse, though he also has the + symbol to denote that form could be rated even higher.
Delta Work (BHA +1)
Delta Work is running in the Grand National off a BHA mark of 159, which is 1 lb lower than the rating he competed off in last year's race when finishing a creditable third. He would be back off a mark of 160, though, had the BHA handicapper been able to consider his defeat of stablemate Galvin in the Glenfarclas Chase over Cheltenham's cross-country course last week.
Delta Work will be receiving 7 lb from Galvin at Aintree but got the better of him off level weights at Cheltenham to make it back-to-back victories in the race. Incidentally, Galvin is now rated 6 lb lower by the BHA handicapper than the mark he will compete from in the Grand National, though his supporters can take solace that he at least showed some spark again at Cheltenham and, as a sound jumper and strong stayer, appeals as the type to be suited by the sort of test the race provides.
Delta Work figures prominently on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the Grand National and is behind only Corach Rambler - and level with Vanillier - in the pecking order. Timeform's handicapper has taken a higher view than the BHA of the level the five-time Grade 1 winner is still capable of producing.
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