Our Ben Linfoot takes a look at the main players and some interesting outsiders given it's all change in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe betting after a key weekend.
The best of the home team
How good are the home team? The antepost market suggests very good, with Sosie and Look De Vega heading the betting, with a horse that split the pair in Sunday’s Qatar Prix Niel, Delius, also available at single-figure prices.
That trio are three-year-olds and perhaps this is an indication of the lack of strength in depth of this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. The older horse challenge is threadbare and other horses from the Classic generation that would shake up the top of the market – namely City Of Troy and Calandagan - are either being pointed elsewhere or prohibited from running.
With that in mind you can see why Sosie has found himself at the head of the betting. In most years he wouldn’t be, but he’s three from three at Longchamp, his Grand Prix de Paris success has worked out well and he’s just beaten two of his main rivals in a key trial with the minimum of fuss.
Trained by the legendary Andre Fabre, who went the Grand Prix de Paris – Prix Niel – Arc route with Rail Link in 2006, this son of Sea The Stars stays the trip well and he might be capable of even better after just six starts.
It’s hard to see Delius reversing the form with Sosie after being put in his place by the same horse on his last two runs, but the Look De Vega camp might have other ideas. He has a verdict over Sosie in the Prix du Jockey Club and he didn’t look comfortable making his own running in the Niel on his first start in over three months.
The well-fancied French-trained trio look talented and lightly-raced and capable of more, but you can’t help but feel they’ve been well found in this market, perhaps on the back of Ace Impact’s win last year.
He was the first French-trained three-year-old to win the Arc since Treve in 2013, though, so it could pay to cast the net a bit wider in the search for this year’s winner.
The Irish Champion challenge
Even though it was Arc trials day at ParisLongchamp on Sunday, you could argue the most significant pointer to this year’s Arc came 24 hours earlier in the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown.
Now the market has settled down both third home Shin Emperor and the fourth, Los Angeles, are priced up at a general 8/1 and it’s hard to argue against both having a similar chance for the Paris showpiece.
If I had to side with one now it would be the Japanese challenger, as he was denied room at a crucial stage whereas Los Angeles made his move in open space out wide and Yoshito Yahagi’s horse was having his first run in almost four months.
Whether we should believe that he was only 70-80% fit is another matter, but it’s reasonable to expect further improvement in the fitness department come the first Sunday in October and I wouldn’t hold his lack of experience on softer ground against him, either.
After all, his full-brother, Sottsass, won the Arc on heavy ground and who knows, Shin Emperor might even improve for autumnal conditions. The Japanese have been knocking on the door in this race for years now and this son of Siyouni could be the one.
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The fillies & mares
Fillies and mares have won nine of the last 16 Arcs but their challenge looks weaker this time around.
The one that has shot herself into contention is Ralph Beckett’s Bluestocking, who has completely transformed herself from bridesmaid to the bride from three to four, turning a penchant for finishing second into a season of impressive wins.
Her defeats haven’t been bad either, her King George second and Juddmonte International fourth reading well, while her Qatar Prix Vermeille win on Sunday ticked the Longchamp box nicely.
We know she likes soft ground and she looks rock-solid to run well. But is there a single piece of form that suggests she is good enough to win an Arc? I still think she needs to find further improvement.
Aventure looked the likely winner of the Vermeille two furlongs from home on Sunday but was outbattled by Bluestocking at the business end, while Mqse De Sevigne would be a fascinating contender for Fabre.
A five-time Group 1 winner over shorter distances, she will have to prove herself at the trip but is very much bred for it and is related to a trio of 1m4f winners.
The German form
Danedream and Torquator Tasso have won the Arc for Germany since 2011 and Alpinista was a product of the German race programme two years ago, too, so it can pay to keep an eye on the Deutschland action.
Joseph O’Brien’s Al Riffa was second to last year’s Arc winner, Ace Impact, at Deauville before his conqueror won in Paris and while his four-year-old campaign took a few runs to catch fire he has hit his very best form on his last two starts.
He gave City Of Troy a big scare in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown in July and then improved on that on his first go at 1m4f when running away with the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Verlin at Hoppegarten.
Narrativo was a five-length second that day and he came out and finished a similar distance behind Fantastic Moon in the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Baden at Baden-Baden on September 1.
Well beaten in 11th in last year’s Arc, Fantastic Moon looks to have found another gear at four, but connections have expressed fears of soft ground for this horse and we might need a dry autumn to see him turn up in Paris for the Arc again.
The staying wildcard
Given the way the Arc is shaping up it’s no wonder there have been cries for Kyprios in the Arc again and he provided a timely reminder of his attributes over 1m6f in Sunday’s Irish St. Leger.
Aidan O’Brien has done a typically brilliant job in bringing him back from injury and he has looked more convincing with every run this season his way to a five out of five campaign.
Beating Vauban and Giavellotto as convincingly he did over a mile and three quarters somewhat brings the Arc back into the conversation and his outstanding Prix du Cadran demolition job at Longchamp remains a career highlight.
Another Ballydoyle stayer, Order Of St George, was placed in a couple of Arcs behind Found and Enable and, I’ll put it like this, I wouldn’t be laying him at 33/1. Not this year.
The most interesting outsiders
Finally, there are lots of outsiders to pick from but I’ll highlight two in this space.
Firstly, O’Brien again, as his Continuous remains on the radar despite his defeat in third in Sunday’s Qatar Prix Foy.
Fifth in last year’s Arc after winning the St Leger, he has had a stop-start campaign and while an odds-on defeat in the trial isn’t ideal he’ll be happier being dropped in amongst a bigger field and he should come on fitness-wise after just his third run of the year.
He’s available at 50/1 for the Arc and so is Al Hakeem who is arguably the forgotten horse in the betting.
Jean-Claude Rouget’s five-year-old was a close-up fourth in Alpinista’s Arc as a three-year-old and has had just three runs since after a long absence.
A low-key return after 427 days off at Longchamp in June, where he was second to the gelding Calif, who won a German Group 1 from Fantastic Moon subsequently, was followed by a Group 2 victory at Deauville last month.
That was still someway off his three-year-old best and he still looked a little ring rusty, but if he comes on from that and is anywhere near his 2022 form he comes into calculations.
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