Five bets for our man Chris Day at Ascot on Saturday including 16/1 and 25/1 chances against Stradivarius.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Morando in 1.20 Ascot Saturday at 16/1
1pt e.w. Trueshan in 1.20 Ascot Saturday at 25/1
1pt e.w. Happy Power in 1.55 Ascot Saturday at 16/1
1pt win Antonia De Vega in 2.30 Ascot Saturday at 6/1
1pt win River Nymph in 4.15 Ascot Saturday at 14/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The first race on QIPCO Champions Day, the Long Distance Cup, is by far the most interesting from a betting point of view with Stradivarius bidding to atone for his nose defeat to Kew Gardens here last year.
We all know John Gosden's charge will be talked about long after his career is over as a triple Gold Cup winner and he’s priced up accordingly, but I can’t believe a couple of trips to Paris to contest top mile-and-a-half races are ideal preparations for the weekend.
Likewise dual Irish St Leger winner Search For A Song has no form to talk about on soft ground, yet she’s a clear second favourite for Dermot Weld, who has been enjoying a great autumn. Still I’m not sure her form entitles her to be as short as she is plus she’s never been further than the St Leger distance.
Fujairah Prince was a brave second to her at the Curragh having previously won at Royal Ascot and York’s Sky Bet Ebor but he didn’t look like he was crying out to go further in any of those races and he’s not much different to a few of these on ratings,. Indeed some of those rivals may improve significantly for the step up in trip on soft ground.
Spanish Mission won a far less competitive Doncaster Cup than he’s going to get here and soft ground isn’t guaranteed to help so he is passed over at these odds.
Everything about MORANDO’s run at Chester last time cried 'next time' and he was a very impressive winner of a soft ground Group Three here over a mile-and-a-half last October. He’s clearly had this as his target all season and should be primed to run his race whereas a few of these have been knocking spots off each other elsewhere this campaign.
The other horse I think who should improve for the combination of a step up in trip on soft ground is Alan King’s TRUESHAN, who didn’t really get the run of the race at York but made amends when running away with a Salisbury conditions contest last time and has put together a very progressive profile.
He won a big three-year-old handicap here last October and has plenty of soft and heavy ground form so I’d have to be interested each-way at 25/1.
The following race, the Champions Sprint Stakes, a Group One over six furlongs, sees Dream Of Dreams try to win a top-level prize over a course and distance where he’s twice been denied in a photo finish to the Golden Jubilee Stakes at the Royal Meeting.
He won his Group One convincingly at Haydock last time and deserves to be favourite on all known form with conditions expected to suit.
After him, though, there are question marks about a few at the head of the betting.
Triple Prix de la Foret winner One Master is surely better over further and had a very hard race in Paris two weekends ago.
Oxted is thought to want fast ground to show his best which was very good in the July Cup, Glen Shiel keeps improving but is short of what's needed here on what he’s achieved before. Starman looks priced up on potential rather than the substance of his form and Lope Y Fernandez seems to be going nowhere.
King Power have Art Power entered here but the three-year-old has fluffed his lines since stepping up to this level and I think there’s some mileage in their other entry, the four-year-old HAPPY POWER, who travelled strongly when winning Newmarket’s Group Two Challenge Stakes last Friday, completing a hat trick over seven furlongs.
Andrew Balding won this with another established seven furlong performer in Donjuan Triumphant and I could see a stiff six furlongs on soft ground being this horse’s cup of tea.
Silverstre De Sousa, the owner’s retained jockey, is already booked for the ride and I expect him to outrun his currently available odds of 20/1 and make him the each-way play of the race.
The market for the QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, another Group One over a mile-and-a-half, is skewed by Magical still having an entry.
She beat Ghaiyyath in the Irish Champion Stakes last time, miles the best form on offer here, and if you knew she was going to run, the advice would be to have your maximum on at 3/1 but surely she’ll take on the big boys on in the Champion Stakes later.
The fact is that everything else is pretty much of a muchness apart from her but I thought Ralph Beckett’s ANTONIA DE VEGA won quite cosily at Newmarket last time after which the trainer spoke effusively about her, even mooting a possible trip to Paris over the Arc weekend.
He certainly seemed to think she was a Group One filly and he’s had a few of those so I’d be prepared to have a bit of the 6/1 on offer now.
The trouble with the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, from a betting point of view, is that both three-year-olds Palace Pier and Kameko are miles ahead of the rest of the field on ratings and both likely to give their running.
For what it’s worth I think John Gosden’s colt will win and confirm Ascot superiority over the Guineas winner, but some races are good enough to watch without having a bet and this is one.
Similar comments really apply to the QIPCO Champions Stakes and while Mishriff has to improve to beat Magical if she turns up, I wouldn’t bet against it but that doesn’t leave much for punters seeking some each-way value with only one place to play for. I'll give the race a swerve.
The Balmoral Handicap over a mile, due off at 4.15, could potentially be run on heavy ground being the last race on the card and no horse will be better equipped than Raising Sand, who has put in some sterling efforts here in the last couple of seasons.
The one I think with the biggest upside though is Clive Cox’s RIVER NYMPH, who was favourite for a seven furlong handicap on the abandoned card a couple of weeks ago.
Very few trainers have been in better form than Cox of late and this horse, who won a seven furlong handicap here in July, then followed up in equally taking fashion at Newbury over this trip last time out.
The second that day, Tranchee, won his next race and finished second when going off favourite for a red-hot York handicap on Saturday from an 8lbs higher mark. There was daylight to the third at Newbury and that horse, Danyah, won last time so the form looks rock solid.
If there’s a doubt it’s his stamina which isn’t guaranteed on pedigree but I think his class and relaxed style of racing should enable him to at least equal what he’s already done which might be enough anyway so 14/1 makes him my last bet of the day.
Preview posted 1620 BST on 12/10/2020