Welsh Grand National preview and tips for Chepstow feature on December 27
Antepost Value Bet tips: Monday, December 27
1pt e.w. The Big Dog in Welsh Grand National at 20/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4)
There’s always been something particularly powerful about witnessing horses defy top weight to win valuable handicap chases and, when it comes to the Coral Welsh Grand National, we’ve been here before with Native River.
Colin Tizzard’s 11-year-old tops the list of acceptors for the December 27 showpiece after the publication of the weights earlier this week, and connections have already suggested Chepstow could well be a realistic back-up plan should Aintree not receive enough rain in the build-up to the chestnut’s intended seasonal reappearance in next weekend’s Many Clouds Chase.
Horses like him do not come along very often, and were he to complete the Welsh National double five years on from his first, having landed the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the interim, it would be hard not to draw comparisons with the magnificent Denman, who landed two ‘Hennessys’ under 11-12 either side of winning Cheltenham’s biggest race in 2008.
In 2016 Native River arrived in Monmouthshire having won his own Hennessy at Newbury, and a quirk in the race conditions for Chepstow, meaning his weight couldn’t increase any further, saw him escape any sort of penalty and duly won as the 8lb well-in 11/4 favourite.
Defying a mark of 155 on those two occasions, his official rating maxed out at 176 after winning the Gold Cup and despite claiming three level-weights Grade Two chases since, he’s now down to 166 for what would be his first handicap start since those 2016 heroics (it’s worth highlighting a wide-margin win at Aintree next Saturday would most likely mean he’d be ahead of the handicapper once again at Chepstow).
I’ve little doubt he can run up to a figure of 166 – he probably exceeded that when beating Bristol De Mai in the rescheduled Cotswold Chase at Sandown in February – but it’s hard to argue he’d have much in hand and even if he does turn up here, which depends largely on the state of the ground, ease underfoot is going to play to the strengths of several others. I'm sure you can sense I've dragged my feet a little, but he's just about a pass at 25/1.
Last year’s winner Secret Reprieve remains on a good-looking mark (140) and is ideally suited by the race, having also won the big trial at the same venue last December, while Harry Fry’s Ask Me Early is also prominent in the market having returned to action with a novice hurdle win at Exeter at the start of the month. Like Evan Williams' horse, he too is a perfect 2-2 over fences at Chepstow.
The Jonjo O’Neill-trained Time To Get Up made a relatively inauspicious seasonal reappearance when seeming to hate every minute of the Grand Sefton, although it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see the impressive Midlands National winner leave that run well behind in time.
The Midlands National is never the worst pointer when looking for a Welsh National type and a few who finished in behind at Uttoxeter – the likes of Mighty Thunder, Highland Hunter and Achile – are reasonable candidates, though all three still have the option of the Becher Chase at Aintree beforehand.
Midlands National fourth Screaming Colours is one of four Irish-trained entries for Chepstow and the lightly-raced 11-year-old looks potentially well-handicapped after proving his well-being with a pleasing comeback second at Cork.
However, there’s no way THE BIG DOG should be a bigger price than Screaming Colours based on the fact he beat the latter in the Punchestown Grand National Trial in February and will be 3lb better off if the pair are both declared this Christmas.
Trainer Peter Fahey was thrust into the limelight when claiming his first Grade One win through Belfast Banter at Aintree last season and he looks to have a cracking stayer chaser on his hands here too. The Big Dog can’t have the ground testing enough but he’s totally unexposed in marathon races and the National Trial win (3m4f) was the furthest he's ever gone.
He was no match for Eklat De Rire on his return to competitive action at Wexford last month but he’s tended to take a run or two to reach his peak anyway, and it’s interesting to note his only other engagement at this stage is in a handicap hurdle at Navan next Saturday.
Connections are clearly keen to protect his mark, which doesn’t look too harsh at all (147), and if the mud is flying come Chepstow then it could be a double boost to his claims as Native River also turning up would mean The Big Dog carries just 10-7.
He’s the wrong price at 20/1 and merits an each-way interest.
Published at 1400 GMT on 28/11/21
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